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Davide Faranda

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 Publications     Curriculum Vitae       Research Projects 

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 Dynamical Systems Analysis of North Atlantic Circulation  [Matlab   R (by S. Thao)  Python (by Y. Robin)]


I am a CNRS (permanent) Researcher in Complex Systems at the LSCE laboratory of the  University of Paris-Saclay,  and the coordinator (chef d'equipe) of the ESTIMR group. Since September 2017, I am also external fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory, London, United Kingdom and of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique de l'Ecole Normale Superieure in Paris.



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Research Interests

Available here

Extreme Value Theory and Climate Extremes

Classical Extreme value laws have been recently found for orbits of dynamical systems. The theory has been devised for a special class of observables which allow for a link between the concept of extremes and the lack of Poincaré recurrences around a chosen point of the phase space. My contributions in this fields of research are directed towards the understanding of the relation between the recurrences and the extreme events, the nite time behavior of asymptotic laws and the generalizations of theoretical aspects to climate extremes. I am particularly interested in cold and snowy spells, heatwaves and extreme convective events.

Critical Phenomena in Complex Systems: Climate, Finance and Epidemiology

The understanding of the mechanism regulating the transitions between different attracting states in complex systems is a general problem in statistical mechanics. Systems which feature critical phenomena range from spin glasses up to finance, the climate systems and epidemiology. I have been involved in developing rigorous statistical methods for detecting the transition thresholds in datasets and in the modeling of systems at bifurcation points via the so called ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) processes technique.

Turbulent and Geophysical flows

Providing a statistical description of turbulence, by combining theoretical findings with high quality experimental datasets, is helping in understanding several features of turbulent flows as the dissipation anomaly or the existence of singularities in the Navier Stokes equations. I am actually contributing to this research field by developing statistical techniques based on the Extreme Value Theory and the ARMA process analysis which allows for quantify the distance between observations and theoretical models in a rich model-parameter space.



Research Projects

  • ClimarisQ Project: Smartphone Android/IOS Game on climate extremes : ClimarisQ is a scientific mediation project that highlights the complexity of the climate system and the urgency of collective action to limit climate change. It is an app-game where players must make decisions to limit the frequency and impacts of extreme events. I am the Principal Investigator of ClimarisQ
  • ANR T-ERC "BOREAS":  Bridging dynamic and thermOdynamical REsponse of coldspells of Anthropogenic forcing using Statistical mechanics : BOREAS assesses how climate change modify the frequency and intensity of snowstorms affecting European large populated areas in winter time. Anthropogenic emissions are responsible for temperature increase. I am the Principal Investigator of BOREAS
  • H2020 Project “XAIDA" eXtreme events : Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution:   Fifteen European research institutes are joining forces with climate risk practitioners to better assess and predict the influence of climate change on extreme weather using novel artificial intelligence methods. Within XAIDA I am leader on Work Package on Convective Events.
  • H2020-ITN "EDIPI": European weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts : EDIPI (european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts) is an international consortium of universities, research centres and private companies aiming to further our holistic understanding of temperature, precipitation (incl. drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe. I am the French responsible for the project and work-package leader.
  • ANR "SAMPRACE": Sampling Rare Climate Events : SAMPRACE means « Sampling Rare Climate Events ». It is a project funded by the French ANR. The goal of the project is to devise statistical physics and mathematical methods to simulate rare events like heatwaves or cold spells in an efficient way. This web page contains ongoing elements of the project. I am partner of this project.
  • ERA4CS "EUPHEME": Placing Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Variability and Change : EUPHEME has three main objectives: 1) Develop state of the art methods for a range of timescales, and new techniques for evaluating their reliability, 2) Develop a scientific platform which hosts data, supports data processing and provides collaboration space for scientists using complementary methods and data sources. 3) Provide a user-oriented synthesis, disseminate consistent attribution assessments prototype attribution service website wide variety of stakeholders. I am the LSCE responsible of this project and WP3 co-leader.
  • LEFE-MANU-INSU-CNRS "DINCLIC" dynamical Indicators for Climate Change : The goal of DINCLIC is to determine the contributions of dynamics and thermodynamics patterns to rare events in conceptual atmospheric systems via the dynamical indicators (local dimensions, local stability). The applicability to real systems (reanalyses, observations, general circulation models, regional climate models) also will be assessed.

