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Robert Vautard

Extrèmes : STatistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation



Senior scientist at National Centre for Scientific Research

Lead of L-IPSL excellence laboratory research program and climate services program at IPSL

Review editor of the Vth IPCC assessment

Research topics

Regional climate and energy modeling

How will european climate affect the weather and its variability in a few decades? How will this interact with energy transition need? This is one of the main question I want to address. This requires models that simulate the earth system, such as the IPSL global model, together with models downscaling both the climate and the impacts of its variability and changes at a much smaller scale. In particular I have been addressing the impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources. In order to fully understand this I have conducted projects and studies leading to a chain of models enabling investigation of the impacts of climate change on regional weather, renewable energy systems and also other factors affecting health such as pollens. 

Through the ongoing CLIM4ENERGY Copernicus C3S project, results of this research is provided as a demonstration of climate services.

Extreme events attribution

Another aspect of understanding climate change is through current climate. How does human-induced climate change affect the extreme events we are witnessing? We have developed methods to quantitatively investigate this questions. These methods involve mathematics, climate science and modeling. Throuogh several projects (EUCLEIA, EXTREMOSCOPE) our findings based on recnet cases show a general trend of heat wave and heavy precipitation events to have increased probabilities relative to a climate that "might have been without influence". The decription of such a pristine climate remains a challenge and an anchor to understanding future changes and adaptation to bring.

Scientific Publications

185. Hauser, M., L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, A. Jézéquel, K. Haustein, R. Vautard, G. J. van Oldenborgh and S. I. Seneviratne, 2017. Methods and model dependency of extreme event attribution : the 2015 European drought. Earth’s future, in press.

184. Raimonet, M., Oudin, L.; Thieu, V., Silvestre, M., Vautard, R., Rabouille, C., and P. Moigne, 2017: Evaluation of reanalysis datasets for hydrological modelling. J. Hydrometeorol., in press.

183. Colette, A., Andersson, A., Manders, A., Mar, K., Mircea, M., Pay, M.-T., Raffort, V., Tsyro, S., Cuvelier, C., Adani, M., Bessagnet, B., Bergström, R., Briganti G., Butler, T., Cappelletti, A., Couvidat, F., D'Isidoro, M., Doumbia, T., Fagerli, H., Granier, C., Heyes, C., Klimont, Z., Ojha, N., Otero, N., Schaap, M., Sindelarova, K., Stegehuis, A. I., Roustan, Y., Vautard, R., van Meijgaard, E., Vivanco, M.G., and P. Wind, P., 2017: EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010, Geoscientific Model Development 10, 3255-3276, 2017.

182. Vautard, R., A. Colette, E. van Meijgaard, F. Meleux, G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. Otto, I. Tobin, P. Yiou, 2017 : Attribution of wintertime anticyclonic stagnation contributing to air pollution in Western Europe. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., in press.

181. Peñuelas, J., Ciais, P., J. Canadell, I. Janssens, M. Fernandez-Martinez, J. Carnicer, M. Obersteiner, S. Piao, R. Vautard and J. Sardans, 2017: Shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period. Nature Ecology & Evolution, in press.

180. Fortems-Cheiney, A., G. Foret, G. Siour, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, G. Dufour, A. Colette, G. Lacressonniere and M. Beekmann, 2017 : A 3°C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory annihilates the benefits of European emission reductions on air quality. Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00075-9.

179. Jézéquel, A., Yiou, P., Radanovics, S., and R. Vautard, 2017 : Analysis of the exceptionally warm December 2015 in France using flow analogues. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in press.

178. Yiou, P., A. Jézéquel, P. Naveau, F. E. L. Otto, R. Vautard and M. Vrac, 2017: A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, in press.

177. Lacressonnière, G. L. Watson, . Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Andersson, M. Beekmann, A. Colette, G. Foret, B. Josse, V. Marécal, A. Nyiri, G. Siour, S. Sobolowski and R. Vautard (2017). Particulate matter air pollution in a +2°C warming world. Atmos. Environ., 154, 129-140.


176. Bartok, B., M. Wild, D. Folini, D. Lüthi, S. Kotlarski, C. Schär, R. Vautard and S. Jerez, 2016: Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2.

175. Knist, S., K. Goergen, E. Buonomo, O. Christensen, A. Colette, R. Cardoso, R. Fealy, J. Fernandez, M. Garcia-Diez, D. Jacob, S. Karstios, E. Katragkou, K. Keuler, S. Mayer, E. van Meijgaard, G. Nikulin, P. Soares, S. Sobolowski, G. Szepszo, C. Teichmann, R. Vautard, K. Warrach-Sagi, V. Wulfmeyer, C. Simmer, 2016: Land-atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEX evaluation experiments. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

174. Teuling, A. J., C. M. Taylor, J.-F. Meirink, L.-A. Melsen, D. G. Miralles, C. C. van Heervaarden, R. Vautard, A. I. Stegehuis, G.-J. Nabuurs, and J. Vilà Guerau de Arellano, 2016: Observational evidence for cloud cover enhancement over Western European forests. Nature Communications, in press.

173. Ouzeau, G., J.-M. Soubeyroux, M. Schneider, R. Vautard and S. Planton, 2016: Heat waves analysis over France in present and future climate : application of a new method on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. Climate Services, in press.

172. Vautard, R., P. Yiou, F. Otto, P. Stott, N. Christidis, G. J. van Oldenborgh and N. Schaller, 2016: Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events. Environ. Res. Letters, in press.

171. Watson, L., G. Lacressonnière, M. Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Andersson, B. Josse, V. Marécal, A. Nyiri, S. Sobolowski, G. Siour and R. Vautard, 2016: The impact of emissions and +2°C climate change upon future ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe. Atmos. Environ., in press.

170. Raynaud, D., B. Hingray, I. Zin, S. Anquetin, S. Debionne, and R. Vautard, 2016: Atmospheric analogs for physically consistent scenarios of surface weather in Europe and Maghreb. Int. J. of Climatology, in press.

169. Lake, I. R., N. R. Jones, M. Agnew, C. M. Goodess, F. Giorgi, L. Hamaoui-Laguel, M. Semenov, F. Solmon, J. Storkey, R. Vautard and M. Epstein, 2016: Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ. Health. Persp., in press.

168. Liu, L., F. Solmon, R. Vautard, L. Hamaoui-Laguel, Cs. Zs. Torma, and F. Giorgi, 2016: Estimates of common ragweed pollen emission and dispersion over Europe using RegCM-pollen model. Biogeoscience, in press.

