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Publications de l'équipe Estimr


  1. Adjoua, M.F., Janicot, S. Ochou, A.D., Vrac, M., Defrance, D., Sultan, B., Noël, T. A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using CDF-t method. A contribution to agricultural impact studies. Earth System Dynamics,

  2. Alvarez-Castro, Davide Faranda and Pascal Yiou. Atmospheric dynamics leading to West-European heatwaves since 1871. Complexity, Article ID 2494509, 2018.

  3. Balkanski, Y.; Menut, L.; Garnier, E.; Wang, R.; Evangeliou, N.; Jourdain, S.; Eschstruth, C.; Vrac, M. & Yiou, P. Mortality induced by PM2.5 exposure following the 1783 Laki eruption using reconstructed meteorological fields, Scientific Reports, 8, 15896-, 2018

  4. Benoit, L., Vrac, M. and Mariethoz, G. (2018) Dealing with non-stationarity in sub-daily stochastic rainfall models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5919-5933, 2018.

  5. Carella, G., Vrac, M., Brogniez, H., Yiou, P., and Chepfer, H.: Statistical downscaling of water vapour satellite measurements from profiles of tropical ice clouds, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., in review, 2019.

  6. Christiansen, B., C. Alvarez-Castro, N. Christidis, A. Ciavarella, I. Colfescu, T. Cowan, J. Eden, M. Hauser, N. Hempelmann, K. Klehmet, F. Lott, C. Nangini, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R. Orth, P. Stott, S. Tett, R. Vautard, L. Wilcox, and P. Yiou: Was the cold European winter 2009-2010 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study. J. Climate,  2018

  7. Coppola, E.; S. Sobolowski; E. Pichelli; F. Raffaele; B. Ahrens; I. Anders; N. Ban; S. Bastin; M. Belda; D. Belusic; A. Caldas-Alvarez; R. Margarida Cardoso; S. Davolio; A. Dobler; J. Fernandez; L. Fita Borrell; Q. Fumiere; F. Giorgi; K. Goergen; I. Guettler; T. Halenka; D. Heinzeller; Ø. Hodnebrog; D. Jacob; S. Kartsios; E. Katragkou; E. Kendon; S. Khodayar; H. Kunstmann; S. Knist; Á. Lavín; P. Lind; T. Lorenz; D. Maraun; L. Marelle; E. van Meijgaard; J. Milovac; G. Myhre; H.-J. Panitz; M. Piazza; M. Raffa; T. Raub; B. Rockel; C. Schär; K. Sieck; P. M. M. Soares; S. Somot; L. Srnec; P. Stocchi; M. Tölle; H. Truhetz; R. Vautard; H. de Vries; K. Warrach-Sagi, 2018, A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean, Clim. Dyn. 2018

  8. Debue, Denis Kuzzay, Davide Faranda, Ewe-Wey Saw, Francois Daviaud, Berengere Dubrulle. Dissipation, intermittency and singularities. Physical Review E, 97-053101, 2018

  9. Faranda, D., Sato, Y., Messori, G., Moloney, N. R., and Yiou, P.: Minimal dynamical systems model of the northern hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., in revision, 2019.

  10. Faranda, Valerio Lembo, Francois Daviaud and Berengere Dubrulle. Computation and characterization of local sub-filter-scale energy transfers in atmospheric flows. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1-12, 2018.

  11. Faranda & Sandro Vaienti. Correlation dimension and phase space contraction via extreme value theory. Chaos, 28, 0411103, 2018

  12. Faranda, Hamza Goudi, Pierre Guiraud, Sandro Vaienti. Synchronization and Extreme Value Theory for coupled map lattices. Nonlinearity, 31(7), 3326 2018.

  13. Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Stéphane Vannitsem. Attractor dimension of time-averaged climate observables: insights from a low-order ocean-atmosphere model. Tellus A,(71)1-11,2019.

  14. Faranda, Berengere Podvin, Anne Sergent. Reconciling embedding theorems and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition via the Rayleigh-Bénard convection. Accepted for publication Chaos, 2O19.

  15. Giamalaki, Claudie Beaulieu, Davide Faranda , Stephanie Henson, Simon Josey, Adrian Martin. Mechanisms triggering the 1976-77 regime shift in the North Pacific revealed by dynamical analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 123  4388-4397, 2018.

  16. Guin, O., P. Naveau and J.J. Boreux Extracting a Common Signal in Tree Ring Widths with a Semi-parametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 2018.

  17. Gutierrez, J.M., Maraun, D., Widman, M., Huth, R., Hertig, E., Benestad, R., Roessler, O., Wibig, J., Wilcke, R., Kotlarski, S., San Martin, D., Herrera, S., Bedia, J., Casanueva, A., Manzanas, R., Iturbide, M., Vrac, M., Dubrovsky, Ribalaygua, J., Portoles, J., Raty, O., Raisanen, J., Hingray, B., Raynaud, D., Casado, M.J., Ramos, P., Zerenner, T., Turco, M., Bosshard, T., Stepanek, P., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Keller, D.E., Fischer, A.M., Cardoso, R.M., Soares, P.M.M., Czernecki, B., Page, C. (2018) An intercomparison of a large ensemble of statistical downscaling methods over Europe: Results from the VALUE perfect predictor cross-validation experiment. Int. J. Climatol. 2018;1–36. 2018

  18. Hannart, A. and P. Naveau. Probabilities of Causation of Climate Changes. Journal of Climate,  2018.

  19. Hertig, E., Maraun, M., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Vrac, M., Mares, I., Guttierez Lorente, J.M., Wibig, J., Casanueva, A., Soares, P. (2018) Validation of extremes from the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE. Int. J. Climatol. 2018;1–22, 2018.

  20. Hempelmann, N., C. Ehbrecht, C. Alvarez-Castro, P. Brockmann, W. Falk, J. Hoffmann, S. Kindermann, B. Koziol, C. Nangini, S. Radanovics, R. Vautard and P. Yiou, 2018: Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyinpigeon (Version 1.0). Computers and Geoscience, vol. 110, p. 65-72.

  21. Jacob, D., Kotova, L., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S., Vautard, R., Donelly, C., Koutroulis, A., Grillakis, M., Tsanis, I., Damm, A., Sakalli, A., and M. van Vliet (2018): Climate impacts in Europe under +1.5oC global warming, Earth’s Future, 2018.

  22. Jézéquel, A., J. Cattiaux, P. Naveau, S. Radanovics, A. Ribes, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, and P. Yiou, 2018, Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett., vol. 13, no 5, p. 054007.

  23. Jézéquel, A., Dépoues, V., Guillemot, H., Vanderlinden J.-P., Yiou, P., Behind the veil of extreme event attribution, Climatic Change (2018).

  24. Jerez, S., J. M. Lopez-Romero, M. Turco, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, R. Vautard and J. P. Montavez, 2018 : Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate experiments, Nature Communications, vol. 9, no 1, p. 1304.

  25. Kew, S. F., S. Y. Philip, G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, R. Vautard, G. van der Schrier, and C. Tebaldi, 2018: Attribution of the exceptional summer heat wave in Southern Europe 2017, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc.

  26. Kjellström, E., G. Nikulin, G. Strandberg, O. B. Christensen, D. Jacob, K. Keuler, G. Lenderink, E. van Meijgaard, C. Schär, S. Somot, S. L. Sörland, C. Teichmann and R. Vautard (2018) European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, Earth System Dynamics, vol. 9, no 2, p. 459-478.

  27. Latombe, G., Burke, A., Vrac, M., Levavasseur, G., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M. and Ramstein, G. (2018) Comparison of spatial downscaling methods of general circulation models to study climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum. Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563−2579, 2018.

  28. Lian, J., L. Wu, F.-M.Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Vautard, T. Scott Zaccheo, J. Dobler, and P. Ciais, 2018: Evaluation of the WRF-UCM mesoscale model and ECMWF global operational forecasts over the Paris region in the prospect of tracer atmospheric transport modeling, Elementa – Science of the Anthropocene, 6, 2018.