Curriculum Vitae


  • 2020: HDR (Habilitation à diriger les Recherches), Earth Sciences -Sciences de la Terre
    UVSQ, St Quentin en Yvelines, France, November 2020
    Thesis: Physique Statistique des Evenements Extremes Geophysiques. [Thesis PdF, Presentation PdF, Presentation Movie
  • 2013: PhD, Earth Sciences and Applied Mathematics
    Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany Mention: 1.0/1.0 magna cum laude, January 2013
    Thesis: Extreme Value Theory for geophysical flows. [.pdf]  Supervisor: Prof. Valerio Lucarini.
  • 2010: Master of Science, Physics
    Bologna University, Bologna, Italy Mention: 110/110 cum laude, July 2010
    Thesis: Dynamical indicators of Stability in Non-Linear maps of low dimensionality. [.pdf] Supervisor: Prof. Giorgio Turchetti.
  • 2008: Bachelor Degree, Atmospheric Physics and Meteorology
    Bologna University, Bologna, Italy Mention: 110/110 cum laude, July 2008
    Thesis: Characterization of stable and radioactive atmospheric tracers at the GAW M.te Cimone Station [.pdf] Supervisor: Prof. Laura Tositti.


  • 2020-Now: External Fellow @ LMD-ENS, Paris, France
  • 2017-Now: External Fellow @ London Mathematical Laboratory, London, UK.
  • 2015-Now: Researcher (Chargé de Recherce)  in Section 19 (Climate) and 52 (Interdisciplinary Science) @ LSCE-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  • 2014-2015: Research Fellow (CDD) in thermodynamics and dynamics of geophysical flows @LSCE - CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.  Advisor: Dr. Pascal Yiou
  • 2013-2014: Post-doctoral research in Theoretical and Experimental Turbulence @ CNRS URA 2464 / SPEC - CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. Advisor: Dr. Berengere Dubrulle.
  • 2013-2013: Post-doctoral Research In Fluid Dynamics and Dynamical Systems@ University of Hamburg - Klimacampus, Hamburg , Germany. Advisor: Prof. Valerio Lucarini.
  • 2009-2010: Tutor for students in Atmospheric Physics and Meteorology @ Bologna University, Bologna, Italy.


  • 2019 Winner of the EGU Best Blog Posts of 2019 Competition
  • 2018 European Geoscience Union Nonlinear Processes Division Outstanding Early Career Scientists Award.
  • 2014 Distinguished citizen of the year of the town S.Agata Militello (Italy). Prize assigned under the patronage of the Ministry of Home affairs.
  • 2014 Winner of the Outstanding Student Poster (OSP) Awards at the European Geophysical Union general assembly - section Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences. Vienna.
  • 2013 Selected for participating in the 1st Heidelberg Laureate Forum: a one-week event combining scientific, social and outreach activities featuring the winners of the  awards in Mathematics and Computer Science, the Abel Prize, the Fields Medal (including the Nevanlinna Prize), and the ACM Turing Award, September .
  • 2012 Winner of a sponsorship within the HPC-Europa2: Pan-European Research Infrastructure for High Performance Computing which covered a two months visit to LadHyX (Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France) to collaborate with the Dr. P. Manneville and an amount of 50.000 CPU hours to perform simulations on fluid dynamic systems on CINES-GENCI facilities located in Montpellier, France.