167. Vrac, M., Noël, T. and R. Vautard, 2015: Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because occurrences matter, J. Geophys. Res., in press.

166. Chavaillaz, Y., S. Joussaume, A. Dehecq, P. Braconnot and R. Vautard, 2016 : Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century, Climatic Change, in press.

165. Zhao Y., B. Sultan, R. Vautard, P. Braconnot, H.J. Wang and A. Ducharne, 2015: Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socio-economic changes in China. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., in press.

164. Schaller, N., A. L. Kay, R. Lamb, N. R. Massey, G.-J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, S. N. Sparrow, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, A. Bowery, S. M. Crooks, C. Huntingford, W. Ingram, R. Jones, T. Legg, J. Miller, J. Skeggs, D. Wallom, S. Wilson & M. R. Allen, 2015, Human influence on climate in the 2014 Southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2927.

163. Tobin, I., Jerez, S., Vautard, R., Thais, F., Déqué, M., Kotlarski, S., Fox Maule, C., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Noel, T., Prein, A., Teichmann, C., 2015: Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario. Environ. Res. Lett., in press.

162. Markakis, K., M. Valari, M. Engardt, G. Lacressonniere, R. Vautard and C. Andersson, 2015: Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions. Case studies for Paris and Stockholm. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, in press.

161. Lacressonnière G, Foret G, Beekmann M, Siour G, Engardt M., Gauss M, Watson L, Andersson C ,Colette A, Josse B, Marécal V, Nyiri A., Vautard R., Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties, Climatic change, in press

160. Stott, P., N. Christidis, F. Otto, Y. Sun, J.-P. Vanderlinden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. Vautard, H. von Storch, P. Walton; P. Yiou, F. Zwiers, 2016, Attribution of extreme events. WIRES Climate Change, 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380.

159. Balog, I., P. M. Ruti, I. Tobin, V. Armenio, and R. Vautard, 2016: A numerical approach for planning offshore wind farms from regional to local scales over the Mediterranean. Renewable Energy, 85, 395-405.




158. Jerez, S., I. Tobin, R. Vautard, J. P. Montávez, J. M. López-Romero, F. Thais, B. Bartok, O. B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, S. Kotlarski, E. van Meijgaard, C. Teichmann, and M. Wild, 2015: The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms10014.

157. Casanueva, A., S. Kotlarski, S. Herrera, J. Fernandez, J. M. Guttierez, F. Boberg, A. Colette, O. B. Christensen, K. Goergen, D. Jacob, K. Keuler, G. Nikulin, C. Teichmann, and R. Vautard, 2015: daily precipitation statistics in the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: Added value of a high resolution and implications for bias correction. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.​1007/​s00382-015-2865-x).

156. Watson, L., G. Lacressonnière, M. Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Anderson, B. Josse, V. Marecal, A. Nyiri, S. Sobolowski, G. Siour, and R. Vautard, 2015, The impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe. Atmospheric Environment, 119, 240-257.

155. Zeng, Z., A. Chen, P. Ciais, Y.Li, L. Z. X. Li, R. Vautard, L. Zhou, H. Yang, M. Huang & S. Piao, 2014: Regional air pollution brightening reverses the greenhouse gases induced warming-elevation relationship. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10. 1002/2015GL064410.

154. Stegehuis, A., R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A.J. Teuling, D.G. Miralles, and M. Wild, 2014: An observation-constrained multi-physics RCM ensemble for simulating European mega-heatwaves. Geosc. Model Dev., doi:10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015.

153. Vautard, R., G.-J. van Oldenborgh, S. Thao, B. Dubuisson, G. Lenderink, A. Ribes, S. Planton, J.-M. Soubeyroux, P. Yiou (2015): Extreme fall precipitations in the Cévennes mountains. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. Suppl. On “explaining extreme events of 2014 from a climate perspective”, 96, S56-S60.

152. Zhao Y., A. Ducharne, B. Sultan, P. Braconnot, and R. Vautard, 2015: Modeling climate change impacts on human heat stress: present-day biases and future uncertainties in CMIP5. Environ. res. Lett., 10, 084013.

151. Miller, L. M., N. A. Brunsell, D. B. Mechem, F. Gans, A. J. Monaghan, R. Vautard, D. W. Keith, and A. Kleidon, 2014: Two methods for estimating limits to large-scale wind power generation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 11169-11174.

150. Berrisford, P., I. Tobin, R. J. H. Dunn, R. Vautard and T. R. McVicar, Eds., 2015: Land surface Wind speed. Regional climates [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (7), S169–S219.

149. Kinney, P., Schwartz, J., Pascal, M., Petkova, E. Le Tertre, A. Medina, S. and Vautard, R., Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?, 2015 Environ. Res. Lett., 10, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064016.

148. Hamaoui-Laguel, L., R. Vautard, L. Liu, F. Solmon, N. Viovy, D. Khvorostyianov, F. Essl, I. Chuine, A. Colette, M. A. Semenov, A. Schaffhauser, J. Storkey, M. Thibaudon and M. Epstein, 2015: Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe. Nature Climate Change, 5, 766-U186.

147. Prein, A., A. Gobiet, H. Truehetz, K. Keuler, K. Goergen, C. Teichmann, C. Fox Maule, E. van Meijgaard, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, R. Vautard, A. Colette, E. Kjellström, 2014: Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits? Climate Dynamics, in press.

146. Katragkou, E., M. Garcia-Diez, R. Vautard, S. Sobolowski, P. Zanis, G. Alexandri, R.M. Cardoso, A. Colette, J. Fernandez, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, T. Karacostas, S. Knist, S. Mayer, P.M.M. Soares, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, A. Tsikerdekis, and D. Jacob, 2014: Hindcast regional climate simulations within EURO-CORDEX: Evaluation of a WRF multi-physics ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development., 8, 603-618.

145. Essl, F., K. Biro, D. Brandes, O. Broennimann, J. M. Bullock, D. S. Chapman, B. Chauvel, S. Dullinger, B. Fumanal, A. Guisan, G. Karrer, G. Kazinczi, C. Kueffer, B. Laitung, C. Lavoie, M. Leitner, T. Mang, D. Moser, H. Müller-Schärer, B. Petitpierre, R. Richter, U. Schaffner, M. Smith, U. Starfinger, R. Vautard, G. Vogl, M. von der Lippe & S. Follak, 2014:Biological flora of the British Isles: Ambrosia artemisiifolia, J. Ecology, in press.

