Mathieu Vrac
Actual position
CNRS Research scientist at "Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement" (LSCE / IPSL / CNRS)
My main research interests are
- Statistical downscaling climate methods
- Regional/local precipitation modeling
- Modeling of local extreme events
- Local impacts of climate changes
- Nonhomogeneous Stochastic Weather Typing (NSWT) approaches
- Generalized Additive Models (GAM) -based methods
- Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) -based methods
- Statistical Climatology
- Analysis of climate functional and/or probabilistic data
- Thermodynamical dependencies modeled through Copula functions
- Spatial modeling of extreme climate events
- Stochastic Weather Generators
- Impacts of climate change (e.g., water resources, debris flows)
- Spatial/Temporal evolution(s) of large-scale weather regimes
- Statistical model-based clustering methods
- Optimal large-scal e weather regimes for local precipitation modeling
- Evaluation of large-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs)
- Projections of future seaonal features under climate change scenarios
- Vulnerable regions
- Mediterranean region
- Western (Sahelian) Africa
- Europe and South America
Academic jobs
- From October 2008: Permanent CNRS Research scientist at the 'Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement' (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS), France
- From September 2006 to September 2008: CNRS Research scientist (on contract) at the 'Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement' (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS), France
- From August 2004 to August 2006: Research Associate at the 'Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science' (CISES), The University of Chicago, USA
- July 2005: Invited visiting post-doc at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
- From September 2002 to August 2004 : Research and Teaching Assistant (Attache Temporaire a l'Enseignement et a la Recherche - ATER) in Applied Mathematics and Computer Science at the Universit Paris-Dauphine
Degrees
- December 2002 : Ph.D. thesis in Mathematics applied to climate science.
'Analyse et Modelisation de Donnees Probabilistes par Decomposition de Melange de Copules et Application a une Base de Donnees Climatologiques'.
Made in collaboration between the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) at the Ecole Polytechnique and the Centre de Recherche de Mathematiques de la Decision (CEREMADE) at the University Paris-Dauphine.
- 1999 : DEA (French equivalent of Master degree) in Applied Mathematics at the University Paris-Dauphine.
DEA report: 'Classification supervisee et non supervisee de donnees histogrammes a modalites nominales' ('Supervised and unsupervised clustering and classification of histogram data with nominal modalities') under the direction of E. Diday.
- 1998 : Maitrise (French equivalent of the 1st year of Master degree) in Applied Mathematics (engineering mathematics) at the University of Marne-la-Vallee).
Maitrise report : 'Modelisation probabiliste d'experiences dans l'industrie routiere' ('Probabilistic modeling of experiences in the road industry').
- 1997 : Licence (French equivalent of B.Sc.) in Mathematics at the University of Marne-la-Vallee.
- 1996 : DEUG (French degree) Sciences MIAS: Mathematics, Computer science, and Applications to Sciences, at the University of Marne-la-Vallee.
- 1994 : Baccalaureat C (French degree) in Mathematics and physical sciences at Lycee Gerard de Nerval (Noisiel, Seine et Marne)
Teaching
- 2009-2010: Course of "Statistical climatology" at the Ecole Centrale Marseille:
- Clustering methods and weather regimes
- Statistical downscaling and applications
- Extreme Values Theory and applications
- 2003-2004 : Teaching and Research Assistant ('Attache Temporaire a l'Enseignement et a la Recherche' - ATER) in Applied Mathematics at the University Paris-Dauphine :
- In charge of the scientific computation module (teaching and organization) for DEUG MASS 1
- In charge ('Charge de TD') of the 'Statistics exercises' for DEUG MASS 2, with Christian Robert.
- In charge of the lessons in amphitheater of 'Combinatory probabilities', and exercises (TD) in IUP1 Miage.
- In charge of the lessons in amphitheater of JAVA computing language in DEUG MASS 1.
- In charge of the exercises (TD) of a module "Scientific management and Decisional Mathematics" in Maitrise of Science and Management with Daniel Vanderpooten.
- 2002-2003 :
- In charge (TD/TP) of theoretical and practical exercises of algorithms in langage JAVA in DEUG MASS 1st year.
- In charge (TD/TP) of theoretical and practical exercises of JAVA in Licence IUP Genie Mathematiques et Informatique.
- 2000-2001 : In charge of various exercises of Mathematics and computer science at the University Paris-Dauphine.
- 1994-1999 : Teacher of mathematics at home.
Academic (co-)supervisions
PhD and Master students :
- P. Vaittinada Ayar (Master student, LSCE, May - September 2010)
- A. Merlo (Master student, LSCE, April - July 2010)
- G. Levavasseur (Master student and then PhD student, LSCE, february 2009 - present)
- C. Tisseuil (PhD student, Univ. of Toulouse, january 2007 - december 2009)
- 2002-2003: Director of two internships of DEA (Mathematics and computer science), two internships of Maitrise (Mathematics and computer science).