  29. Luu, L., R. Vautard, P. Yiou, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and G. Lenderink, 2018, Attribution of extreme rainfall events in the South of France using EURO-CORDEX simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2018

  30. Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Van Loon, A.F., Maraun, D., Vrac, M. (2018) Soil Moisture Drought in Europe: A Compound Event of Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration on Multiple Timescales. J. Hydrometeor., 19, 1255–1271, 2018.

  31. Messori, G., Davini, P., Alvarez-Castro, M.C.,  Pausata F.S.R., Yiou P., Caballero R., On the low-frequency variability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic planetary wave-breaking, Clim Dyn (2018).

  32. Messori,  G., R. Caballero,  F. Bouchet, D. Faranda,  R. Grotjahn, N. Harnik, S.  Jewson, J. Pinto, G. Rivière, T. Woollings, and P. Yiou, 2018: An interdisciplinary approach  to the study of extreme weather events: large-scale atmospheric controls and insights from dynamical systems theory and statistical mechanics. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 2018.

  33. Mihelich, Berengere Dubrulle, Didier Paillard, Davide Faranda, Quentin Kral. Maximum Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy vs minimum mixing time in Markov chains. Journal of Statistical Physics, 170(1), 62-68, 2018.

  34. Naveau, P., A. Ribes, F. Zwiers, A. Hannart, A. Tuel, and P. Yiou: Revising return periods for record events in a climate event attribution context. J. Climate, ,2018.

  35. Oueslati B., Yiou P., Jézéquel A.: Revisiting the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the record-breaking January 2014 precipitation in the southern UK, Scientific Reports,  2019

  36. Permadi, D. A., Oanh, N. T. K., and R. Vautard, 2018, Assessment of co-benefits of black carbon emission reduction measures in Southeast Asia: Part 2 emission scenarios for 2030 and co-benefits on mitigation of air pollution and climate forcing. Atmos. Chem. And Phys., 2018.

  37. Philip, S., S. F. Kew, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Aalbers, R. Vautard, F. Otto, K. Haustein, F. Habets, R. Singh and H. Cullen (2018) Validation of a rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France to climate change, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19(11), 1881-1898.

  38. Raimonet, M., V. Thieu, M. Silvestre, L. Oudin, C. Rabouille, R. Vautard, and J. Garnier, 2018: Landward perspective of coastal eutrophication potential under future climate change: the Seine River case (France),Frontiers in Marine Science, 2018, vol. 5, p. 136.

  39. Ribes, A., S. Thao, R. Vautard, B. Dubuisson, S. Somot, J. Colin, S. Planton, J.-M. Soubeyroux, 2018 : Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean. Climate Dynamics, 1-20.

  40. Robin, Y., Vrac, M., Naveau, P., and Yiou, P.: Multivariate stochastic bias corrections with optimal transport, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., , in press, 2019.

  41. Rodrigues, D., M.C. Alvarez-Castro, G. Messori, P. Yiou, Y. Robin, and D. Faranda, 2018: Dynamical Properties of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation in the Past 150 Years in CMIP5 Models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis. J. Climate, 31, 6097–6111,

  42. Tobin, I., Greuell W., Jerez S., Ludwig F., Vautard R., van Vliet M.T.H., and Bréon F.-M., 2018: Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13 044024.

  43. Vautard, R., N. Christidis, A. Ciavarella, C. Alvarez-Castro, O. Bellprat, B. Christiansen, I. Colfescu, T. Cowan, F. Doblas-Reyes, J. Eden, M. Hauser, G. Hegerl, N. Hempelmann, K. Klehmet, F. Lott, C. Nangini, R. Orth, S. Radanovics, S. I. Seneviratne, G. J. van Oldenborgh, P. Stott, S. Tett, L. Wilcox, P. Yiou (2017) Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of climate and weather event human influence attribution in Europe. Climate Dynamics,2018.

  44. Vautard, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Yiou, P., de Vries, H., van Meijgaard, E., Stepek, A., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Philip, S., Kew, S. F., Costella, C., Singh, R., and Tebaldi, C.: Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018, ESSD  in revision, 2019.

  45. Vrac, M. Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) Bias Correction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175-3196,2018 .

  46. Waelbroeck, C., Pichat, S., Böhm, E., Lougheed, B.C., Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Missiaen, L., Vazquez Riveiros, N., Burckel, P., Lippold, J., Arz, H.W., Dokken, T, Thil, F., Dapoigny, A. (2018) Relative timing of precipitation and ocean circulation changes in the western equatorial Atlantic over the last 45 ky. Climate of the Past, 2018.

  47. Yiou, P. and Déandréis, C.: Stochastic Ensemble Climate Forecast with an Analogue Model, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,  accepted, 2019.

  48. Yiou P., J. Cattiaux, A. Ribes, R. Vautard, and M. Vrac, Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, Complexity, vol. 2018, Article ID 3140915, 8 pages,  2018


  1. Adjoua, M.F., Janicot, S. Ochou, A.D., Vrac, M., Defrance, D., Sultan, B., Noël, T. A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using CDF-t method. A contribution to agricultural impact studies. Earth System Dynamics, 2017

  2. Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobaek Haff, I., Widmann, M., Vrac, M. (2017) Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Compound Events via Pair-Copula Constructions: Analysis of Floods in Ravenna (Italy). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, 2017.

  3. Burke, A., Kageyama, M., Latombe, G., Fasel, M., Vrac, M., Ramstein, G., James, P. (2017) Risky business: the impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Las Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 164, Pages 217−229, ISSN 0277−3791, 2017.

  4. Carreau, J., P. Naveau and L. Neppel. Partitioning into hazard subregions for regional peaks-over-threshold modeling of heavy precipitation. Water Resour. Res., 53,4407–4426, 2017.

  5. Colette, A., Andersson, A., Manders, A., Mar, K., Mircea, M., Pay, M.-T., Raffort, V., Tsyro, S., Cuvelier, C., Adani, M., Bessagnet, B., Bergström, R., Briganti G., Butler, T., Cappelletti, A., Couvidat, F., D'Isidoro, M., Doumbia, T., Fagerli, H., Granier, C., Heyes, C., Klimont, Z., Ojha, N., Otero, N., Schaap, M., Sindelarova, K., Stegehuis, A. I., Roustan, Y., Vautard, R., van Meijgaard, E., Vivanco, M.G., and P. Wind, P., 2017: EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010, Geoscientific Model Development 10, 3255-3276, 2017.

  6. Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Vrac, M., Adjoua, M.F., Sultan, B., Swingedouw, D., Dumas, C., Gemenne, F., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Vanderlinden, J.-P. (2017) Consequences of rapid ice-sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 114 (25), pp. 6533−6538, 2017.

  7. Dione, F. Lohou, M. Chiriaco, M. Lothon, S. Bastin, J.-L. Baray, P. Yiou, A. Colomb. The influence of synoptic circulations and local processes on temperature. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 56, (1)

  8. Dongik Jang, Hee-Seok Oh and P. Naveau. Identifying Local Smooth- 1/6 ness for Spatially Inhomogeneous Functions. Computional Statistics,, 2017.

  9. Faranda, Gabriele Messori and Pascal Yiou. Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes. Scientific Reports, 7-41278, 2017.

  10. Faranda, Martin Mihelich and Berengere Dubrulle. A Non equilibrium Ising model of Turbulence. Phase Transitions, 2017.

  11. Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Brice Saint-Michel, Cecile Wiertel-Gasquet, Vincent Padilla, Berengere Dubrulle, & Francois Daviaud. Stochastic chaos in a turbulent swirling flow. Physical review letters, 119, 014502, 2017. 

  12. Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Pascal Yiou, Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713-725, 2017.

  13. Fortems-Cheiney, A., G. Foret, G. Siour, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, G. Dufour, A. Colette, G. Lacressonniere and M. Beekmann, 2017 : A 3°C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory annihilates the benefits of European emission reductions on air quality. Nature Communications, 2017.