144. Schucht, S., A. Colette, S. Rao, M. Holland, W. Schöpp, P. Kolp, Z. Klimont, B. Bessagnet, S. Szopa, R. Vautard, J.-M. Brignon, and L. Rouil, 2014: Moving towards ambitious climate policies: monetized health benefits from improved air quality could improve offset mitigation costs. Envion. Sci. and Policy, 50, 252-269.

143. Garcia-Diez, M., J. Fernandez and R. Vautard, 2015 : An RCM multi-physics ensemble over Europe : Multi-variable evaluation to avoid error compensation. Clim. Dyn, 1-16.

142. van Oldenborgh, G.-J., D. B. Stephenson, A. Sterl, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, S. S. Drijfhout, H. von Storch and H. van den Dool, 2015: comment on ‘Potential influences on the United Kingdom floods of Winter 2013/2014 by Huntingford et al’, Nature Climate Change, 5, 490-491.

141. Jerez, S., Thais, F., Tobin, I., Wild, M., Colette, A., Yiou, P., and R. Vautard, 2015: The CLIMIX model: a tool to create and evaluate spatially-resolved scenarios of photovoltaic and wind power development. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 42, 1-15.

140. Tobin, I., R. Vautard, I. Balog, F.-M. Bréon, S. Jerez, P. Ruti, F. Thais, M. Vrac, and P. Yiou, 2015: Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Climatic Change, 128, 99-112.




139. Lee, M., F. Nordio, A. Zanobetti, P. Kinney, R. Vautard and J. Schwartz, 2013: Acclimatization across space and time in the effects of temperature on mortality. Environ. health, in press.

138. Markakis, K., M. Valari, A. Colette, O. Sanchez, O. Perrussel, C. Honore, R. Vautard, Z. Klimont, and S.T. Rao, 2014 : Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale. Atmos. Chem.and Phys., 14, 7323-7340.


137. Tobin, I., P. Berrisford, R. J. H. Dunn, R. Vautard and T. R. McVicar, 2014: State of Climate in 2013 - Surface Winds, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., special suppl., 95.

136. Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297-1333, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.

135. Lacressonnière, G., V.-H. Peuch, R. Vautard, J. Arteta, M. Déqué, M. Joly, B. Josse, V. Marécal, and D. Saint-Martin, 2014, European air quality in the 2030s and 2050s: impacts of global and regional emission trends and of climate change. Atmospheric Environment, in press.

134. Yiou, P., M. boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut, 2014 : Ensemble Meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781-1785. Clim. Past., 10, 797-809.

133. Vautard, R.,  A. Gobiet, S. Sobolowski, E. Kjellström, A. Stegehuis, P. Watkiss, T. Mendlik, O. Landgren, G. Nikulin, C. Teichmann, D. Jacob, 2013, The European climate under a 2°C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., in press.

132. Vautard R., F. Thais, I. Tobin, F.-M. Bréon, J.-G. Devezeaux de Lavergne, A. Colette, P. Yiou, and P. M. Ruti, 2014 : Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms, Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms4196.

131. Ortega, P., D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, B. Vinther, P. Yiou, R. Vautard and K. Yioshimura, 2013: Characterizing atmospheric circulation signals in Greenland ice cores: insights from the weather regime approach. Climate Dynamics, in press.

130. Jacob, D., J. Petersen, B. Eggert, A. Alias, O. B. Christensen, L. M. Bouwer, A. Braun, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Georgievski, E. Georgopoulou, A. Gobiet, G. Nikulin, A. Haensler, N. Hempelmann, C. Jones, K. Keuler, S. Kovats, N. Kröner, S. Kotlarski, A. Kriegsmann, E. Martin, E. van Meijgaard, C. Moseley, S. Pfeifer, S. Preuschmann, K. Radtke, D. Rechid, M. Rounsevell, P. Samuelsson, S. Somot, J.-F. Soussana, C. Teichmann, R. Valentini, R. Vautard, and B. Weber, 2014, EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Regional Environmental change, 14, 563-578.




129. Colette, A., B. Bessagnet, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, S. Rao, L. Menut, G. Clain, F. Meleux, S. Schucht, Z. Klimont, and L. Rouïl, 2013 : European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios. Atmos. Chem. and Phys., 13, 7451-7471.

128. Menut L., Bessagnet B., Khvorostyanov D., Beekmann M., Blond N., Colette A., Coll I., Curci G., Foret G., Hodzic A., Mailler S., Meleux F., Monge J.L., Pison I., Siour G., Turquety S., Valari M., Vautard R., Vivanco M.G., 2013 : CHIMERE 2013: a model for regional atmospheric composition modelling. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 981-1028.

127. Mc Vicar, T., R., R. Vautard, J.-N. Thepaut, P. Berrisford, and R. J. H. Dunn, 2013, [Global climate; Atmospheric circulation; Surface winds] Land surface winds [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 94, S1–S258.

126. Solazzo, E., R. Bianconi, G. Pirovano, M. D. Moran, R. Vautard, C. Hogrefe, Appel, K. W., V. Matthias, P. Grossi, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, C. Chemel, J. H. Christensen, R. Forkel, X. Francis, A. Hansen, S. McKeen, U. Nopmoncol, M. Prank, K. Sartelet, A. Segers, J. D. Silver, G. Yarwood, J. Werhahn, J. Zhang, S. T. Rao, and S. Galmarini, 2013: Evaluating the capability of regional air quality models to capture the vertical distribution of pollutants. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 791-818.

125. Stegehuis, A., R. Teuling, P. Ciais, R. Vautard and M. Jung, 2013: Future European temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations. Geophys. Res. Letters, in press.

124. Vautard, R., A. Gobiet, D. Jacob, M. Belda, A. Colette, M. Déqué, J. Fernández, M. García-Díez, K. Goergen, I. Güttler, T. Halenka, T. Karakostas, E. Katragkou, K. Keuler, S. Kotlarski, S. Mayer, E. van Meijgaard, G. Nikulin, M. Patarčić, J. Scinocca, S. Sobolowski, M. Suklitsch, C. Teichmann, K. Warrach-Sagi, V. Wulfmeyer, P. Yiou, 2012 : The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of 1 regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2555-2575.

123. Stegehuis, A., R. Vautard, P. Ciais, R Teuling, M. Jung, and P. Yiou, 2013: Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations. Climate Dynamics, 41, 455-477.

122. Yiou, P., T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, L. Menut, R. Vautard, and M. Vrac, 2013 : Ensemble reconstruction of the atmospheric column from surface pressure using analogues. Clim. Dyn., 41, 1419-1437.

121. Vautard, R., T. Noël, L. Li, M. Vrac, E. Martin, P. Dandin, and S. Joussaume, 2013 : Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over metropolitan France. Clim. Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1621-8.

