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Dr. Mathieu Vrac

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS)

Centre d'etude de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Bat. 701
91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FRANCE

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Publications (+Thesis & HDR)   Teaching   CV   Academic activities   Links   R packages

Actual position

My main research interests are

Academic jobs



Academic (co-)supervisions

   PhD students:

   Master students:

  Post-docs :

Academic and associative activities

Peer-reviewed Publications


Articles submitted or in revision


Articles in preparation


Articles published, in press or accepted




70. Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobaek Haff, I., Widmann, M., Vrac, M. (2017) Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Compound Events via Pair-Copula Constructions: Analysis of Floods in Ravenna (Italy). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, 2017,

69. Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Vrac, M., Adjoua, M.F., Sultan, B., Swingedouw, D., Dumas, C., Gemenne, F., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Vanderlinden, J.-P. (2017) Consequences of rapid ice-sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Accepted in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).

68. Burke, A., Kageyama, M., Latombe, G., Fasel, M., Vrac, M., Ramstein, G., James, P. (2017) Risky business: the impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Las Glacial Maximum. In press in Quaternary Science Reviews, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.04.001.

67. Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Otto, F., Vautard, R. and Vrac, M. (2017) A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution. In press in Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography (ASCMO).

66. Volosciuk, C., Maraun, D., Vrac, M. and Widmann, M. (2017) A Combined Statistical Bias Correction and Stochastic Downscaling Method for Precipitation. In press in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).



65. Panthou, G., Vrac, M., M., Drobinski, P., Bastin, S., Li, L. (2016) Impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling on hydrometeorological extremes in RCMs in the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX. In press in Climate Dynamics.

64. Vrac, M., Vaittinada Ayar, P. (2016) Influence of bias correcting predictors on statistical downscaling models. In press in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

63. Pernin, J., Vrac, M., M., Crevoisier, C., Chédin, A. Mixture model-based air mass classification: A probabilistic view of thermodynamic profiles. In press in Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography (ASCMO).

62. Vrac, M., Noël, T., Vautard, R. Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because Occurrences matter. In press in JGR-Atmosphere.

61. Grouillet, B., Ruelland, D., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M. (2016) Sensitivity analysis of runoff modeling to statistical downscaling models in the western  Mediterranean. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 1031-1047, doi: 10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016.



60. Goore Bi, E., Gachon, P., Vrac, M., Monette, F. (2015). Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of Current approaches and Trends. Accepted in Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

59. Troin, M., Vrac, M., Khodri, M., Caya, S., Vallet-Coulomb, C., Piovano, E., Sylvestre, F. (2015). A complete hydro-climate model chain to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variability in subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina), Accepted by Climate Dynamics.

58. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Carreau, J., Déqué, M., Gallardo, C. (2015) Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: Present climate evaluations. Accepted by Climate Dynamics.

57. A. Bechler, M. Vrac, L. Bel (2015). A spatial hybrid approach for downscaling of extreme precipitation fields. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmosphere. Accepted.

56. A. Bechler, L. Bel, M. Vrac (2015). Conditional simulations of extremal t process for fields of extreme precipitation. Spatial Statistics. Accepted.



55. I. Tobin, R. Vautard , I. Balog , F.-M. Bréon , S. Jerez , P. Ruti , F. Thais , M. Vrac , P. Yiou (2014). Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Accepted by Climatic Change (pdf soon).

54. M. Vrac and P. Friederichs. Multivariate - Inter-variable, spatial and temporal - bias correction. Accepted by Journal of Climate (preprint, R package ECBC_1.1.tar.gz).

53. J. Eden, M. Widmann, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, (2014). Comparison of GCM- and RCM-simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 119, 11,04011,053, doi:10.1002/2014JD021732.

52. G. Wong, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, M. Widmann, J. Eden, T. Kent (2014). Stochastic model output statistics for bias correcting and downscaling precipitation including extremes. Accepted by Journal of Climate.

51. P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut (2014). Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781-1785. Accepted by Climate of the Past.

