Anticipating the effects of climate change is now an increasingly shared objective. Revision of this trend rests on two pillars: the reconstruction of past climate variations and the modelling of future variations, based on the physical laws that govern the climate. Knowledge of the past makes it possible to separate the effects attributable to man from the natural effects and to test the ability of the models to describe the climate.
We offer a global vision of climate change by providing a broad overview of climate trends, from those of the past (from the Mesolithic period, around 9,000 BC, to the beginning of the 21st century) to those predicted for the more or less near future. With a particular focus on climate change in mainland France, solidly established reconstructions and predictions are presented, primarily for the climate variables that have been studied most extensively to date: temperature and rainfall.
Reference : Daux V., Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri I. Le climat ses évolutions passées et futures. Chapitre 1, In : Adaptation des productions fruitières au changement climatique, Legave J.-M. coord., Editions quaea, Versailles, 19-38. ISBN : 978-2-7592+3251-2.