120. Menut, L., O. P. Tripathi, A. Colette, R. Vautard, E. Flaounas, B. Bessagnet, 2012 : Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modeling purposes. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2515-2533.




119. Cattiaux, J., B. Quesada, A. Arakelian, F. Codron, R. Vautard and P. Yiou, 2012 : North-Atlantic dynamics and european temperature extremes in the IPSL model: sensitivity to atmospheric resolution. Clim. Dyn., in press.

118. Colette, A., R. Vautard and M. Vrac, 2012 : Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L13707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052258.

117. Vautard, R., T. R. McVicar, J.-N. Thépaut, M. L. Roderick. (2012) [Global climate; Atmospheric circulation; Surface winds] Land surface winds and atmospheric evaporative demand [in “State of the Climate in 2011”]. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society. 93(7), S36-S38.

116. Schere, K., Vautard, R., Solazzo, E., Hogrefe, C. and S. Galmarini, 2012: Lessons learned from Phase I of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). Environmental Manager, July 2012, 37-47.

115. Quesada, B., R. Vautard, P. Yiou, M. Hirschi and S. I. Seneviratne, 2011: Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry winters and springs. Nature Climate Change, 2, 736-741.

114. Kinney, P. L., M. Pascal, R. Vautard, and K. Laaidi, 2012: Winter mortality in a changing climate: will it go down? Bull. Epidem. Hebdo., 12-13, 5-7.

113. Solazzo, E., R. Bianconi,G. Pirovano, M. Volker, R. Vautard, K. W. Appel, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, J. H. Christensen, C. Chemel, I. Coll, J. Ferreira, R. Forkel, X. V. Francis, G. Grell, P. Grossi, A. Hansen,  A. I. Miranda, M. D. Moran, U. Nopmongcol, M. Parnk, K. N. Sartelet, M. Schaap, J. D. Silver, R. S. Sokhi, J. Vira, J. Werhahn, R. Wolke, G. Yarwood, J. Zhang, S.T. Rao, and S. Galmarini, 2011: Operational model evaluation for particulate matter in Europe and North America in the context of the AQMEII project. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.02.045.

112. Solazzo, E.,R. Bianconi, R. Vautard, K. W. Appel, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, J. H. Christensen, C. Chemel, I. Coll, H. D. van der Gon, J. Ferreira, R. Forkel, X. V. Francis, G. Grell, P. Grossi, A. Hansen, A. Jeričević, L. Kraljević, A. I. Miranda, M. D. Moran, U. Nopmongcol, G. Pirovano, M. Prank, A. Riccio,  K. N. Sartelet, M. Schaap, J. D. Silver, R. S. Sokhi, J. Vira, J. Werhahn, R. Wolke, G. Yarwood, J. Zhang, S.T. Rao9, and S. Galmarini, 2012: Model evaluation and ensemble modeling for surface-level ozone in Europe and North America. Atmos. Environ., doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.01.003.

111. Vautard, R., Moran, M. D., Solazzo, E., Gilliam, R. C., Matthias, V., Bianconi, R., Chemel, C., Ferreira, J., Geyer, B., Hansen, A. B., Jericevic, A., Prank, M., Segers, A., Silver, J. D., Werhahn, J., Wolke, R., Rao, S. T., and S. Galmarini, 2012, Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used for the Air Quality Model Evaluation InternationaI Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations. Atmos. Environ., doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.10.065.

110. Schere, K., J. Flemming, R. Vautard, C. Chemel, A. Colette, C. Hogrefe, B. Bessagnet, F. Meleux, R. Mathur, S. Roselle, R.-M. Hu, R. S. Sokhi, S. T. Rao and S. Galmarini, 2011: Trace gas/aerosol boundary concentrations and their impacts on continental-scale AQMEII modeling domains. Atmosheric Environment, 53, 38-50.

109. Alapathy, K., Mathur, R., Pleim, J., Rao, S. T., Ramaswamy, V., Galmarini, S., Schaap, M., Vautard, R., Makar, P., Baklanov, A., Kallos, G. and B. Vogel, New directions: understanding interactions of air quality and climate change at regional scale. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.12.016, 2012, 419–421.




108. Cattiaux, J., Yiou, P. and R. Vautard, 2011: Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe. Climate Dynamics, in press.

107. Peterson, T. C., Vautard, R., McVicar T. R., Thépaut, J.-N., and P. Berrisford, 2011: Surface winds over land, in [“State of Climate 2010”], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, in press.

106. Lemond, J., Dandin, P., Planton, S., Vautard, R., Pagé, C., Déqué, M., Franchistéguy, L., Geindre, S., Kerdoncuff, M., Li, L., Moisselin, J. M., Noël, T., and Y. M. Tourre, 2011. DRIAS – A step toward french climate services. Adv. in Sci. and Res., 6, 179-186.

105. Cattiaux, J., R. Vautard, and P. Yiou, 2011: North-Atlantic SST amplified recent European land temperature extremes and trends. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0869-0.



104. Vautard, R., J. Cattiaux, P. Yiou, J.-N Thepaut, and P. Ciais, 2010: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness. Nature Geoscience, 3, 756–761.

103. Cattiaux, J., R. Vautard,, C. Cassou, P. Yiou, V. Masson-Delmotte and F. Codron, 2010 : Winter 2010 in Europe : a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, doi:10.1029/2010GL044613.

102. Beekmann, M., and R. Vautard, 2010: A modelling study of photochemical regimes over Europe: robustness and variability. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Disc., 10, 10067-10084.

101. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Yiou, P., and R. Vautard, 2010: On the role of circulations and aerosols in the decline of mist and dense fog in Europe over the last 30 years. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 4597-4609.

  1. Aulagnier, C., Rayner, P., Ciais, P., Vautard, R., Rivier, L., Ramonet, M., 2010, Is the recent build-up of the atmospheric CO2 over Europe reproduced by models: an overview with the atmospheric mesoscale transport model CHIMERE, Tellus B, DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00443.


