Groupe de Travail Climat - Mécanique statistique

Objectifs

Le Groupe de Travail Climat - Mecanique Statistique a été créé par l'équipe ESTIMR (Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Regionalisations) du Laboratoire LSCE et l'équipe SphYNX du SPEC avec l'objectif de promouvoir les échanges entre les chercheurs qui travaillent à l'interface de ces deux sujets.

La participation est libre, les rencontres sont très informelles. Pour plus d'informations et nous contacter: robin.noyelle[at]lsce.ipsl.fr & davide.faranda[at]lsce.ipsl.fr (site web)

Prochaines Rencontres

- 15/05/2023 - 14h Corentin Herbert (ENS Lyon, France)

About probabilistic (un)predictability for climate problems

Climate is often defined as the long-term statistics of weather (that definition could of course be extended to other components of the climate system than just the atmosphere). In such a definition, the statistics do not depend on any particular choice of initial condition. On the other hand, the basic goal of weather forecasting is to make a deterministic prediction based on the current state of the system, i.e. the initial condition. Between these two cases are a variety of prediction problems, beyond the time horizon where the system behaves in a deterministic way, but where the probability of occurrence of the event still depends on the initial condition. This includes all the seasonal and decadal prediction problems for instance.

Here I will discuss the predictability of such events. Specifically, using a low-dimensional model of ENSO, I will show that there can exist regimes where the probability of occurrence of the event of interest (here a transition between different regimes of ENSO) depends sensitively on the initial condition, making it unpredictable in practice. I will discuss the potential consequences of this phenomenon for various climate problems.

The talk will be mostly based on the paper "Committor Functions for Climate Phenomena at the Predictability Margin: The Example of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Jin and Timmermann Model", D. Lucente, C. Herbert, and F. Bouchet, J. Atmos. Sci., 79:2387–2400, 2022 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0038.1.

Rencontres Passées

18/04/2023 Amaury Barral (SPEC, France) "Fluid Dynamics on Logarithmic Lattices"

01/03/2023 Didier Paillard (LSCE, France) "Maximizing entropy production as a way to build simple climate models"

20/01/2023 Basile Gallet (SPEC, France) "Meridional heat transport in idealized oceans"

08/12/2022 Bérengère Dubrulle (SPEC, France) "Hurricanes and convection with rotation"

11/10/2022 Justin Finkel (MIT, USA) "Transition path theory for rare event exploration: elucidating the critical dynamics of polar vortex breakdown"

19/07/2022 Valentin Wendling (Institut de recherche pour le développement, France) "Tipping points in hydrology: observed regional regime shift and
System Dynamics modeling"

13/06/2022 Tommaso Alberti (Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologia Spazial, Italy): "Chameleon attractors in turbulence"

06/04/2022 Reik Donner (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany): "Spatiotemporal variability pattterns and teleconnections in the global 
climate system: complex network and causal discovery perspectives"

10/02/2022 Vera Mélinda Galfi (Uppsala University, Sweden): "A large deviation theory-based analysis of persistent atmospheric extreme events"

09/12/2021 Abhishek Harikrishnan (Freie Universität, Berlin): "Geometry and organization of coherent structures in turbulent flows"

21/10/2021 Caroline Wormell (Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation, Sorbonne Université, Paris): "Linear response in high-dimensional globally coupled systems"

02/09/2021 Courtney Quinn (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart AU): "Dynamical analysis of data-driven reduced models for persistent atmospheric states" 

29/06/2021 Lucas Fery (LSCE-SPEC-CEA, France): "Latent Dirichlet Allocation technique for Atmospheric Circulation" 

30/03/2021 Bérengère Podvin (LIMSI, France): "Modèles pour la convection avec rayonnement"

11/01/2021 Valerio Lucarini (University of Reading, UK): "Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change using Large Deviation Theory"

05/10/2020 Hugues Faller (SPEC-SphynX,France): "On the nature of intermittency in a turbulent von Kármán flow"

7/06/2020 Amaury Barral  (SPEC-CEA France): "Peut on simuler le climat avec un ordinateur portable?"