Post-docs :
- N. Vigaud (post-doc, BRGM, september 2009 - august 2010)
- T. Salameh (post-doc, LSCE, september 2008 - june 2010)
- H. Rust (post-doc, LSCE, june 2008 - november 2009)
- C. Lavaysse (post-doc, LMD, december 2008 - october 2009)
- K. Goubanova (post-doc, LOCEAN, february 2008 - december 2008)
Academic and associative activities
- Reviewer for the international journals 'Climate Dynamics', 'Climate of the Past', 'Climate Research', 'Computers and Geosciences', 'Data and Knowledge Engineering', 'Extremes', 'Journal of Geophysical Research', 'Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology', 'Journal of Climate', 'Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences', 'Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society', and 'Water Resources Research'
- Co-convener of the "Statistical downscaling" session of the international conference "Water 2010" (Quebec City, 5-7 July 2010)
- Work Package leader (WP1) of the REGYNA project (2008-2010)
- Participant in the PEPER project (2010-2013)
- Jury member ('examinateur') for the PhD thesis defended by J.-C. Espinoza on January, 13, 2009 (LOCEAN)
- Member of the comity thesis of Hamdi Mallat (LSCE)
- Reviewer for the Californian Climate Change assessment report 2008
- IPSL Consulting expert for Climpact
- Leader of the IPSL reading group about 'Statistical downscaling'
- President (2001-2004) and comedian (1994-2004) of the theater association 'Les Bramentombe', comedian (2003-2004) of the theater association 'Les Joupala"
- Member of the 'American Statistical Association' (ASA) and of the 'European Geophysical Union' (EGU)
Publications
24. H. Rust, M. Vrac, M. Lengaigne, B. Sultan. 'Quantifying differences in circulation patterns based on probabilistic models: IPCC-AR4 multi-model comparison for the North Atlantic'. Accepted by Journal of Climate, 2010.
23. P. Yiou, E. Bard, P. Dandin, B. Legras, P. Naveau, H. Rust, L. Terray, and M. Vrac (in alphabetical order after first author). 'Statistical issues about solar-climate relations'. Accepted by Climate of the Past, 2010.
22. K. Goubanova, V. Echevin, B. Dewitte, F. Codron, K. Takahashi, P. Terray, M. Vrac. 'Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model'. Accepted by Climate Dynamics, 2010 (pdf soon).
21. D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A. M. Ireson, R. E. Chandler, E. J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H. W. Rust, T. Sauter, M. Themeßl, V. K. C. Venema, K. P. Chun, C. M. Goodess, R. G. Jones, C. Onof, M. Vrac, I. Thiele-Eich. 'Precipitation downscaling uder climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user'. Accepted by Reviews of Geophysics, 2010 (pdf soon).
20. C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, S. Lek, A.J. Wade. 'Direct statistical downscaling of river flows'. Accepted by Journal of Hydrology, 2010 (pdf soon).
19. M. Vrac, P. Yiou. 'Weather regimes designed for local precipitation modelling: Application to the Mediterranean basin'. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, 115, D12103, doi:10.1029/2009JD012871, 2010 (pdf). See also the associated "CCMtools" R package.
18. P.-A. Michelangeli, M. Vrac, H. Loukos. 'Probabilistic downscaling approaches: 'Application to wind cumulative distribution functions'. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038401, 2009 (pdf). See also the associated R package CDFt_1.2.tar.gz.
17. V. Jomelli, D. Brunstein, M. Déqué, M. Vrac, D. Grancher. 'Impacts of future climatic change (2000-2100) on the occurrence of debris flows: A case study in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps)'. Climatic Change,doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9616-0, 2009 (pdf soon)
16. G. Toulemonde, A. Guillou, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, F. Chevallier. 'Autoregressive models for maxima and their applications to CH4 and N2O', Environmetrics, 10.1002/env.992, in press, 2009 (preprint).
15. T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, P. Naveau. 'Statistical downscaling of near surface wind field over complex terrain in southern France', Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 103, doi: 10.1007/s00703-008-0330-7, 253-265, 2009 (pdf).
14. A. Bernacchia, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, P. Yiou. 'Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function. Part II: An application to El Nino', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15, 169-177, 2008 (pdf)
13. M. Vrac, P. Marbaix, D. Paillard, P. Naveau. 'Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe', Climate of the Past, 3, 669–682, 2007 (pdf)
12.M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P. Drobinski. 'Modeling pairwise dependencies in precipitation intensities', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 14, 789–797, 2007 (pdf)
11. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe, X.Z. Liang. 'A general method for validating statistical downscaling methods under future climate change', Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030295, 2007 (pdf)
10. M. Vrac and P. Naveau. 'Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: From dry events to heavy rainfalls', Water Resources Research, 43, W07402, doi:10.1029/2006WR005308, 2007 (pdf). See also the associated "NHMixt" R package (to compute statistical mixture between Gamma and GPD).