  1. Vautard, R. and P. Yiou, 2009, Control of recent European surface climate change by atmospheric flow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22702, 10.1029/2009GL040480.
  1. Timmermans, R. M. A., Segers, A. J., Builtjes, P. H. J., Vautard, R., Siddans, R., Elbern, H., Tjemkes, S. A. T., and M. Schaap, 2009, The added value of a proposed satellite imager for ground-level particulate matter analyses and forecasts. IEEE J-STAR, 2, 271-283.
  1. Timmermans, R. M. A., Schaap, M., Elbern, H., Siddans, R., Tjemkes, S., Vautard, R., and P. Builtjes, 2009: An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) for aerosol optical depth from satellites. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol,26, 2673-2682.
  1. Georgopoulos, P., Isukapali, S., Burke, J., Napelenok, S., Palma, T., Langstaff, J., Majeed, M., He, S., Byun, D., Cohen, M., Vautard, R., 2009, Air quality modeling needs for exposure assessment from the source-to-outcome perspective, Environmental Manager, in press.
  1. Monks, P. S.,  C. Granier, S. Fuzzi, A. Stohl, M. Williams, H. Akimoto, M. Amman, A.Baklanov, U. Baltensperger, I. Bey, N. Blake, R.S. Blake, K. Carslaw, O.R. Cooper, F. Dentener, E. Fragkou, G. Frost, S. Generoso, P. Ginoux, V. Grewe, A. Guenther, H.C., Hansson, S. Henne, J. Hjorth, A. Hofzumahaus, H. Huntrieser, M.E. Jenkin, J. Kaiser, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, M. Kulmala, M.G. Lawrence, J.D. Lee, C. Liousse, G. McFiggans, A. Metzger, A. Mieville, N. Moussiopoulos, J.J. Orlando, P.I. Palmer, D. Parrish, A. Petzold, U. Platt, U. Poeschl, A.S.H. Prévôt, C.E. Reeves, S. Reiman, Y. Rudich, K. Sellegri, R. Steinbrecher, D. Simpson, H. ten Brink, J. Theloke, G. van der Werf, R. Vautard, V. Vestreng, Ch. Vlachokostas, R. vonGlasow, 2009, Atmospheric composition change – global and regional air quality, Atmospheric Environment, 43, 5268-5350.
  1. Coll, I., Lasry, F., Fayet, S., Armengaud, A., and R. Vautard, 2009, Simulation and evaluation of 2010 emission control scenarios in a Mediterranean area. Atmos. Environ., 43, 4194-4204.
  1. Champollion, C., P. Drobinski, M. Haeffelin, O. Bock, J. Tarniewicz, M. N. Bouin and R. Vautard, 2009, Water vapor variability induced by urban/rural surface heterogeneities during convective conditions, Quart. J. of the Royal Met. Soc., 135, 1266-1276.
  1. Zampieri, M., F. D’Andrea, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, P. Yiou, 2009, Hot European Summers and the role of soil moisture in the propagation of Mediterranean drought, J. Climate, 4747-4758.
  1. Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R. and Yiou, P., Origins of the extremely warm European fall of 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2009GL037339.
  1. Vautard, R., Yiou, P., and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2009: Decline of fog, mist and haze in Europe over the past 30 years, Nature Geoscience, 2, 115-119.
  1. Curci, G., Beekmann, M., Vautard, R., Smiatek, G., Steinbrecher, R., Theloke, J., and R. Friedrich, 2008: Modeling study of the impact of isoprene and terpene emissions on European ozone levels. Atmos. Environ., 43, 1444-1455.
  1. Steinbrecher, R., Smiatek, G., Köble, R., Seufert, G., Theloke, J., Hauff, K., Ciciolli, P., Vautard, R., 2009: Intra- and inter-annual variability of VOC emissions from natural and semi-natural vegetation in Europe and neighbouring countries. Atmos. Environ., 43, 1380-1391.
  1. Vautard, R., M. Schaap, R Bergström, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, P.J.H. Builtjes, J.H. Christensen, C. Cuvelier, V. Foltescu, A. Graf, A. Kerschbaumer, M. Krol, P. Roberts, L. Rouïl, R. Stern, L. Tarrason, P. Thunis, E. Vignati, P. Wind, 2009, Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble. Atmos. Environ., 43, 4822-4832.
  1. Vivanco, M., Palomino, I., Vautard, R., Bessagnet, B., Martin, F., Menut, L., Jimenez, S., 2009: Multi-year assessment of photochemical air quality simulation over Spain, Environmental Modeling and Software, 24, 63-73.
  1. Rouïl, L., Honoré, C., Vautard, R., Beekmann, M., Bessagnet B., Dufour A., Elichegaray C., Flaud, J.-M., Malherbe L., Meleux F., Menut L., Martin D., Peuch A., Peuch V.-H., and Poisson, N., 2009, PREV'AIR: an operational forecasting and mapping system for air quality in Europe. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 73-83.



  1. Patra, P. K., R. M. Law, W. Peters, C. RÓ§denbeck, M. Takigawa1, C. Aulagnier, I. Baker, D. J. Bergmann, P. Bousquet, J. Brandt, L. Bruhwiler, P. J. Cameron-Smith, J. H. Christensen, F. Delage, A. S. Denning, S. Fan, C. Geels, S. Houweling, R. Imasu, U. Karstens, S. R. Kawa, J. Kleist, M. C. Krol1, S.-J. Lin, R. Lokupitiya, T. Maki1, S. Maksyutov, Y. Niwa, R. Onishi, N. Parazoo, G. Pieterse, L. Rivier, M. Satoh, S. Serrar, S. Taguchi, R. Vautard, A. T. Vermeulen, Z. Zhu:  TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: analysis of synoptic scale variations for the period 2002-2003. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB4013, doi:10.1029/2007GB003081.
  1. Bessagnet, B., Menut, L., Aymoz, G., Chepfer, H., and Vautard, R., 2008: Modelling dust emissions and transport within Europe: the Ukraine March 2007 event. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15202, doi:10.1029/2007JD009541.
  1. Law, R. M., W. Peters, C. RÓ§denbeck, C. Aulagnier, I. Baker, D. J. Bergmann, P. Bousquet, J. Brandt, L. Bruhwiler, P. J. Cameron-Smith, J. H. Christensen, F. Delage, A. S. Denning, S. Fan, C. Geels, S. Houweling, R. Imasu, U. Karstens, S. R. Kawa, J. Kleist, M. C. Krol1, S.-J. Lin, R. Lokupitiya, T. Maki1, S. Maksyutov, Y. Niwa, R. Onishi, N. Parazoo, G. Pieterse, L. Rivier, M. Satoh, S. Serrar, S. Taguchi, M. Takigawa1, R. Vautard, A. T. Vermeulen, Z. Zhu, 2008: TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: experimental overview and diurnal cycle results for 2002. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB3009, doi:10.1029/2007GB003050.
  1. Stern, R., P. Builtjes, M. Schaap, R. Timmermans, R. Vautard, A. Hodzic, M. Memmesheimer, H. Feldmann, E. Renner, R. Wolke, and A. Kerschbaumer, 2008 : A model inter-comparison study focusing on episodes with elevated PM10 concentrations. Atmos. Environ, 42, 4567-4588.
  1. Honoré, C., Rouil, L., Vautard, R., Beekmann, M., Bessagnet, B., Dufour, A., Elichegaray, C., Flaud, J.-M., Malherbe, L., Meleux, F., Menut, L., Martin, D., Peuch, A., Peuch, V.-H., Poisson, N., 2008. Predictability of European air quality: The assessment of three years of operational forecasts and analyses. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04301, doi:10.1029/2007JD008761.