  • 2021-Now: Nemo Malhomme (PhD student, co-supervision: Berengere Podvin, Lionel Mathelin, These 80prime CNRS) “Machine Learning techniques for atmospheric convective events
  • 2021-Now: Mireia Ginesta Fernandez (PhD Student, co-supervision: Pascal Yiou, Project EDIPI) “Attribution of explosive extratropical cyclones to climate change”
  • 2021-Now: Robin Noyelle (PhD Student, co-supervision: Pascal Yiou): “Rare Events algorithms for climate sciences”
  • 2021-Now: Andreia Hisi (Postdoctoral Research, co-supervision: Mathieu Vrac): “Automatization techniques for attribution of climate extremes
  • 2020-Now: Vaishnavi Borse (Doctorante, co-encadrement : Soulivanh Thao, Pascal Yiou, M Vrac): “Machine learning methods for climate change”
  • 2021-Now: Lia Rapella (Erasmus Student): "Evaluating the impacts of climate change on renewable energies"
  • 2021: Lucas Fery (étudiant M2- ENS Lyion, co-encadrement : Berengere Dubrulle): “Latent dirichlet Allocation for geophysical flows".
  • 2021: Akim Viennent (étudiant M2- ENS Paris, co-encadrement : Nikki Vercauteren FU Berlin): “Covariant Lyapunov vectors and dimensionality reduction methods for geophysical variables"
  • 2021 : Robin Durand (étudiant M2-ENS, co-encadrement : Mathieu Vrac) : “Correction of atmospheric circulation biases in present and future climate simulations”
  • 2021 : Dongjeon Lee (étudiant L3, Ecole de Beaux Arts de Tours) : “ContacTerre : valoriser les sciences du climat à travers l’art”
  • 2020-2021: Tanguy Jonville (étudiant Polytechnique, co-encadrement : Nathalie de Noblet): “Methodological issues in attributing extreme heat events to afforestation and reforestation”
  • 2020-2021 : Flavio Pons (Chercheur post-doctoral, Chercheur postdoctoral, Projet BOREAS): “Dynamics of cold spells in climate change”
  • 2020 : Soren François (étudiant M2, Projet ClimarisQ): "Generator of extreme climatic events depending on the CO2 concentration”
  • 2020 : Clément Dehondt (Master de l'Ecole Centrale, co-encadrement : Sébastien Fromang): “Extreme energy transfers in tropical cyclones”
  • 2020 : Vincent de Menezes (étudiant M1): "Machine Learning Methods for non-stationary attractors”
  • 2019 : Adnane Hamid (étudiant M2, co-encadrement : V Gautard, S Thao, M Vrac, P Yiou): "Machine Learning Methods for Chaotic Attractors"
  • 2017: Alix Goudyme (M2 co-supervision : B. Dubrulle SPEC-CEA Saclay): "Persistence of specific states of chaotic attractors"


  • 2021,2022: Master class in Dynamical Systems, M2 Geoscience, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris [8h]
  • 2021: Master Class in Statistical tools for climate Risk, M2 ECLAT, Université Paris Saclay, Saclay [5h] 
  • 2021: Master Class in Physics of Climate, CIRED, Master EEET, [3h]
  • 2020: Marser Class in Dynamical Systems ,Master in Mathematics, FU Berlin [2h]
  • 2019: Master Class in Dynamical Systems ,Master in Mathematics, FU Berlin [2h]
  • 2018: Master Class in Physics of Climate, Master Athens, AGROPARISTECH, Paris [3h]


  • Group coordinator (Chef d'Equipe) ESTIMR (~15 members).
  • Elected member of the LSCE laboratory council.
  • EGU Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Scientific Officer.
  • Organiser of the bimestrial inter-laboratory seminars “Climate and Statistical Mechanics”, between the laboratories SPEC & LSCE at CEA Saclay, France.
  • Member of the Editorial board of the Journal Chaos AIP 
  • Member of the bureau of the Groupment de Recherche CNRS:  "Défis Théoriques pour les Sciences du Climat"



North Atlantic Circulation Continuous Time Analyses


Download the daily values of dimension and persistence from 1948 to present*
The figure  displays some analyses performed using the instantaneous dimension d - the higher d, the more  unpredictable is the atmospheric circulation - and the persistence θ - the lower θ the more stable is the atmospheric circulation - of the sea level pressure field (in hPa) extracted from the NCEP Database. Please cite [Faranda et al. 2017 Scientific Reports] for research use. a) Sea-level pressure fields over the North-Atlantic showing the domain of the analysis for the selected day.  b) Distribution of the best 2% analogues per decades and c) per months. d) Scatter plots of dimension d and inverse persistence θ for all the data (ligth gray), the data of the month considered (dark gray) and the day of the analysis (red star).   e) Weather regimes, computed as the days beyond the 0.15 quantiles of the d and θ distributions.

* Last available date depends on the NCEP and GFS updates. A MATLAB package with the codes to perform this analysis is availabe here. Thanks to M Carmen Alvarez Castro for providing the R code, and Yoann Robin for the Python Package.


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