9. M. Vrac, K. Hayhoe, M. Stein. 'Identification and inter-model comparison of seasonal circulation patterns over North America'. International Journal of Climatology, 27 (5), p. 603-620, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1422, 2007 (pdf)
8. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe. 'Statistical downscaling of precipitation through nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing', Climate Research, 34: 169-184, doi: 10.3354/cr00696, 2007 (pdf)
7. M. Vrac, A. Chedin, E. Diday. 'Clustering a Global Field of Atmospheric Profiles by Mixture Decomposition of Copulas'. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Technology, Vol. 22, No. 10, pages 1445-1459, 2005 (pdf)
6. E. Diday, M. Vrac. 'Mixture decomposition of distributions by copulas in the symbolic data analysis framework', Discrete Applied Mathematics, 2005, 147, 27-41 (pdf)
5. P. Naveau, M. Vrac, M. G. Genton, A. Chédin and E. Diday. « Two statistical methods for improving the analysis of large climatic data sets : General skewed Kalman filters and distributions of distributions » Chapter in Vol. 13 of Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics: Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Kluwer Academic Publishers, under the direction of X. Sanchez_Vila, J. Carrera and J. Gomez-Hernandez, 2004 (pdf)
4. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chedin. 'Decomposition de melange de distributions et application a des donnees climatiques', Revue de Statistique Appliquee, 2004, LII (1), 67-96.
3. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. 'Mixture decomposition of copulas and application to climatology'. Chapter in 'Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty', Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002
2. M. Vrac, E. Diday, M. M. Liman, S. Winsberg. 'A top down binary tree method for symbolic class descriptions'. Chapter in 'Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty', Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002 (preprint)
1. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. 'Mélange de lois de lois par copules', Chapter in 'Extraction et Gestion de connaissances', Hermes Sciences, under the direction of P. Briand, 2002
Articles submitted or in revision
- M. Kallache, M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P.-A. Michelangeli. 'Non-stationary probabilistic downscaling of extreme precipitation'. Submitted.
- N. Vigaud, M. Vrac, Y. Caballero. 'Probabilistic Downscaling of GCMs scenarios over southern India'. Submitted.
- A. Martin, D. Paillard, M. Vrac, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, M. Brulhet. 'Potential climate change over the next million years: Regional projections over Europe using an EMIC and a downscaling method'. Submitted.
- A. Martin, M. Vrac, D. Paillard, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama. 'Statistical-dynamical downscaling for an Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity, Part I: Methodology and calibrations'. Submitted.
- A. Martin, M. Vrac, D. Paillard, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama. 'Statistical-dynamical downscaling of Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity, Part II: Application to past and future climates'. Submitted.
- P. Willems, M.Vrac. 'Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change'. Submitted.
Articles in preparation
- C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, G. Grenouillet, M. Gevrey, A.J. Wade, S. Lek. 'A hydro-climatic-ecological model to project freshwater fish distribution from global climate models'.
- C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, A.J. Wade, G. Grenouillet, M. Gevrey, S. Lek. 'Spatial and temporal impact of climate change on freshwater fish biodiversity'
- J.-C. Espinoza, J.-C. Boulanger, M. Lengaigne, M. Vrac, H. Rust, J. Ronchail. 'Assessing the capacity of IPCC GCMs to reproduce weather types in tropical and subtropical South America: A neural networks approach'
- J. Carreau, M. Vrac 'Statistical downscaling of precipitation with neural network conditional mixture models'
My PhD. thesis
Mathieu Vrac. 'Analyse et Modelisation de Donnees Probabilistes par Decomposition de Melange de Copules et Application a une Base de Donnees Climatologiques'. ('Analysis and Modeling of Probabilistic Data by Mixture Decomposition of Copula Functions and Application to a Climate Database')
Advisors: A. Chedin (LMD/IPSL/CNRS) and E.Diday (U. Dauphine).
Defended on December 6, 2002, at the University Paris-Dauphine.
Some links
- Projects - Working groups - Research teams
- The ESTIM'R (Extremes - Statistics - Impacts - Regionalization) team (my team)
- Groupement d'Intérêt Scientifique (GIS) 'Climat - Environnement - Société'
- Extreme Events - Causes and Consequences (E2C2)
- ANR 'AssimilEx' (Assimilation of Extreme events)
- Statistiques pour l'Analyse, la Modélisation et l'Assimilation (SAMA)
- ANR MedUP (Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events : Uncertainties and Propagation on environment)
- Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability (Med-CliVar)
- African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA)
- Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase II (PMIP2)
- Some collaborators and/or friends
01.69.08.88.62
0169087716