  14. Hempelmann N., Ehbrecht C., Alvarez-Castro C., Brockmann P., Falk W., Hoffmann J., Kindermann S., Koziol B., Nangini C., Radanovics S., Vautard R., Yiou P., Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0), Computers & Geosciences, 110, 65-72, 2017

  15. Jacob, D., Kotova, L., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S., Vautard, R., Donelly, C., Koutroulis, A., Grillakis, M., Tsanis, I., Damm, A., Sakalli, A., and M. van Vliet (2017): Climate impacts in Europe under +1.5oC global warming, Earth’s Future, 2017.

  16. Jézéquel A., Yiou P., Radanovics S., Vautard R., Analysis of the exceptionally warm December 2015 in France using flow analogues. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 2017

  17. Jézéquel, A., Yiou, P. & Radanovics, S., Role of circulation in European heatwaves using flow analogues, Clim Dyn (2017).

  18. Kojadinovic I. and P. Naveau. Detecting distributional changes in samples of independent block maxima using probability weighted moments Extremes. Extremes, June 2017, Volume 20, Issue 2, pp 417–450.

  19. Kuzzay, Ewe-Wei Saw, Fabio Martins, Davide Faranda, Jean-Marc Foucaut, Francois Daviaud and Berengere Dubrulle. New criteria to detect singularities in experimental incompressible flows. Nonlinearity, 30(2381), 2017.

  20. Lacressonnière, G. L. Watson, . Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Andersson, M. Beekmann, A. Colette, G. Foret, B. Josse, V. Marécal, A. Nyiri, G. Siour, S. Sobolowski and R. Vautard (2017). Particulate matter air pollution in a +2°C warming world. Atmos. Environ., 154, 129-140.

  21. Marcon G., S. A. Padoan, P. Naveau, P. Muliere and J. Segers Multivariate Nonparametric Estimation of the Pickands Dependence Function using Bernstein Polynomials. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 183, 1–17, 2017.

  22. Marcon G., P. Naveau and S. Padoan. A semi-parametric stochastic generator for bivariate extreme events. STAT, DOI : 10.1002/sta4.145, Volume 6, Issue 1, Pages : 184–201, 2017.

  23. Mhalla L., V. Chavez-Demoulin, P. Naveau. Non Linear Models for Extremal Dependence. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Volume 159, April 2017, Pages 49–66, 2017.

  24. Messori, Rodrigo Caballero and Davide Faranda. A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, GL0728879, 2017.

  25. Mihelich, Davide Faranda, Didier Paillard and Berengere Dubrulle. Is turbulence a state of maximal dissipation? Entropy, 19(4),154, 2017

  26. Nevo, Nikki Vercauteren, Amandine Kaiser, Berengere Dubrulle, Davide Faranda. A statistical-mechanical approach to study the hydrodynamic stability of stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer. Physical Review Fluids, 2, 084603, 2017.

  27. Robin, Y., Yiou, P., and Naveau, P.: Detecting changes in forced climate attractors with Wasserstein distance, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 393-405,  2017

  28. Tuel, A., P. Naveau and C. M. Ammann. Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2868–2874, .

  29. Virot, Davide Faranda, Xavier Amandolese, Pascal Hemon. Chaotic dynamics of flags from recurring values of flapping moent.  International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 27-02, 2017.

  30. Volosciuk, C., Maraun, D., Vrac, M. and Widmann, M. (2017) A Combined Statistical Bias Correction and Stochastic Downscaling Method for Precipitation. Accepted by Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

  31. Wilcox, L.J., Yiou, P., Hauser, M., Lott, F.C., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Colfescu, I, Dong, B., Hegerl, G., Shaffrey, L., Sutton, R. Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change, Climate Dynamics, 1-19, 2017

  32. Yiou P., A. Jézéquel, P. Naveau, F. E. L. Otto, R. Vautard, and M. Vrac, A Statistical Framework for Conditional Extreme Event Attribution, Adv. Stat. Climalol. Meteorol. Oceanogr.

  33. Zamo M. and P. Naveau. Estimation of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score with Limited Information Mathematical Geosciences, 2017.


  1. Balog, I., P. M. Ruti, I. Tobin, V. Armenio, and R. Vautard, 2016: A numerical approach for planning offshore wind farms from regional to local scales over the Mediterranean. Renewable Energy, 85, 395-405.

  2. Chavaillaz, Y., S. Joussaume, A. Dehecq, P. Braconnot and R. Vautard, 2016 : Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century, Climatic Change.

  3. Faranda, Jorge Milhazes Freitas, Pierre Guiraud, and Sandro Vaienti.  Statistical Properties of Random Dynamical Systems with Contracting Direction.  Journal of Physics A, 49-204001, 2016.

  4. Faranda, Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Pascal Yiou: Robust Return Times of hot and cold days via recurrences and extreme value theory. Climate Dynamics, 1-13, 2016.

  5. Faranda, Jorge Milhazes Freitas, Pierre Guiraud, and Sandro Vaienti. Extreme value theory for piecewise contracting maps with noise. Stochastics and Dynamics, 16(3), 1660015, 2016.

  6. Faranda and Dimitri Defrance: A wavelet-based-approach to detect climate change on the coherent and turbulent component of the atmospheric circulation. Earth System Dynamics, 7 517-523, 2016.

  7. Faranda. Applications of Chaos Theory, chapter : Applications of extreme value theory for dynamical systems to the analysis of blood pressure data. CRC/Taylor and Francis edited by: Christos H Skiadas, United Kingdom, 2016. [chapter-pdf]

  8. Hannart A., J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau and M. Ghil. Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events. BAMS, JANUARY | 99-110, 2016.

  9. Hannart A., A. Carrassi, M. Bocquet, M. Ghil, P. Naveau, M. Pulido, J. Ruiz, P. Tandeo. DADA : Data Assimilation for the Detection and Attribution of Weather and Climate-related Events. Climatic Change.

  10. Grouillet, B., Ruelland, D., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M. (2016) Sensitivity analysis of runoff modeling to statistical downscaling models in the western  Mediterranean. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 1031-1047, doi: 10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016.

  11. Jang, Hee-Seok Oh and P. Naveau. Identifying Local Smoothness for Spatially Inhomogeneous Functions. Computional Statistics. 

  12. Kojadinovic I. and P. Naveau. Detecting distributional changes in samples of independent block maxima using probability weighted moments Extremes. In press, 2016. (arXivPDF)

  13. Lake, I. R., N. R. Jones, M. Agnew, C. M. Goodess, F. Giorgi, L. Hamaoui-Laguel, M. Semenov, F. Solmon, J. Storkey, R. Vautard and M. Epstein, 2016: Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ. Health. Persp.

  14. Lacressonnière G, Foret G, Beekmann M, Siour G, Engardt M., Gauss M, Watson L, Andersson C ,Colette A, Josse B, Marécal V, Nyiri A., Vautard R., Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties, Climatic change.

  15. Liu, L., F. Solmon, R. Vautard, L. Hamaoui-Laguel, Cs. Zs. Torma, and F. Giorgi, 2016: Estimates of common ragweed pollen emission and dispersion over Europe using RegCM-pollen model. Biogeoscience.

  16. LucariniDavide FarandaAna Cristina Gomes Monteiro Moreira de Freitas,Jorge Miguel Milhazes de FreitasMark HollandTobias KunaMatthew NicolMike ToddSandro Vaienti. Book: Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems. ISBN 978-1-118-63219-2, 312 pages, Wiley, 2016.

  17. Markakis, K., M. Valari, M. Engardt, G. Lacressonniere, R. Vautard and C. Andersson, 2015: Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions. Case studies for Paris and Stockholm. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

  18. Naveau, R. Huser, P. Ribereau and A. Hannart.    Modelling jointly low, moderate and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection. Water Resources Research, 10.1002/2015WR018552, 2016.

  19. Ouzeau, G., J.-M. Soubeyroux, M. Schneider, R. Vautard and S. Planton, 2016: Heat waves analysis over France in present and future climate : application of a new method on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. Climate Services.

  20. Panthou, G., Vrac, M., M., Drobinski, P., Bastin, S., Li, L. (2016) Impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling on hydrometeorological extremes in RCMs in the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX. In press in Climate Dynamics.

  21. Pernin, J., Vrac, M., M., Crevoisier, C., Chédin, A. Mixture model-based air mass classification: A probabilistic view of thermodynamic profiles. In press in Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography (ASCMO).