50. A. Burke, G. Levavasseur, P. James, D. Guiducci, M. Izquierdo, L. Bourgeon, M. Kageyama, G. Ramstein and M. Vrac (2014). Exploring the impact of climate variability on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Accepted by Journal of Human Evolution.



49. M. Kallache, P. Naveau and M. Vrac (2013). Spatial extreme droughts assessment in the Duero basin (central Spain) with multivariate extreme value statistics. Accepted by Water Resources Research.

48. H. Rust, M. Vrac, B. Sultan, M. Lengaigne (2013). Mapping Weather-Type Influence on Senegal Precipitation Based on a Spatial–Temporal Statistical Model*. J. Climate, 26, 8189–8209. doi:

47. E. Bernard, P. Naveau, M. Vrac and O. Mestre (2013). Clustering of maxima: Spatial dependencies among heavy rainfall in France. Accepted by Journal of Climate (pdf soon).

46. M. Vrac, P. Vaittinada Ayar and P. Yiou (2013): Trends and variability of seasonal weather regimes. Int. J. Climatol., 34: 472–480. doi: 10.1002/joc.3700 (pdf soon).

45. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, J. Guiot (2013): An objective methodology for potential vegetation reconstruction constrained by climate. Accepted by Global and Planetary Change (pdf soon).

44. N. Vigaud, M. Vrac, Y. Caballero (2013): Probabilistic Downscaling of GCM scenarios over southern India. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, issue 5, 1248-1263, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3509 (pdf soon).



43. R. Vautard, T. Noël, L. Li, M. Vrac, E. Martin, P. Dandin, J. Cattiaux and S. Joussaume (2012): Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France. Accepted by Clim. Dyn. (pdf soon).

42. P. Yiou, T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, L. Menut, R. Vautard, M. Vrac (2012): Ensemble reconstruction of the atmospheric column from surface pressure using analogues.  Accepted by Clim. Dyn. (pdf soon).

41. A. Colette, C. Granier, Ø. Hodnebrog, H. Jakobs, A. Maurizi, A. Nyiri, S. Rao, M. Amann, B. Bessagnet, A. D'Angiola, M. Gauss, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, F. Meleux, M. Memmesheimer, A. Mieville, L. Rouïl, F. Russo, S. Schucht, D. Simpson, F. Stordal, F. Tampieri, and M. Vrac (2012): Future Air Quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1–18, 2012,, doi:10.5194/acp-12-1-2012 (pdf soon).

40. E. Flaounas, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, S. Bastin, C. Lebeaupin-Brossier, M. Stefanon, M. Borga, J.-C. Calvet (2012): Precipitation and temperature space–time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region: evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1558-y (download the pdf).

39. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard (2012). Statistical modelling of a new global potential vegetation distribution. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 044019 (11pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044019 (download the pdf).

38. M. Vrac, P. Drobinski, A. Merlo, M. Herrmann, C. Lavaysse, L. Li, S. Somot (2012): Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2769-2784,, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012 (see the website or download the pdf).

37. A. Colette, R. Vautard, M. Vrac (2012): Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate forcing (2012). Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 39, L13707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052258 (download the pdf).

36. F. C. Sperna Weiland, C. Tisseuil, H. H. Dürr, M. Vrac, and L. P. H. van Beek (2012). Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 983-1000, doi:10.5194/hess-16-983-2012 (download the pdf).

35. C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, G. Grenouillet, M. Gevrey, T. Oberdorff, A.J. Wade, S. Lek (2012): 'Strengthening the link between hydro-climatic downscaling and species distribution modelling: Climate change impacts on freshwater biodiversity', Science of the Total Environment (STOTEN), 424, 193-201, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.035(download the pdf).

34. Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Drobinski, P., Lengaigne, M., and Vischel, T. (2012): Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 651-670, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-651-2012, 2012 (download the pdf)

33. C. Tisseuil, F. Leprieur, G. Grenouillet, M. Vrac, S. Lek (2012). 'Projected impacts of climate change on spatio-temporal patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity: a deconstructing approach'. Accepted by Global Ecology and Biogeography (pdf soon).



32. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, A. Martin, J. Vandenberghe (2011). 'Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling'. Climate of the Past, 7, 1225-1246, doi:10.5194/cp-7-1225-2011 (download the paper).

31. J. Carreau, M. Vrac (2011). "Stochastic downscaling of precipitation with neural network conditional mixture models". Water Resources Research, 47, W10502, doi:10.1029/2010WR010128 (pdf). See also the "hparetomixt" R package.

30. I. Bentaleb, C. Martin, M. Vrac, B. Mate, P. Mayzaud, R. de Stephanis, C. Guinet (2011). "Foraging ecology of Mediterranean fin whales in a changing environment elucidated by satellite tracking and stable isotopes". Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 438: 285-302, doi: 10.3354/meps09269 (pdf).

29. M. Vrac, L. Billard, E. Diday, A. Chédin (2011). "Copula Analysis of Mixture Models". Accepted in Computational Statistics (pdf soon).

28. M. Ghil, P. Yiou, S. Hallegatte, B. D. Malamud, P. Naveau, A. Soloviev, P. Friederichs, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Kondrashov, V. Kossobokov, O. Mestre, C. Nicolis, H. Rust, P. Shebalin, M. Vrac, A. Witt, and I. Zaliapin (2011). "Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction". Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 295-350, doi:10.5194/npg-18-295-2011 (download the paper)

27. P. Willems, M.Vrac (2011). 'Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change'. Journal of Hydrology, 402, 193-205, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.030 (pdf).

26. P. Oettli, B. Sultan, C. Baron, M. Vrac (2011). ' Are regional climate models relevant for crop yield prediction in West Africa?'. Environ. Res. Lett., 6 , doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014008 (download the paper).

25. M. Kallache, M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P.-A. Michelangeli (2011). 'Non-stationary probabilistic downscaling of extreme precipitation'. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, VOL. 116, D05113, doi:10.1029/2010JD014892 (pdf).



24. H. Rust, M. Vrac, M. Lengaigne, B. Sultan (2010). 'Quantifying differences in circulation patterns based on probabilistic models: IPCC-AR4 multi-model comparison for the North Atlantic'. Journal of Climate, 23, 6573-6589, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 (pdf). See also the associated "gaussDiff" R package.

23. P. Yiou, E. Bard, P. Dandin, B. Legras, P. Naveau, H. Rust, L. Terray, and M. Vrac (in alphabetical order after first author) (2010). 'Statistical issues about solar-climate relations'. Climate of the Past, 6, 565-573, doi:10.5194/cp-6-565-2010 (download the paper).

22. K. Goubanova, V. Echevin, B. Dewitte, F. Codron, K. Takahashi, P. Terray, M. Vrac (2010). 'Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model'. Climate Dynamics, 36 (7-8), 1365-1378, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0824-0 (pdf).

21. D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A. M. Ireson, R. E. Chandler, E. J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H. W. Rust, T. Sauter, M. Themeßl, V. K. C. Venema, K. P. Chun, C. M. Goodess, R. G. Jones, C. Onof, M. Vrac, I. Thiele-Eich (2010). 'Precipitation downscaling uder climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user'. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 48, No. 3, RG3003 (pdf).

20. C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, S. Lek, A.J. Wade (2010). 'Direct statistical downscaling of river flows'. Journal of Hydrology, Volume 385, Issues 1-4, pages 279-291, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.030 (pdf).

19. M. Vrac, P. Yiou (2010). 'Weather regimes designed for local precipitation modelling: Application to the Mediterranean basin'. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, 115, D12103, doi:10.1029/2009JD012871 (pdf). See also the associated "CCMtools" R package.



18. P.-A. Michelangeli, M. Vrac, H. Loukos. 'Probabilistic downscaling approaches: 'Application to wind cumulative distribution functions'. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038401, 2009 (pdf). See also the associated R package CDFt_1.2.tar.gz.