  1. Salameh, T., Drobinski, P., Menut, L., Bessagnet, B., Flamant, C., Hodzic, A., and R. Vautard, 2006: Aerosol distribution over the western Mediterranean basin during a Tramontane/Mistral event, Annales Geophysicae, 25, 2271-2291.
  1. Yiou, P., R. Vautard, P. Naveau and C. Cassou, 2007.  Inconsistency between atmospheric dynamics and temperatures during the exceptional 2006/2007 fall/winter and recent warming in Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L21808, doi:10.1029/2007GL031981.
  1. Vautard, R., Ciais, P., Fisher, R., Lowry D., Bréon, F.-M., Vogel, F., Levin, I., Miglietta F. and E. Nisbet, 2007. The dispersion of the Buncefield oil fire plume, an extreme accident without air quality consequences, Atmospheric Environment, 41, 9506-9517.
  1. Vautard, R., and D. Hauglustaine, 2007: Impact of global climate change on regional air quality: introduction to the thematic issue, CR Geoscience, 339, 703-708.
  1. Vautard, R., M. Beekmann, J. Desplats, A. Hodzic, S. Morel, 2007. Air quality in Europe during the summer of 2003: a prototype of air quality in a warmer climate.  CR Geoscience, 339, 747-763.
  1. Monteiro, A., Miranda, A. I., Borrego, C., Vautard, R., Ferreira, J., and Perez, A. T., 2007: Long-term assessment of particulate matter for Portugal, Atmospheric Environment, 41, 7726-7736.
  1. Vautard, R., Maidi, M., Menut, L., Beekmann, M., and A. Colette, 2007. Boundary layer photochemistry simulated with a two-stream convection scheme. Atmospheric Environment, 47, 8275-8287.
  1. Pirovano, G., Coll, I., Bedogni, M., Alessandrini, S., Costa, M. P., Gabusi, V., Lasry, F., Menut, L., Vautard, R., 2007: On the influence of meteorological input on photochemical modelling of a severe episode over a coastal area, Atmospheric Environment, 47, 6445-6464.
  1. Vautard, R., Yiou, P., D’Andrea, F., de Noblet, N., Viovy, N., Cassou, C., Polcher, J., Ciais, P., Kageyama, M., and Y. Fan, 2007: Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L07711, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028001.
  1. Blond, N., K. F. Boersma, H. J. Eskes, R. van der A, M. van Roosendael, I. De Smedt, G. Bergametti, R. Vautard, 2007: Intercomparison of SCIAMACHY nitrogen dioxide observations, in-situ measurements and air-quality modeling results over Europe. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10311, 10.1029/2006JD007277.
  1. Chepfer, H., Chiriaco, M., Vautard, R., Spinhirne, J., 2007: Evaluation of MM5 optically thin clouds over Europe using ICE/SAT lidar space-borne observations. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2737-2753.
  1. Drobinski, P., F. Saïd, G. Ancellet, J. Arteta, P. Augustin, S. Bastin, A. Brut, J.L. Caccia, B. Campistron, S. Cautenet, A. Colette, B. Cros, U. Corsmeier, I. Coll, A. Dabas, H. Delbarre, A. Dufour, P. Durand, V. Guénard, M. Hasel, N. Kalthoff, C. Kottmeier, A. Lemonsu, F. Lohou, V. Masson, L. Menut, C. Moppert, V.H. Peuch, V. Puygrenier, O. Reitebuch, R. Vautard, 2007: Regional transport and dilution during high pollution episodes in southeastern France: summary of findings from the ESCOMPTE experiment. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D13105, doi:10.1029/2006JD007494.
  1. Lasry, F., I. Coll, S. Fayet, M. Havre and R. Vautard, 2007. Short-term measures for the control of ozone peaks: expertise from CTM simulations. J. Atmos. Chem., doi:10.1007/s10874-007-9062-1.
  1. Van Loon, M., R. Vautard, M. Schaap, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, P.J.H. Builtjes, J. H. Christensen, K. Cuvelier, A. Graf, J.E. Jonson, M. Krol, J. Langner, P. Roberts, L. Rouil, R. Stern, L. Tarrasón, P. Thunis, E. Vignati, L. White, P. Wind, 2007: Evaluation of long-term ozone simulations from seven regional air quality models and their ensemble average. Atmos. Environ.,, 41, 2083-2097.
  1. Borrego, C., Monteiro, A., Miranda, A.I. and Vautard, R., 2007. Air quality assessment for Portugal. Science of the Total Environment, 373, 22-31.
  1. Vautard, R., Builtjes, P. H. J., Thunis, P., Cuvelier, K., Bedogni, M., Bessagnet, B., Honoré, C., Moussiopoulos, N., Pirovano G.,  Schaap, M., Stern, R., Tarrason, L., Van Loon, M., 2007: Evaluation and intercomparison of Ozone and PM10 simulations by several chemistry-transport models over 4 european cities within the City-Delta project, Atmospheric Environment, 41, 173-188.
  1. Cuvelier, C., Thunis, P., Vautard, R., Amann, M., Bessagnet, B., Bedogni, M., Berkowicz, R., Brandt, J., Brocheton, F., Builtjes, P., Coppalle, A., Denby, B., Douros G., Graf, A., Hellmuth, O., Honoré, C., Hodzic, A., Jonson, J., Kerschbaumer, A., de Leeuw, F., Minguzzi, E., Moussiopoulos, N., Pertot, C., Pirovano, G., Rouil, L., Schaap, M., Stern, R., Tarrason, L., Vignati, E., Volta, M., White, L., Wind, P., Zuber, A., 2007: CityDelta: A model intercomparison to explore the impact of emission reductions in 2010 in European cities in 2010, Atmospheric Environment, 41, 189-207.