  22. Raynaud, D., B. Hingray, I. Zin, S. Anquetin, S. Debionne, and R. Vautard, 2016: Atmospheric analogs for physically consistent scenarios of surface weather in Europe and Maghreb. Int. J. of Climatology.

  23. Ribes A., F. Zwiers, J.M. Azais, P. Naveau. A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution. Climate Dynamics, DOI : 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0260.1, 2016.

  24. Saw, Denis Kuzzay, Davide Faranda, Alex Guittonneau, Francois Daviaud, Cecile Wiertel-Gasquet, Vincent Padilla, Berengere Dubrulle. Experimental characterization of extreme events of inertial dissipation in a turbulent swirling flow. Nature Communications, 7, 12466, 2016.

  25. Schaller, N., A. L. Kay, R. Lamb, N. R. Massey, G.-J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, S. N. Sparrow, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, A. Bowery, S. M. Crooks, C. Huntingford, W. Ingram, R. Jones, T. Legg, J. Miller, J. Skeggs, D. Wallom, S. Wilson & M. R. Allen, 2015, Human influence on climate in the 2014 Southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2927.

  26. Stott, P., N. Christidis, F. Otto, Y. Sun, J.-P. Vanderlinden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. Vautard, H. von Storch, P. Walton; P. Yiou, F. Zwiers, 2016, Attribution of extreme events. WIRES Climate Change, 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380.

  27. Taillardat M., O. Mestre, M. Zamo, P. Naveau. Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics. Monthly Weather Review, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3079-6, 2016.

  28. Tobin, I., Jerez, S., Vautard, R., Thais, F., Déqué, M., Kotlarski, S., Fox Maule, C., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Noel, T., Prein, A., Teichmann, C., 2015: Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario. Environ. Res. Lett.

  29. Vautard, R., P. Yiou, F. Otto, P. Stott, N. Christidis, G. J. van Oldenborgh and N. Schaller, 2016: Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events. Environ. Res. Letters.

  30. Vrac, M., Vaittinada Ayar, P. (2016) Influence of bias correcting predictors on statistical downscaling models. In press in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

  31. Vrac, M., Noël, T., Vautard, R. Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because Occurrences matter. In press in JGR-Atmosphere. 

  32. Watson, L., G. Lacressonnière, M. Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Andersson, B. Josse, V. Marécal, A. Nyiri, S. Sobolowski, G. Siour and R. Vautard, 2016: The impact of emissions and +2°C climate change upon future ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe. Atmos. Environ., in press.

  33. Zhao Y., B. Sultan, R. Vautard, P. Braconnot, H.J. Wang and A. Ducharne, 2015: Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socio-economic changes in China. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., in press.


  1. Ailliot P., D. Allard , V. Monbet and P. Naveau. Stochastic weather generators : an overview of weather type models. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, Vol. 156 No. 1 101-113

  2. Bador, M., P. Naveau, E. Gilleland, M. Castellà, T. Arivelo, Spatial clustering of summer temperature maxima from the CNRM-CM5 climate model ensembles & E-OBS over Europe. Weather and Climate Extremes (2015),

  3. Bechler, M. Vrac, L. Bel (2015). A spatial hybrid approach for downscaling of extreme precipitation fields. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmosphere. 

  4. Bechler, L. Bel, M. Vrac (2015). Conditional simulations of extremal t process for fields of extreme precipitation. Spatial Statistics.

  5. Berrisford, P., I. Tobin, R. J. H. Dunn, R. Vautard and T. R. McVicar, Eds., 2015: Land surface Wind speed. Regional climates [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (7), S169–S219.

  6. Bothe, O., Evans, M., Donado, L.F., Bustamante, E.G., Gergis, J., Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F., Goosse, H., Hegerl, G., Hind, A., Jungclaus, J., Kaufman, D., Lehner, F., McKay, N., Moberg, A., Raible, C.C., Schurer, A., Shi, F., Smerdon, J.E., Von Gunten, L., Wagner, S., Warren, E., Widmann, M., Yiou, P., Zorita, E., Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium (2015) Climate of the Past, 11 (12), pp. 1673-1699.

  7. Boucher O., Dufresne J.-L., Vial J., Brun É., Cattiaux J., Chauvin F., Salas y Mélia D., Voldoire A., Bopp L., Braconnot P., Ciais P., Yiou P., Guilyardi É., Mignot J., Guivarch C. (2015). Projection des changements climatiques futurs. La Météorologie, 88, 56-68.

  8. Casanueva, A., S. Kotlarski, S. Herrera, J. Fernandez, J. M. Guttierez, F. Boberg, A. Colette, O. B. Christensen, K. Goergen, D. Jacob, K. Keuler, G. Nikulin, C. Teichmann, and R. Vautard, 2015: daily precipitation statistics in the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: Added value of a high resolution and implications for bias correction. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.​1007/​s00382-015-2865-x).

  9. Cattiaux, J., Douville, H., Schoetter, R., Parey, S., & Yiou, P. (2015). Projected increase in diurnal and interdiurnal variations of European summer temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(3), 899-907.

  10. Faranda, Giacomo Masato, Nicholas Moloney, Yuzuru Sato, Berengere Dubrulle, Francois Daviaud, and Pascal Yiou. The switching between zonal and blocked mid-latitude atmospheric circulation from a dynamical systems perspective. Climate Dynamics, 1-13, 2015.

  11. Faranda, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Eugenio Giachino, Sandro Vaienti, and Berengere Dubrulle. Early warnings indicators of financial crises via auto regressive moving average models. Communications in non-linear sciences and numerical simulations, 29(1-3) 233-239, 2015. 

  12. Essl, F., K. Biro, D. Brandes, O. Broennimann, J. M. Bullock, D. S. Chapman, B. Chauvel, S. Dullinger, B. Fumanal, A. Guisan, G. Karrer, G. Kazinczi, C. Kueffer, B. Laitung, C. Lavoie, M. Leitner, T. Mang, D. Moser, H. Müller-Schärer, B. Petitpierre, R. Richter, U. Schaffner, M. Smith, U. Starfinger, R. Vautard, G. Vogl, M. von der Lippe & S. Follak, 2014:Biological flora of the British Isles: Ambrosia artemisiifolia, J. Ecology, in press.

  13. Garcia-Diez, M., J. Fernandez and R. Vautard, 2015 : An RCzM multi-physics ensemble over Europe : Multi-variable evaluation to avoid error compensation. Clim. Dyn, 1-16.

  14. Goore Bi, E., Gachon, P., Vrac, M., Monette, F. (2015). Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of Current approaches and Trends. Accepted in Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

  15. Jerez, S., Thais, F., Tobin, I., Wild, M., Colette, A., Yiou, P., and R. Vautard, 2015: The CLIMIX model: a tool to create and evaluate spatially-resolved scenarios of photovoltaic and wind power development. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 42, 1-15.

  16. Jerez, S., I. Tobin, R. Vautard, J. P. Montávez, J. M. López-Romero, F. Thais, B. Bartok, O. B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, S. Kotlarski, E. van Meijgaard, C. Teichmann, and M. Wild, 2015: The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms10014.

  17. Kuzzay,  Davide Faranda and Berengere Dubrulle. Global and local energy dissipation in turbulent von karman flow. Physics of Fluids, 27-075105, 2015.

  18. Hamaoui-Laguel, L., R. Vautard, L. Liu, F. Solmon, N. Viovy, D. Khvorostyianov, F. Essl, I. Chuine, A. Colette, M. A. Semenov, A. Schaffhauser, J. Storkey, M. Thibaudon and M. Epstein, 2015: Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe. Nature Climate Change, 5, 766-U186.

  19. Katragkou, E., M. Garcia-Diez, R. Vautard, S. Sobolowski, P. Zanis, G. Alexandri, R.M. Cardoso, A. Colette, J. Fernandez, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, T. Karacostas, S. Knist, S. Mayer, P.M.M. Soares, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, A. Tsikerdekis, and D. Jacob, 2014: Hindcast regional climate simulations within EURO-CORDEX: Evaluation of a WRF multi-physics ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development., 8, 603-618.