07/04/2020 Alizee Chemison (LSCE, France)  "Impact of a rapid ice-sheet destabilisation on malaria burden in Africa"

09-11/03/2020 "Workshop on Energetics and Drivers of Extreme Convective Events" (le lien ouvre le programme et les presentations)

13/02/2020 Vincent Labarre (LSCE-SPEC, France): "Maximum Entropy Production and Coarse Grain in conceptual climate & turbulent models" 

27-29/11/2019 Workshop: "Rencontre distribution des événements extrêmes application a la climatologie"

05/11/2019 Valerio Lucarini (University of Reading, UK): "A New Mathematical Framework for Atmospheric Blocking Events"

28/10/2019 Adriano Gualandi (JPL,NASA,USA): "Geodetic imaging of tectonic deformation: implications for earthquakes predictability"

16/09/2019 Raphaël Raynaud (Dap-CEA,France): "Anisotropie du transport de chaleur entre les pôles et l’équateur dans des modèles de convection dans une coquille sphérique en rotation"

16/04/2019 Sebastien Fromang (Irfu/Dap-CEA,France): "Aquaplanet simulations with Dynamico: the subtle effect of the horizontal dissipation"

07/02/2019 Hugues Faller (SPEC-SphynX,France): "Numerical VS exeprimental stuides of von Karman Flow"

23/11/2018 Ted Shepherd (University of Reading, UK): "Ethics and the construction of regional climate-change information"

08-09/10/2018 Workshop: "Dynamical Systems in Climate Sciences" 
    -Yuzuru Sato (Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan) - Stochastic bifurcations in random dynamical systems
    -Francesco Ragone (ENS Lyon, France) - Simulation Simulation of extreme European Heat Waves with rare events algorithms
    -Berengere Dubrulle/Francois Daviaud (SPEC-CNRS-CEA Saclay, France) - Stochastic Chaos in a turbulent swirling flow
    -Nikki Vercauteren (Freie Universitaet Berlin, Germany) - Scale Interactions and anisotropy of turbulence in stable boundary layers
    -Stephane Vannitsem (RMI- Bruxelles, Belgium) - Is ocean surface wind stress key in the long term predictability of the atmosphere
    -Sandro Vaienti/Theo Caby (CPT Marseille, France) - Generalized dimensions as a tool to study the penultimate attractor
    -Davide Faranda (LSCE IPSL CNRS, France) - Dynamical indicators to study atmospheric flows and climate change

25/05/2018 Henri Benisty (Institut d'Optique,France) & Hervé Bercegol (SPEC-SphynX,France): "Statistical mechanics as a tool to understand the role of energy in the economy"

04/04/2018 Valerio Lucarini (UniReading, UK): "Constructing and Testing Parametrizations of Unresolved Processes in GFD"

12/03/2018 Sebastien Fromang (LSCE-CEA,France): "Transition between blocked and zonal flows in a rotating flow with bottom topography"

12/01/2018 Christophe Goupil (LIED, Paris,France): "From thermoelectricity to finite time thermodynamics: a closed loop approach to thermodynamics"

23/11/2017 Yuzuru Sato (Hokkaido University,Japan): "Anomalous diffusion in random dynamical systems"

03/10/2017 Nicholas Moloney (London Mathematical Laboratory,UK): "ELO rating system in Chess"

06/07/2017 Stefan Wieland (SPEC - SphynX,France): "The form of steady states in power transmission grids"

17/05/2017 Emmanuel Mouche (LSCE-CEA,France): "Modelisation des pics de crue comme phenomenes critiques: de la theorie des files d'attente à la physique statistique"

2/02/2017 Alexis Tantet (Uni Hamburg,Germany): "Ergodic Theory of climate: variability, stability and response"

14/12/2016 Carmen Alvarez-Castro (LSCE-CEA,France): "Changes in the atmospheric dynamics leading to West-European heatwaves since 1900."

15/11/2016 Workshop: "Applications of statistical-mechanics and dynamical systems to climate"

21/09/2016  Berengere Dubrulle (SPEC-SphynX,France): "Mieux maîtriser la turbulence : première observation d'événements singuliers de dissipation de l'énergie"

12/07/2016  Didier Paillard (LSCE-CEA,France): "CliMEP : un modèle de climat basé sur la maximisation de la production d'entropie"

13/04/2016  Guillaume Nevo (SPEC-SphynX,France): "Prevision et detection des crises dans les systèmes complexes"

05/02/2016  Yoann Robin (LSCE-CEA,France): "Pistes et Resultats sur l'utilisation de la Distance de Wasserstein"

08/12/2015  Berengere Dubrulle (SPEC-SphynX,France): "Vers une compréhension du principe de maximisation de production d'entropie"

15/10/2015  Hervé Bercegol (SPEC-SphynX,France): "Rayonnement électromagnétique, collisions inélastiques et production d'entropie"

16/06/2015  Pierre Sepulchre (LSCE-CEA,France): "La modélisation des niches écologiques"

23/03/2015  Alexandre Pohl & Gilles Ramstein (LSCE-CEA,France): "Régulations et déregulations du Climat aux grandes échelles de temps"

05/01/2015  Didier Paillard (LSCE-CEA,France) : "les mystères des abysses..."

#183 - : 09/05/2023