  1. D’Andrea, F., Provenzale, A., Vautard, R. and N. de Noblet, 2006: Hot and cool summers: multiple stable equilibria of water balance in the planetary boundary layer. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24807, doi:10.1029/2006GL027972.
  1. Vautard, R., M. Van Loon, M. Schaap, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, P.J.H. Builtjes, J. H. Christensen, K. Cuvelier,  A. Graf, J.E. Jonson, M. Krol, J. Langner, P. Roberts, L. Rouil, R. Stern, L. Tarrasón, P. Thunis, E. Vignati, L. White, P. Wind, 2006: Is regional air quality model diversity representative of uncertainty for ozone simulation ? Geophys.  Res. Lett., 33, L24818, doi:10.1029/2006GL027610.
  1. Hodzic, A., Vautard, R., Chazette, P., Menut, L., Bessagnet, B., 2006 : Aerosol chemical and optical properties over the Paris area within ESQUIF project, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 3257-3280.
  1. Szopa, S., Hauglustaine, D. A., Vautard, R., Menut, L., 2006 :  Future global tropospheric ozone changes and impact on European air quality. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14805, doi:10.1029/2006GL025860.
  1. Vautard, R., Szopa, S., Beekmann, M., Menut, L., Hauglustaine, D. A., Rouil, L., Roemer, M., 2006 :  Are decadal anthropogenic emission changes in Europe consistent with surface ozone observations? Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13810, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026080.
  1. Hodzic, A., Vautard, R., Chepfer, H., Goloub, P., Menut, L., Chazette, P., Deuzé, J.-L., Apituley, A. and P. Couvert, 2006: Evolution of aerosol optical thickness over Europe during the August 2003 heat wave as seen from CHIMERE model simulations and POLDER data. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 1853-1864.
  1. Hodzic, A., Bessagnet, B., and R. Vautard, 2006: A model evaluation of coarse-mode nitrate heterogeneous formation on dust particles. Atmospheric Environment, 40, 4158-4171.
  1. Chiriaco, M., Vautard, R., Chepfer, H., Haeffelin, M., Wanherdrick, Y., Morille, Y., Protat, A., and J. Dudhia, 2006: The Ability of MM5 to simulate Ice clouds: Systematic Comparison between Simulated and Measured Fluxes and Lidar/Radar profiles at SIRTA atmospheric observatory. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 897-918.



  1. Hodzic, A., Vautard, R., Bessagnet, B., Lattuati, M., and F. Moreto, 2005: On the quality of long-term urban particulate matter simulation with the CHIMERE model. Atmospheric Environment, 39, 5851-5864.
  1. Grancher, D., Bel, L. and R. Vautard, 2005: Estimation de champs de pollution par adaptation statistique locale et approche non-stationnaire. Journal Européen des Systèmes Automatisés, 39, 475-492.
  1. Vautard, R., Honoré, C., Beekmann, M. and L. Rouil, 2005: Simulation of ozone during the August 2003 heat wave and emission control scenarios. Atmospheric Environment, 39, 2957-2967.
  1. Vautard, R., Bessagnet, B., Chin, M. and Menut, L., 2005: On the contribution of natural Aeolian sources to particulate matter concentrations in Europe: Testing hypotheses with a modelling approach, Atmospheric Environment., 39, 3291-3303.
  1. Monteiro, A., Vautard, R., Borrego, C., and A. I. Miranda, 2005: Long-term simulations of photo oxidant pollution over Portugal using the CHIMERE model, Atmospheric Environment., 39, 3089-3101.
  1. Monteiro, A., Vautard, R., Lopes, M., Miranda, A., Borrego, C., 2005: Air pollution forecast in Portugal: A demand from the new air quality framework directive. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 15, 4-15.
  1. Zhang, B.-N., R. Vautard and N.-T. Kim Oanh, 2005: Comparison of two Photochemical Modelling Systems in a Tropical Urban Area, J. Air and Waste Management Association, 55, 903-918.
  1. Konovalov, I. B., Beekmann, M., Vautard, R., Burrows, J.-P., Richter, A., Nuss, H., Elansky, N., 2005: Comparison and evaluation of modelled and GOME measurement derived tropospheric NO2 columns over Western and Eastern Europe, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 5, 169-190.
  1. Haeffelin, M., et al., 2005: SIRTA: A ground-based atmospheric observatory for cloud and aerosol research. Annales Geophysicae, 23, 253-275.




  1. Blond, N., and R. Vautard, 2004: Three-dimensional ozone analyses and their use for short-term ozone forecasts, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2004JD004515.
  1. Hodzic A., Chepfer H., Vautard R., Chazette P., Beekmann M., Bessagnet B., Chatenet B., Cuesta J., Drobinski P., Goloub P., Haeffelin M., Morille Y., 2004: Comparisons of aerosol chemistry-transport model simulations with lidar and sun photometer observations at a site near Paris., J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2004JD004735.
  1. Honoré, C., Rouil, L., Malherbe, L., Bessagnet, B., Vautard, R., Poisson, N., Colosio, J., 2004 : Le système PREV’AIR : Cartographie et prévision de la qualité de l’air à grande échelle en Europe. Environnement, Risques & Santé, 3, 156-164.
  1. B. Bessagnet, A. Hodzic, R. Vautard, M. Beekmann, S. Cheinet, C. Honoré, C. Liousse and L. Rouil, 2004, Aerosol modeling with CHIMERE: preliminary evaluation at the continental scale. Atmospheric Environment, 38, 2803-2817.
  1. Wackernagel, H., Lajaunie, C., Blond, N., Roth, C., Vautard, R., 2004: Geostatistical risk mapping with chemical transport model output and ozone station data. Ecological Modelling, 179, 177-185.



  1. Vautard, R., Menut, L., Beekmann, M., Chazette, P., Flamant, P.-H., Gombert, D., Guedalia, D., Kley, D., Lefebvre, M.-P., Martin, D., Megie, G., Perros, P., Toupance, G., 2003 : A synthesis of the Air Pollution over Paris (ESQUIF) field campaign, J. Geophys. Res., 108, D17, 8558.
  1. Vautard, R., Martin, D, Beekmann, M. Drobinski, P., Friedrich, R., Jaubertie, A., Kley, D., Lattuati, M., Moral, P., Neininger, B., Theloke, J., 2003, Paris emission inventory diagnostics from ESQUIF airborne measurements and a chemistry transport model, J. Geophys. Res. 108, D17, 8564.
  1. Sillman, S., R. Vautard, L. Menut and D. Kley, 2003: O3-NOx-VOC sensitivity and NOx –VOC indicators in Paris: results from models and ESQUIF measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 108, D17, 8563.
  1. Blond, N., Bel, L. and Vautard, R., 2003: Three-dimensional ozone data analysis with an air quality model over the Paris area. J. Geophys. Res., 108, D17, 8564.