  20. Kinney, P., Schwartz, J., Pascal, M., Petkova, E. Le Tertre, A. Medina, S. and Vautard, R., Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?, 2015 Environ. Res. Lett., 10, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064016.

  21. Koch E. and P. Naveau. A frailty-contagion model for multi-site hourly precipitation driven by atmospheric covariates. Advances in Water Resources 78 (2015) 145–154, 2015. arXiv PDF

  22. Mihelich, Davide Faranda, Berengere Dubrulle, and Didier Paillard. Statistical optimization for passive scalar transport: maximum entropy production vs maximum kolmogorov-sinay entropy. Non linear Processes in Geophysics, 22, 187-196, 2015.

  23. Miller, L. M., N. A. Brunsell, D. B. Mechem, F. Gans, A. J. Monaghan, R. Vautard, D. W. Keith, and A. Kleidon, 2014: Two methods for estimating limits to large-scale wind power generation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 11169-11174.

  24. Ortega, P., Lehner, F., Swingedouw, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Raible, C. C., Casado, M., & Yiou, P. (2015). A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium. Nature, 523(7558), 71-74.

  25. Prein, A., A. Gobiet, H. Truehetz, K. Keuler, K. Goergen, C. Teichmann, C. Fox Maule, E. van Meijgaard, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, R. Vautard, A. Colette, E. Kjellström, 2014: Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits? Climate Dynamics, in press.

  26. Schucht, S., A. Colette, S. Rao, M. Holland, W. Schöpp, P. Kolp, Z. Klimont, B. Bessagnet, S. Szopa, R. Vautard, J.-M. Brignon, and L. Rouil, 2014: Moving towards ambitious climate policies: monetized health benefits from improved air quality could improve offset mitigation costs. Envion. Sci. and Policy, 50, 252-269.

  27. Sielenou P., Eckert N. and P. Naveau. A limiting distribution for maxima of discrete stationary triangular arrays with an application to risk due to avalanches. Extremes, DOI 10.1007/s10687- 015-0234-0, 2015.

  28. Stegehuis, A., R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A.J. Teuling, D.G. Miralles, and M. Wild, 2014: An observation-constrained multi-physics RCM ensemble for simulating European mega-heatwaves. Geosc. Model Dev., doi:10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015.

  29. Tobin, I., R. Vautard, I. Balog, F.-M. Bréon, S. Jerez, P. Ruti, F. Thais, M. Vrac, and P. Yiou, 2015: Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Climatic Change, 128, 99-112.

  30. Toreti A. and P. Naveau. On the evaluation of climate model simulated precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (2015) 014012, 2015.

  31. Troin, M., Vrac, M., Khodri, M., Caya, S., Vallet-Coulomb, C., Piovano, E., Sylvestre, F. (2015). A complete hydro-climate model chain to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variability in subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina), Accepted by Climate Dynamics.

  32. van Oldenborgh, G.-J., D. B. Stephenson, A. Sterl, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, S. S. Drijfhout, H. von Storch and H. van den Dool, 2015: comment on ‘Potential influences on the United Kingdom floods of Winter 2013/2014 by Huntingford et al’, Nature Climate Change, 5, 490-491.

  33. Vautard, R., G.-J. van Oldenborgh, S. Thao, B. Dubuisson, G. Lenderink, A. Ribes, S. Planton, J.-M. Soubeyroux, P. Yiou (2015): Extreme fall precipitations in the Cévennes mountains. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. Suppl. On “explaining extreme events of 2014 from a climate perspective”, 96, S56-S60.

  34. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Carreau, J., Déqué, M., Gallardo, C. (2015) Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: Present climate evaluations. Accepted by Climate Dynamics.

  35. Yiou P. (2015) Le Temps s'est-il détraqué?, Buchet-Chastel, Paris

  36. Watson, L., G. Lacressonnière, M. Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Anderson, B. Josse, V. Marecal, A. Nyiri, S. Sobolowski, G. Siour, and R. Vautard, 2015, The impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe. Atmospheric Environment, 119, 240-257.

  37. Zeng, Z., A. Chen, P. Ciais, Y.Li, L. Z. X. Li, R. Vautard, L. Zhou, H. Yang, M. Huang & S. Piao, 2014: Regional air pollution brightening reverses the greenhouse gases induced warming-elevation relationship. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10. 1002/2015GL064410.

  38. Zhao Y., A. Ducharne, B. Sultan, P. Braconnot, and R. Vautard, 2015: Modeling climate change impacts on human heat stress: present-day biases and future uncertainties in CMIP5. Environ. res. Lett., 10, 084013.




  1. Bechler, M. Vrac, L. Bel (2015). A spatial hybrid approach for downscaling of extreme precipitation fields. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmosphere. Accepted.Goore Bi, E., Gachon, P., Vrac, M., Monette, F. (2015). Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of Current approaches and Trends. Accepted in Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

  2. Burke, G. Levavasseur, P. James, D. Guiducci, M. Izquierdo, L. Bourgeon, M. Kageyama, G. Ramstein and M. Vrac (2014). Exploring the impact of climate variability on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Accepted by Journal of Human Evolution.

  3. Eden, M. Widmann, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, (2014). Comparison of GCM- and RCM-simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 119, 11,040–11,053, doi:10.1002/2014JD021732.

  4. Guillou, P. Naveau, A. Schorgen, Madogram and asymptotic independence among maxima (REVSTAT- Volume 12, Number 2, June 2014) GuillouNaveauSchorgen13.pdf.

  5. Guillou .A, Naveau P., You A., A folding methodology for multivariate extremes: estimation of the spectral probability measure and actuarial applications (Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, In press).

  6. Hannart A. and P. Naveau. Estimating high dimensional covariance matrices: a new look at the Gaussian conjugate framework. 131, 149-162, 2014..

  7. Hannart, A., A. Ribes, and P. Naveau (2014), Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1261–1268, doi:10.1002/2013GL058653.

  8. Hannart, A., Mestre, O. and Naveau, P. (2014), An automatized homogenization procedure via pairwise comparisons with application to Argentinean temperature series. Int. J. Climatol.. doi: 10.1002/joc.3925.

  9. Jacob, D., J. Petersen, B. Eggert, A. Alias, O. B. Christensen, L. M. Bouwer, A. Braun, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Georgievski, E. Georgopoulou, A. Gobiet, G. Nikulin, A. Haensler, N. Hempelmann, C. Jones, K. Keuler, S. Kovats, N. Kröner, S. Kotlarski, A. Kriegsmann, E. Martin, E. van Meijgaard, C. Moseley, S. Pfeifer, S. Preuschmann, K. Radtke, D. Rechid, M. Rounsevell, P. Samuelsson, S. Somot, J.-F. Soussana, C. Teichmann, R. Valentini, R. Vautard, and B. Weber, 2014, EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Regional Environmental change, 14, 563-578.

  10. Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297-1333, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.

  11. Lacressonnière, G., V.-H. Peuch, R. Vautard, J. Arteta, M. Déqué, M. Joly, B. Josse, V. Marécal, and D. Saint-Martin, 2014, European air quality in the 2030s and 2050s: impacts of global and regional emission trends and of climate change. Atmospheric Environment, in press.

  12. Lee, M., F. Nordio, A. Zanobetti, P. Kinney, R. Vautard and J. Schwartz, 2013: Acclimatization across space and time in the effects of temperature on mortality. Environ. health, in press.

  13. Markakis, K., M. Valari, A. Colette, O. Sanchez, O. Perrussel, C. Honore, R. Vautard, Z. Klimont, and S.T. Rao, 2014 : Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale. Atmos. Chem.and Phys., 14, 7323-7340.

  14. Naveau,  A. Toreti, I. Smith and E. Xoplaki.. A fast non-parametric spatio-temporal regression scheme for Pareto distributed heavy precipitation.  Water Resources Research. DOI: 10.1002/2014WR015431, 2014.

  15. Naveau, P., Guillou, A. and Rietsch, T. (2014), A non-parametric entropy-based approach to detect changes in climate extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B(Statistical Methodology). doi: 10.1111/rssb.12058.

