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Extreme Events : Statistics, Impacts & Regionalization

The “Extremes-Statistics-Impacts-Regionalization” (ESTIMR) team has for main objectives the understanding and the modelling of the climate and environmental variability at various spatial scales – from very large structures related to the atmospheric dynamics, to very local phenomena – and at various temporal scales – for the study of past climates, present processes and future climate evolutions. In this very wide context, one of the strengths of ESTIMR is based on the use and the development of state-of-the-art statistical models adapted to climate problems, through a strong multidisciplinary interaction between climatology, modelling and statistics.

Research topics

In a non-exhaustive way, the main research axes of the ESTIMR team are (interdependent). [Click on the links for more information].

-Detection & Attribution of climate extreme events

-Downscaling & Bias correction of climate simulations

-Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems approach for climate.

-Science for climate Services.



These main axes offer a large variety of applications.

-Evaluations of global and regional climate models (i.e., GCMs and RCMs/SDMs).

-Regional projections of (past, present, future) large-scale climate simulations.

-Detection/attribution of climate change (e.g., on extremes).

-Impacts of climate changes on different systems/domains (e.g., hydrology, renewable energy, ecology, etc.).

-Reconstruction of past climates (last millennium, last glacial maximum, etc.).

Moreover, most of the statistical models and tools developed in the team are made freely available to the scientific community through R packages.

Therefore, the ESTIMR team can be seen as at the interface between fundamental climate researches and some societal issues (related to the impacts of climate changes) in developing statistical tools acting as bridges between the two, and available to the scientific community and the society.


Interactive calculations

-Weather regimes

-Daily North-Atlantic dynamical systems Forecast 



The permanent members of the team (in alphabetical order):

- Nathalie de Noblet (Researcher, see web site)

- Davide Faranda (Researcher, CNRS, see web site)

- Philippe Naveau (Researcher, CNRS, see web site)

- Robert Vautard (Researcher, CNRS, see web site)

- Mathieu Vrac (Researcher, Responsible of the team, CNRS, see web site)

- Soulivanh Thao (Research Engineer, CEA, see web site)

- Pascal Yiou (Researcher, CEA, see web site)


The non-permanent (PhDs and Postdocs) members of the group are listed here.

Extreme Events : Statistics, Impacts & Regionalization

(Source: Wendelien van Oldenborgh). Fog above Erasmus Bridge in Rotterdam (the Netherlands), in December 2008. The frequency of these events has decreased in the last 30 years in Europe.

#56 - Màj : 09/03/2018
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