17. V. Jomelli, D. Brunstein, M. Déqué, M. Vrac, D. Grancher. 'Impacts of future climatic change (2000-2100) on the occurrence of debris flows: A case study in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps)'. Climatic Change,doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9616-0, 2009 (pdf soon)

16. G. Toulemonde, A. Guillou, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, F. Chevallier. 'Autoregressive models for maxima and their applications to CH4 and N2O', Environmetrics, 10.1002/env.992, in press, 2009 (preprint).

15. T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, P. Naveau. 'Statistical downscaling of near surface wind field over complex terrain in southern France', Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 103, doi: 10.1007/s00703-008-0330-7, 253-265, 2009 (pdf).



14. A. Bernacchia, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, P. Yiou. 'Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function. Part II: An application to El Nino', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15, 169-177, 2008 (pdf)



13. M. Vrac, P. Marbaix, D. Paillard, P. Naveau. 'Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe', Climate of the Past, 3, 669–682, 2007 (pdf)

12.M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P. Drobinski. 'Modeling pairwise dependencies in precipitation intensities', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 14, 789–797, 2007 (pdf)

11. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe, X.Z. Liang. 'A general method for validating statistical downscaling methods under future climate change', Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030295, 2007 (pdf)

10. M. Vrac and P. Naveau. 'Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: From dry events to heavy rainfalls', Water Resources Research, 43, W07402, doi:10.1029/2006WR005308, 2007 (pdf). See also the associated "NHMixt" R package (to compute statistical mixture between Gamma and GPD).

9. M. Vrac, K. Hayhoe, M. Stein. 'Identification and inter-model comparison of seasonal circulation patterns over North America'. International Journal of Climatology, 27 (5), p. 603-620, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1422, 2007 (pdf)

8. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe. 'Statistical downscaling of precipitation through nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing', Climate Research, 34: 169-184, doi: 10.3354/cr00696, 2007 (pdf)



Nothing this year...



7. M. Vrac, A. Chedin, E. Diday. 'Clustering a Global Field of Atmospheric Profiles by Mixture Decomposition of Copulas'. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Technology, Vol. 22, No. 10, pages 1445-1459, 2005 (pdf)

6. E. Diday, M. Vrac. 'Mixture decomposition of distributions by copulas in the symbolic data analysis framework', Discrete Applied Mathematics, 2005, 147, 27-41 (pdf)



5. P. Naveau, M. Vrac, M. G. Genton, A. Chédin and E. Diday. « Two statistical methods for improving the analysis of large climatic data sets : General skewed Kalman filters and distributions of distributions » Chapter in Vol. 13 of Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics: Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Kluwer Academic Publishers, under the direction of X. Sanchez_Vila, J. Carrera and J. Gomez-Hernandez, 2004 (pdf)

4. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chedin. 'Decomposition de melange de distributions et application a des donnees climatiques', Revue de Statistique Appliquee, 2004, LII (1), 67-96.






3. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. 'Mixture decomposition of copulas and application to climatology'. Chapter in 'Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty', Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002

2. M. Vrac, E. Diday, M. M. Liman, S. Winsberg. 'A top down binary tree method for symbolic class descriptions'. Chapter in 'Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty', Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002 (preprint)

1. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. 'Mélange de lois de lois par copules', Chapter in 'Extraction et Gestion de connaissances', Hermes Sciences, under the direction of P. Briand, 2002


Other Publications


General-public publications


My PhD. thesis

"Analyse et Modelisation de Donnees Probabilistes par Decomposition de Melange de Copules et Application a une Base de Donnees Climatologiques". ("Analysis and Modeling of Probabilistic Data by Mixture Decomposition of Copula Functions and Application to a Climate Database")
Advisors: A. Chedin (LMD/IPSL/CNRS) and E.Diday (U. Dauphine).
Defended on December 6, 2002, at the University Paris-Dauphine.
PhD manuscript here


My "Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches" (HDR - Sciences de l'Environnement, UVSQ)

"Modélisations statistiques à différentes échelles climatiques et environnementales"
Defended on March 30, 2012


R packages


Some links





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