  16. Ortega, P., D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, B. Vinther, P. Yiou, R. Vautard and K. Yioshimura, 2013: Characterizing atmospheric circulation signals in Greenland ice cores: insights from the weather regime approach. Climate Dynamics, in press.

  17. Ribereau P, Masiello E. and P. Naveau. Skew Generalized Extreme Value Distribution: Probability Weighted Moments Estimation and Application to Block Maxima Procedure (to appear in Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods)

  18. Rietsch, P. Naveau, N. Gilardi and A. Guillou, Network design for heavy rainfall analysis, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020867

  19. Sabourin, A. , Naveau, P.  Bayesian Dirichlet mixture model for multivariate extremes: A re-parametrization .   Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Volume 71, March 2014, Pages 542-567.SabourinNaveau12_3.pdf

  20. Tobin, R. Vautard , I. Balog , F.-M. Bréon , S. Jerez , P. Ruti , F. Thais , M. Vrac , P. Yiou (2014). Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Accepted by Climatic Change.

  21. Vautard, R.,  A. Gobiet, S. Sobolowski, E. Kjellström, A. Stegehuis, P. Watkiss, T. Mendlik, O. Landgren, G. Nikulin, C. Teichmann, D. Jacob, 2013, The European climate under a 2°C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., in press.

  22. Vautard R., F. Thais, I. Tobin, F.-M. Bréon, J.-G. Devezeaux de Lavergne, A. Colette, P. Yiou, and P. M. Ruti, 2014 : Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms, Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms4196.

  23. Vrac and P. Friederichs. Multivariate - Inter-variable, spatial and temporal - bias correction. Accepted by Journal of Climate (preprint, R package ECBC_1.1.tar.gz).

  24. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut (2014). Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781-1785. Accepted by Climate of the Past.

  25. Wong, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, M. Widmann, J. Eden, T. Kent (2014). Stochastic model output statistics for bias correcting and downscaling precipitation 


  1. Bernard E., P. Naveau, M. Vrac and O. Mestre (2013). Clustering of maxima: Spatial dependencies among heavy rainfall in France. Journal of Climate, 26, 7929–7937, doi:   

  2. Casado M., P. Ortega, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Swingedouw, V. Daux, D. Genty, F. Maignan, O. Solomina, B. Vinther, N. Viovy, and P. Yiou, Impact of precipitation intermittency on NAO-temperature signals in proxy records, Clim. Past, 9, 871-886, 2013    

  3. Cattiaux, J. et Yiou P., U.S. heat waves of spring and summer 2012 from the flow-analogue perspective [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”], Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 9, 2013  

  4. Cattiaux, J.; Quesada, B.; Arakelian, A.; Codron, F.; Vautard, R. & Yiou, P., North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperature extremes in the IPSL model: sensitivity to atmospheric resolution, Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40, 2293-2310    

  5. Colette, A., B. Bessagnet, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, S. Rao, L. Menut, G. Clain, F. Meleux, S. Schucht, Z. Klimont, and L. Rouïl, 2013 : European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios. Atmos. Chem. and Phys., 13, 7451-7471.    

  6. Deroche M-S., M. Choux, F. Codron, and P. Yiou, Three variables are better than one: detection of European winter windstorms causing important damages, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 4257-4285, 2013    

  7. Fernández-Donado L., J. F. González-Rouco, C. C. Raible, C. M. Ammann, D. Barriopedro, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, J. Servonnat, D. Swingedouw, S. F. B. Tett, S. Wagner, P. Yiou, and E. Zorita, Temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium, Clim. Past, 9, 393-421, 2013    

  8. Gazeaux J., D. Batista, C. Amman, P. Naveau, and C. Jégat. Extracting common pulse- like signals from multiple ice core time series. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 58 :45–57, 2013.    

  9. Hannart A., M. Ghil, J-L. Dufresne, and P. Naveau. Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty. Climate change, 119(3-4) :585–601, 2013.    

  10. Jacob, D.; Petersen, J.; Eggert, B.; Alias, A.; Christensen, O. B.; Bouwer, L. M.; Braun, A.; Colette, A.; Déqué, M.; Georgievski, G.; Georgopoulou, E.; Gobiet, A.; Menut, L.; Nikulin, G.; Haensler, A.; Hempelmann, N.; Jones, C.; Keuler, K.; Kovats, S.; Kroner, N.; Kotlarski, S.; Kriegsmann, A.; Martin, E.; Meijgaard, E.; Moseley, C.; Pfeifer, S.; Preuschmann, S.; Radermacher, C.; Radtke, K.; Rechid, D.; Rounsevell, M.; Samuelsson, P.; Somot, S.; Soussana, J.-F.; Teichmann, C.; Valentini, R.; Vautard, R.; Weber, B. & Yiou, P. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Regional Environmental Change, 2013, 1-16    

  11. Kallache M., P. Naveau and M. Vrac. Spatial extreme droughts assessment in the Duero basin (central Spain) with multivariate extreme value statistics. Water Resources Research, 49, 6716-6730, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20490.    

  12. Levavasseur G., M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, J. Guiot (2013): An objective methodology for potential vegetation reconstruction constrained by climate. Global and Planetary Change,, 7–22.    

  13. Mc Vicar, T., R., R. Vautard, J.-N. Thepaut, P. Berrisford, and R. J. H. Dunn, 2013, [Global climate; Atmospheric circulation; Surface winds] Land surface winds [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, in press.    

  14. Menut L., Bessagnet B., Khvorostyanov D., Beekmann M., Blond N., Colette A., Coll I., Curci G., Foret G., Hodzic A., Mailler S., Meleux F., Monge J.L., Pison I., Siour G., Turquety S., Valari M., Vautard R., Vivanco M.G., 2013 : CHIMERE 2013: a model for regional atmospheric composition modelling. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 981-1028.    

  15. Menut, L., O. P. Tripathi, A. Colette, R. Vautard, E. Flaounas, B. Bessagnet, 2012 : Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modeling purposes. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2515-2533.    

  16. Rietsch T., P. Naveau, N. Gilardi, and A. Guillou. Network design for heavy rainfall analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres, 118(23) :13,075–13,086, 2013.    

  17. Rust H., M. Vrac, B. Sultan, M. Lengaigne (2013). Mapping Weather-Type Influence on Senegal Precipitation Based on a Spatial–Temporal Statistical Model*. J. Climate, 26, 8189–8209, doi:     

  18. Sabourin A., P. Naveau, and A-L Fougères. Bayesian model averaging for multivariate extremes. Extremes, pages 1–26, 2013.    

  19. Schmidt G.A., J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou, Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 775-835, 2013    

  20. Solazzo, E., R. Bianconi, G. Pirovano, M. D. Moran, R. Vautard, C. Hogrefe, Appel, K. W., V. Matthias, P. Grossi, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, C. Chemel, J. H. Christensen, R. Forkel, X. Francis, A. Hansen, S. McKeen, U. Nopmoncol, M. Prank, K. Sartelet, A. Segers, J. D. Silver, G. Yarwood, J. Werhahn, J. Zhang, S. T. Rao, and S. Galmarini, 2013: Evaluating the capability of regional air quality models to capture the vertical distribution of pollutants. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 791-818.    

  21. Stegehuis, A., R. Teuling, P. Ciais, R. Vautard and M. Jung, 2013: Future European temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations. Geophys. Res. Letters, in press.    

  22. Stegehuis, A., R. Vautard, P. Ciais, R Teuling, M. Jung, and P. Yiou, 2013: Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations. Climate Dynamics, 41, 455-477.    

  23. Toreti A., P. Naveau, Matteo Zampieri, Anne Schindler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Elena Xoplaki, Henk A. Dijkstra, Silvio Gualdi, and Jürg Luterbacher. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(18) :4887–4892, 2013.    

  24. Toulemonde G., A. Guillou, and P. Naveau. Particle filtering for gumbel distributed daily maxima of methane and nitrous oxide. Environmetrics, 24 :51–62, 2013.    