  1. Beckers, J.-M., et al., 2002: Model intercomparison in the Mediterranean: MEDMEX simulations of the seasonal cycle. J. Mar. Syst. 33–34, pp. 215–251.




  1. Vautard, R., M. Beekmann, J. Roux and D. Gombert, 2001: Validation of a hybrid forecasting system for the ozone concentrations over the Paris area. Atmos. Environ., 35, 2449-2461.
  1. D'Andrea, F. and R. Vautard, 2001: Extratropical low-frequency variability as a low-dimensional problem: Part I: A simplified model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 1357-1374.
  1. Schmidt, H., Derognat, C., Vautard, R., and Beekmann, M., 2001. A comparison of simulated and observed ozone mixing ratios for the summer of 1998 in Western Europe. Atmospheric Environment, 36, 6277-6297.



  1. Swanson, K., T. Palmer and R. Vautard, 2000: Observational error structures and the value of advanced assimilation techniques. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1327-1340.
  1. D'Andrea, F. and R. Vautard, 2000: Reducing systematic errors by empirically correcting model errors. Tellus, 52A, 21-41.
  1. Menut, L., Vautard, R., Beekmann, M., Honoré, C., 2000: Sensitivity of photochemical pollution using the adjoint of a simplified chemical-transport model. J. Geophys. Res., 105, D12, 15,379-15,402.
  1. Vautard, R., M. Beekmann, and L. Menut, 2000, Applications of adjoint modelling in atmospheric chemistry: sensitivity and inverse modelling, Environmental Modelling & Software, 15, 703-709.
  1. Menut, L., R. Vautard, C. Flamant, C. Abonnel, M. Beekmann, P. Chazette, P. H. Flamant, D. Gombert, D. Guedalia, D. Kley, M.-P. Lefebvre, B. Lossec, D. Martin, G. Mégie, P. Perros, M. Sicard, G. Toupance, 2000: Measurements and modelling of atmospheric pollution over the Paris area: An overview of the ESQUIF project. Annales Geophysicae, 18, 1467-1481.
  1. Honoré, C., R. Vautard and M. Beekmann, 2000, Low and high NOx chemical regimes in an urban environment, Environmental Modelling & Software, 15, 559-564
  1. Honoré, C., M.  Beekmann, and R. Vautard, 2000: Photochemical regimes in urban atmospheres: the influence of dispersion. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27 (13), 1895-1898.
  1. Carmichael, G., Moussiopoulos, N., Sportisse, B., Vautard, R., Verwer, J., 2000, Air pollution modelling and simulation – Preface. Environmental Modelling and Software, 15, 501-501.




  1. Vautard, R., G. Plaut, R. Wang and G. Brunet, 1999: Seasonal prediction of surface-air temperatures using space-time principal components. J. Climate, 12, 380-394.
  1. Kageyama, M., D'Andrea F., Ramstein G., Valdes P. J., and R. Vautard, 1999: Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations, Climate Dynamics, 15, 773-793.



  1. Moron, V., R. Vautard, and M. Ghil, 1998: Trends, interdecadal and interannual oscillations in global sea surface temperatures. Climate Dynamics, 14, 545-569.
  1. Michelangeli, P.-A., and R. Vautard, 1998: The dynamics of euro-atlantic blocking, 1998: Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 1045-1070.
  1. Swanson, K., R. Vautard and C. Pires, 1998: Four-dimensional variational assimilation and predictability in a quasi-geostrophic model. Tellus, 50A, 369-389.



  1. Da Costa, E. and R. Vautard, 1997: A qualitatively realistic low-order model of the extratropical low-frequency variability built from long records of potential vorticity. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1064-1084.
  1. Edouard, S., Vautard, R. and G. Brunet, 1997: On the maintenance of potential vorticity in isentropic coordinates, Quart. J. of the Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 2069-2094.




  1. Pires C., Vautard, R., Talagrand, O., 1996: On extending the limits of variational assimilation in nonlinear chaotic systems, 1996, Tellus, 48A, 96-121.

16. Sarda J., Plaut G., Pires C., Vautard R., 1996: Statistical and dynamical long-range atmospheric forecasts : experimental comparison and hybridization, Tellus A, 48, 518-537.

15. Vautard, R., Pires, C., and Plaut, G., 1996: Long-range atmospheric predictability using space-time principal components, Monthly Weather Rev., 124, 288-307.

14. Brunet, G., and Vautard, R., 1996: Empirical normal modes versus empirical orthogonal functions for statistical prediction, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3468-3489.



  1. Plaut, G.R., M. Ghil and R. Vautard, 1995: Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperature. Science, 268, 710-713.
  1. Michelangeli, P.A., Vautard, R., Legras, B., 1995: Weather regimes: recurrence and quasi-stationarity, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1237-1256.
  1. Brunet, G., Vautard, R., Legras, B., Edouard, S. 1995: Potential Vorticity on Isentropic Surfaces: Climatology and Diagnostics. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, 1037-1058.
  1. Yiou, P., M. Ghil, J. Jouzel, D. Paillard and R. Vautard, 1994: Nonlinear variability of the climatic system, from singular and power spectra of late Quaternary records, Climate Dynamics, 9, 371-389.
  1. Plaut, G. and R. Vautard, 1994: Spells of oscillations and weather regimes in the low-frequency dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 210-236.
  1. Vautard, R., Yiou, P., and M. Ghil, 1992: Singular-spectrum analysis: A toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals, Physica D:, 58, 95-126.
  1. Ghil, M. and R. Vautard, 1991: Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in global temperature time series. Nature, 350, 324-327.



  1. Vautard, R. 1990: Multiple Weather Regimes over the North Atlantic: Analysis of Precursors and Successors. Monthly Weather Review, 118, 2056-2081.
  1. Vautard, R., K. Mo, and M. Ghil, 1990: Statistical significance test for transition matrices of atmospheric Markov chains, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1926-1931.
  1. Vautard, R., and M. Ghil, 1989: Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series, Physica D, 35, 395-424.
  1. Vautard, R., B. Legras and M. Déqué, 1988: On the source of midlatitude low-frequency variability. Part I: A statistical approach to persistence. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2811-2843.
  1. Vautard, R., and B. Legras, 1988: On the source of midlatitude low-frequency variability. Part II: Nonlinear equilibration of weather regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2845-2867.
  1. Vautard, R., and B. Legras, 1986: Invariant manifolds, quasi-geostrophy and initialization, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 565-584.






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