Decide now or wait for the next forecast
Jeudi 02/12/2021, 11:00-12:00
Bât. 714, P. 1129, LSCE Orme des Merisiers
Weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts and climate projections can in principle help their users make good decisions, but using the information they provide in a optimal way is far from easy. Decisions that users may need to make include the question of whether to act now or wait for the next forecast, decide which of a series of lagged forecasts to use and more. I will present an extension of the cost-loss model applied to weather forecasts to help users "decide when they should decide", and will aslo explore a number of ways in which forecast change information can be presented, from changes in forecast values to changes in forecast skill. I conclude by suggesting that forecast providers might consider presenting forecast change information in order to help forecast users make better decisions.
about the speaker:
Gabriele Messori is Associate Professor of Meteorology at Uppsala University in Sweden. Prior to that he held temporary positions at Stockholm University and a permanent position at the UK Met Office. His research focuses on the dynamical drivers of extreme climate events in the mid and high latitudes, and on the use and interpretation of weather forecasts.