  25. Vautard, R., A. Gobiet, D. Jacob, M. Belda, A. Colette, M. Déqué, J. Fernández, M. García-Díez, K. Goergen, I. Güttler, T. Halenka, T. Karakostas, E. Katragkou, K. Keuler, S. Kotlarski, S. Mayer, E. van Meijgaard, G. Nikulin, M. Patarčić, J. Scinocca, S. Sobolowski, M. Suklitsch, C. Teichmann, K. Warrach-Sagi, V. Wulfmeyer, P. Yiou, 2012 : The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of 1 regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2555-2575.    

  26. Vautard, R., T. Noël, L. Li, M. Vrac, E. Martin, P. Dandin, and S. Joussaume, 2013 : Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over metropolitan France. Clim. Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1621-8.    

  27. Vautard, R.; Gobiet, A.; Jacob, D.; Belda, M.; Colette, A.; Déqué, M.; Fernandez, J.; Garcia-Diez, M.; Goergen, K.; Guettler, I.; Halenka, T.; Karacostas, T.; Katragkou, E.; Keuler, K.; Kotlarski, S.; Mayer, S.; Meijgaard, E.; Nikulin, G.; Patarcic, M.; Scinocca, J.; Sobolowski, S.; Suklitsch, M.; Teichmann, C.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Wulfmeyer, V. & Yiou, P. The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project Clim. Dyn., 2013, 41, 2555-2575    

  28. Vigaud N., M. Vrac, Y. Caballero (2013): Probabilistic Downscaling of GCM scenarios over southern India. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, issue 5, 1248-1263, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3509.    

  29. Vrac M., P. Vaittinada Ayar and P. Yiou (2013): Trends and variability of seasonal weather regimes. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3700.    

  30. Yiou P. et J. Cattiaux, Contribution of atmospheric circulation to wet north European summer precipitation of 2012 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”], Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 9, 2013    

  31. Yiou P., AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 6, 4745-4774, 2013    

  32. Yiou P., M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut, Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 5157-5182, 2013    

  33. Yiou, P., T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, L. Menut, R. Vautard, and M. Vrac, 2013 : Ensemble reconstruction of the atmospheric column from surface pressure using analogues. Clim. Dyn., 41, 1419-1437.    


  1. Cattiaux J., Yiou P., Vautard R., 2012. Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: a multi-model analysis from CMIP3. Clim. Dyn. 38, 1949-1964.[pdf]

  2. Vrac M., Billard L., Diday E., Chédin A., 2012. Copula analysis of mixture models. Comput. Stat. 27, 427-457

  3. Casado, M., Ortega, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Swingedouw, D., Daux, V., Genty, D., Maignan, F., Solomina, O., Vinther, B., Viovy, N., and Yiou, P.: Impact of precipitation intermittency on NAO-temperature signals in proxy records, Clim. Past Discuss., 8, 4957-4987, doi:10.5194/cpd-8-4957-2012, 2012.

  4. Stegehuis A., Vautard R., Teuling R., Ciais P. Jung M. Yiou, P. Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations, Climate Dynamics, accepted

  5. Colette A., Vautard R., Vrac M., 2012. Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2012GL052258, sous presse. pdf

  6. Cattiaux J., Yiou P., 2012. Contribution of atmospheric circulation to remarkable European temperatures of 2011. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 1054-1057. [Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective, Peterson T.C., Stott P.A., Herring S. (Eds), 1041-1067.]

  7. Vautard R., McVicar T.R., Thépaut J.N., Roderick M.L., 2012. Surface winds - (i) Land surface winds and atmospheric evaporative demand. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 93 [Suppl. State of the climate in 2011, Blunden J., Arndt D.S. (Eds)], S36-S38. [.pdf]

  8. Fernandez-Donado L., Gonzalez-Rouco J.F., Raible C.C., Ammann C.M., Barriopedro D., Garcia-Bustamante E., Jungclaus J.H., Lorenz S.J., Luterbacher J., Phipps S.J., Servonnat J., Swingedouw D., Tett S.F.B., Wagner S., Yiou P., Zorita E., 2012. Temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millenium. Clim. Past Discuss. 8, 4003-4073. [.pdf]

  9. Menut L., Tripathi O.P., Colette A., Vautard R., Flaounas E., Bessagnet B., 2012. Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes. Clim. Dyn., sous presse. [.pdf]

  10. Daux V., Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri I., Yiou P., Chuine I., Garnier E., Le Roy Ladurie E., Mestre O., Tardaguila J., 2012. An open-access database of grape harvest dates for climate research: data description and quality assessment. Clim. Past 8, 1403-1418.[pdf]

  11. Xoplaki, E., R. M. Trigo, R. García-Herrera, D. Barriopedro, F. D’Andrea, E. M. Fischer, L. Gimeno, C. Gouveia, E. Hernandez, F. G. Kuglitsch, A. Mariotti, R. Nieto, J. G. Pinto, D. Pozo-Vázquez, H. Saaroni, A. Toreti, I. F. Trigo, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, P. Yiou, and B. Ziv, 2012: Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Driving Extreme Climate Events in the Mediterranean and its Related Impacts. In: Lionello, P. (ed.) The Climate of the Mediterranean Region. From the past to the future. Elsevier, 349-417.

  12. Yiou, P., J. Servonnat, M. Yoshimori, D. Swingedouw, M. Khodri, and A. Abe-Ouchi (2012), Stability of weather regimes during the last millennium from climate simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08703, doi:10.1029/2012GL051310.

  13. Vautard R., Moran M.D., Solazzo E., Gilliam R.C., Matthias V., Bianconi R., Chemel C., Ferreira J., Geyer B., Hansen A.B., Jericevic A., Prank M., Segers A., Silver J.D., Werhahn J., Wolke R., Rao S.T., Galmarini S., 2012. Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used for the Air quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations. Atmos. Environ. 53, 15-37. pdf

  14. Yiou, P., García de Cortázar-Atauri, I., Chuine, I., Daux, V., Garnier, E., Viovy, N., van Leeuwen, C., Parker, A. K., and Boursiquot, J.-M.: Continental atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Little Ice Age inferred from grape harvest dates, Clim. Past, 8, 577-588, doi:10.5194/cp-8-577-2012

  15. R. Vautard and P. Yiou, Robustness of warming attribution, Nature Climate Change, 2, 26-27, 2012

  16. B. Quesada, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, M. Hirschi, S.I. Seneviratne, European summer temperature predictability from wet – but not from dry – Southern winter/springs, Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1536

  17. Solazzo E., Bianconi R., Vautard R., Appel K.W., Moran M.D., Hogrefe C., Bessagnet B., Brandt J., Christensen J.H., Chemel C., Coll I., Van der Gon H.D., Ferreira J., Forkel R., Francis X.V., Grell G., Grossi P., Hansen A.B., Jericevic A., Kraljevic L., Miranda A.I., Nopmongcol U., Pirovano G., Prank M., Riccio A., Sartelet K.N., Schaap M., Silver J.D., Sokhi R.S., Vira J., Werhahn J., Wolke R., Yarwood G., Zhang J., Rao S.T., Gamarini S., 2012. Model evaluation and ensemble modelling of surface-level ozone in Europe and North America in the context of AQMEII. Atmos. Environ. 53, 60-74. pdf

  18. Gazeaux J., Batista D., Ammann C., Naveau P., Jegat C. and Gao C., Extracting Common Pulse-Like Signals from Multiple Ice Core Time Series, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. In press

  19. Solazzo E., Bianconi R., Pirovano G., Matthias V., Vautard R., Moran M.D., Appel K.W., Bessagnet B., Brandt J., Christensen J.H., Chemel C., Coll I., Ferreira J., Forkel R., Francis X.V., Grell G., Grossi P., Hansen A.B., Miranda A.I., Nopmongcol U., Prank M., Sartelet K.N., Schaap M., Silver J.D., Sokhi R.S., Vira J., Werhahn J., Wolke R., Yarwood G., Zhang J., Rao S.T., Galmarini S., 2012. Operational model evaluation for particulate matter in Europe and North America in the context of AQMEII. Atmos. Environ. 53, 75-92. pdf

  20. Gazeaux J., Bekki S., Naveau P., Keckhut P., Jumelet J., Parades J., David C., 2012. Detection of particle layers in backscatter profiles: application to Antarctic lidar measurements. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 3205-3217.

  21. Sperna Weiland F.C., Tisseuil C., Dürr H.H., Vrac M., Van Beek L.P.H., 2012. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 983-1000. [pdf]

  22. Lavaysse C., Vrac M., Drobinski P., Lengaigne M., Vischel T., 2012. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12, 651-670. pdf

  23. Kinney P.L., Pascal M., Vautard R., Laaidi K., 2012. Winter mortality in a changing climate: will it go down? Bull. Epidemiol. Hebdo., n° 12-13, 5-7.[pdf]

  24. Tisseuil C., Vrac M., Grenouillet G., Wade A.J., Gevrey M., Oberdorff T., Grodwohl J.B., Lek S., 2012. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity. Sci. Total Environ., sous presse. pdf


  1. Alapathy, K., Mathur, R., Pleim, J., Rao, S. T., Ramaswamy, V., Galmarini, S., Schaap, M., Vautard, R., Makar, P., Baklanov, A., Kallos, G. and B. Vogel, New directions: understanding interactions of air quality and climate change at regional scale. Atmos. Environ., in press.

  2. Vautard, R., Moran, M. D., Solazzo, E., Gilliam, R. C., Matthias, V., Bianconi, R., Chemel, C., Ferreira, J., Geyer, B., Hansen, A. B., Jericevic, A., Prank, M., Segers, A., Silver, J. D., Werhahn, J., Wolke, R., Rao, S. T., and S. Galmarini, 2011, Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used for the Air Quality Model Evaluation InternationaI Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations. Atmos. Environ., in press.

  3. Schere, K., J. Flemming, R. Vautard, C. Chemel, A. Colette, C. Hogrefe, B. Bessagnet, F. Meleux, R. Mathur, S. Roselle, R.-M. Hu, R. S. Sokhi, S. T. Rao and S. Galmarini, 2011: Trace gas/aerosol boundary concentrations and their impacts on continental-scale AQMEII modeling domains. Atmosheric Environment, in press.

  4. Peterson, T. C., Vautard, R., McVicar T. R., Thépaut, J.-N., and P. Berrisford, 2011: Surface winds over land, in [“State of Climate 2010”], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press. Lemond, J., Dandin, P., Planton, S., Vautard, R., Pagé, C., Déqué, M., Franchistéguy, L., Geindre, S., Kerdoncuff, M., Li, L., Moisselin, J. M., Noël, T., and Y. M. Tourre, 2011. DRIAS – A step toward french climate services. Adv. in Sci. and Res., 6, 179-186.

  5. P. Yiou, B. D. Malamud, and H. W. Rust, Preface “Extreme Events: Theories, Applications and Perspectives”, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 1–3, 2011 doi:10.5194/npg-18-1-2011

  6. J. Sillmann, M. Croci-Maspoli, M. Kallache, R.W. Katz (2011) Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking, J. Clim., 24, 5899-5913

  7. Bentaleb I., Martin C., Vrac M., Mate B., Mayzaud P., Siret D., De Stephanis R., Guinet C., 2011. Foraging ecology of Mediterranean fin whales in a changing environment elucidated by satellite tracking and baleen plate stable isotopes. Mar. Ecol. Progr. Ser. 438, 285-302.

  8. Daux V., Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri I., Yiou P, Chuine I, Garnier E., Le Roy Ladurie E., Mestre O., Tardaguila J. (2011) An open-database of Grape Harvest Dates for climate research: data description and quality assessment, Clim. Past Discussion.

  9. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, A. Martin, J. Vandenberghe. 'Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling'. Accepted by Climate of the Past.

  10. Schere, K., J. Flemming, R. Vautard, C. Chemel, A. Colette, C. Hogrefe, B. Bessagnet, F. Meleux, R. Mathur, S. Roselle, R.-M. Hu, R. S. Sokhi, S. T. Rao and S. Galmarini, 2011: Trace gas/aerosol boundary concentrations and their impacts on continental-scale AQMEII modeling domains. Atmosheric Environment, in press.

  11. Peterson, T. C., Vautard, R., McVicar T. R., Thépaut, J.-N., and P. Berrisford, 2011: Surface winds over land, in [“State of Climate 2010”], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.

  12.  Lemond, J., Dandin, P., Planton, S., Vautard, R., Pagé, C., Déqué, M., Franchistéguy, L., Geindre, S., Kerdoncuff, M., Li, L., Moisselin, J. M., Noël, T., and Y. M. Tourre, 2011. DRIAS – A step toward french climate services. Adv. in Sci. and Res., 6, 179-186.

  13. Cattiaux J., Yiou P., Vautard R. (2011) Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: A multi-model analysis from CMIP3, Climate Dynamics (accepted)

  14. D. Kim, H.-S. Oh, P. Naveau, Hybrid wavelet denoising procedure of discontinuous surfaces, IET Image Process., 2011, Vol. 5, Iss. 8, pp. 684–692 doi: 10.1049/iet-ipr.2010.0231

  15. Naveau P., Zhengjun Zhang and Bin Zhu, An Extension of Max Autoregressive Models, Statistics and Its Interface, vol. 4, 2, p253-266, 2011.

  16. Ribereau P., Naveau P., Guillou A. note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses, Advances in Water Resources (in press), 2011

  17. Gazeaux J., Flaounas E., Naveau P. and A. Hannart. Inferring change points and nonlinear trends in multivariate time series: Application to West African monsoon onset timings estimation. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 116, D05101, doi:10.1029/2010JD014723, 2011

  18. Carreau J., Vrac M., 2011. Stochastic downscaling of precipitation with neural network conditional mixture models. Water Res. Res. 47, W10502, 10.1029/2010WR010128.

  19. M. Vrac, L. Billard, E. Diday, A. Chédin (2011). "Copula Analysis of Mixture Models". Accepted in Computational Statistics (pdf soon).

  20. P. Willems, M.Vrac (2011). 'Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change'. Journal of Hydrology, 402, 193-205, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.030 (pdf ).

  21. P. Oettli, B. Sultan, C. Baron, M. Vrac (2011). ' Are regional climate models relevant for crop yield prediction in West Africa?'. Environ. Res. Lett., 6 , doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014008 (download the paper ).

  22. M. Kallache, M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P.-A. Michelangeli (2011). 'Non-stationary probabilistic downscaling of extreme precipitation'. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, VOL. 116, D05113, doi:10.1029/2010JD014892 (pdf ).

  23. P. Naveau (2011) Incertitudes, valeurs extrêmes et climatologie, C. Jeandel and R. Mosséry (Eds.) Le Climat à Découvert, CNRS Editions, Paris, pp. 133-136

  24. Yiou P. (2011) Analyse de données climatiques, C. Jeandel and R. Mosséry (Eds.) Le Climat à Découvert, CNRS Editions, Paris, pp. 138-141

  25. P. Yiou, I. García de Cortázar-Atauri, I. Chuine, V. Daux, E. Garnier, N. Viovy, C. van Leeuwen, A.K. Parker, and J.M. Boursiquot (2011) Continental atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Little Ice Age inferred from grape harvest dates, Clim. Past Discussion, doi:10.5194/cpd-7-1-2011

  26. Guiot J., Yiou P. (2011) Méthodes statistiques, fonctions de transfert, C. Jeandel and R. Mosséry (Eds.) Le Climat à Découvert, CNRS Editions, Paris, pp. 133-136

  27. M. Ghil, P. Yiou, S. Hallegatte, B. D. Malamud, P. Naveau, A. Soloviev, P. Friederichs, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Kondrashov, V. Kossobokov, O. Mestre, C. Nicolis, H. R. Rust, P. Shebalin, M. Vrac, A. Witt, and I. Zaliapin, Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 18, 295-350, 2011, doi:10.5194/npg-18-295-2011

  28. Swingedouw D., Terray L., Cassou C., Voldoire A., Salas-Mélia D., Servonnat J., 2011. Natural forcing of climate during the last millenium: fingerprint of solar variability. Low frequency solar forcing and NAO. Clim. Dyn. 36, 1349-1364.



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