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Davide Faranda

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Continuous Time Analysis of North Atlantic Circulation  

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About me

I am a CNRS (permanent) Researcher in Climate Sciences at the LSCE laboratory of the  University of Paris-Saclay,  and the coordinator (chef d'equipe) of the ESTIMR group. My main expertise is the attribution of weather extreme events to climate change. Since September 2017, I am also external fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory, London, United Kingdom and of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique de l'Ecole Normale Superieure in Paris.


Research Interests

Available here

Attribution of Weather Extremes events to Climate Change

My contributions in this fields of research are directed towards the understanding of the relation between the recurrences of climate extreme events and the processes that modify their dynamics with the climate change. I am particularly interested in cold and snowy spells, heatwaves and extreme convective events.

Critical Phenomena in Climate & Complex Systems

The understanding of the mechanism regulating the transitions between different attracting states in complex systems is a general problem in statistical mechanics. Systems which feature critical phenomena range from spin glasses up to finance, the climate systems and epidemiology. I have been involved in developing rigorous statistical methods for detecting the transition thresholds in datasets and in the modeling of systems at bifurcation points via the so called ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) processes technique.

Dynamical Systems methods for the analysis for Turbulent and Geophysical flows

Providing a statistical description of turbulence, by combining theoretical findings with high quality experimental datasets, is helping in understanding several features of turbulent flows as the dissipation anomaly or the existence of singularities in the Navier Stokes equations. I am actually contributing to this research field by developing statistical techniques based on the Extreme Value Theory and the ARMA process analysis which allows for quantify the distance between observations and theoretical models in a rich model-parameter space.




Research Projects

  • MITI Project UNDERPIN: UNDERPIN aims at bridging experts in statistical physics, statistics, dynamical systems and climate sciences to study persistent, high-impact climate extremes such as heatwaves, cold-spells and slow-moving cyclones. These events may be conceptualized as arising from situations where the large-scale atmospheric flow in the midlatitudes is extremely zonal or blocked and meandering.
  • ClimarisQ Project: Smartphone Android/IOS Game on climate extremes : ClimarisQ is a scientific mediation project that highlights the complexity of the climate system and the urgency of collective action to limit climate change. It is an app-game where players must make decisions to limit the frequency and impacts of extreme events. I am the Principal Investigator of ClimarisQ
  • ANR T-ERC "BOREAS":  Bridging dynamic and thermOdynamical REsponse of coldspells of Anthropogenic forcing using Statistical mechanics : BOREAS assesses how climate change modify the frequency and intensity of snowstorms affecting European large populated areas in winter time. Anthropogenic emissions are responsible for temperature increase. I am the Principal Investigator of BOREAS
  • H2020 Project “XAIDA" eXtreme events : Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution:   Fifteen European research institutes are joining forces with climate risk practitioners to better assess and predict the influence of climate change on extreme weather using novel artificial intelligence methods. Within XAIDA I am leader on Work Package on Convective Events.
  • H2020-ITN "EDIPI": European weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts : EDIPI (european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts) is an international consortium of universities, research centres and private companies aiming to further our holistic understanding of temperature, precipitation (incl. drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe. I am the French responsible for the project and work-package leader.
  • ANR "SAMPRACE": Sampling Rare Climate Events : SAMPRACE means « Sampling Rare Climate Events ». It is a project funded by the French ANR. The goal of the project is to devise statistical physics and mathematical methods to simulate rare events like heatwaves or cold spells in an efficient way. This web page contains ongoing elements of the project. I am partner of this project.
  • ERA4CS "EUPHEME": Placing Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Variability and Change : EUPHEME has three main objectives: 1) Develop state of the art methods for a range of timescales, and new techniques for evaluating their reliability, 2) Develop a scientific platform which hosts data, supports data processing and provides collaboration space for scientists using complementary methods and data sources. 3) Provide a user-oriented synthesis, disseminate consistent attribution assessments prototype attribution service website wide variety of stakeholders. I am the LSCE responsible of this project and WP3 co-leader.
  • LEFE-MANU-INSU-CNRS "DINCLIC" dynamical Indicators for Climate Change : The goal of DINCLIC is to determine the contributions of dynamics and thermodynamics patterns to rare events in conceptual atmospheric systems via the dynamical indicators (local dimensions, local stability). The applicability to real systems (reanalyses, observations, general circulation models, regional climate models) also will be assessed.

Curriculum Vitae


  • 2020: HDR (Habilitation à diriger les Recherches), Earth Sciences -Sciences de la Terre
    UVSQ, St Quentin en Yvelines, France, November 2020
    Thesis: Physique Statistique des Evenements Extremes Geophysiques. [Thesis PdF, Presentation PdF, Presentation Movie
  • 2013: PhD, Earth Sciences and Applied Mathematics
    Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany Mention: 1.0/1.0 magna cum laude, January 2013
    Thesis: Extreme Value Theory for geophysical flows. [.pdf]  Supervisor: Prof. Valerio Lucarini.
  • 2010: Master of Science, Physics
    Bologna University, Bologna, Italy Mention: 110/110 cum laude, July 2010
    Thesis: Dynamical indicators of Stability in Non-Linear maps of low dimensionality. [.pdf] Supervisor: Prof. Giorgio Turchetti.
  • 2008: Bachelor Degree, Atmospheric Physics and Meteorology
    Bologna University, Bologna, Italy Mention: 110/110 cum laude, July 2008
    Thesis: Characterization of stable and radioactive atmospheric tracers at the GAW M.te Cimone Station [.pdf] Supervisor: Prof. Laura Tositti.


  • 2020-Now: External Fellow @ LMD-ENS, Paris, France
  • 2017-Now: External Fellow @ London Mathematical Laboratory, London, UK.
  • 2015-Now: Researcher (Chargé de Recherce)  in Section 19 (Climate) and 52 (Interdisciplinary Science) @ LSCE-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  • 2014-2015: Research Fellow (CDD) in thermodynamics and dynamics of geophysical flows @LSCE - CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.  Advisor: Dr. Pascal Yiou
  • 2013-2014: Post-doctoral research in Theoretical and Experimental Turbulence @ CNRS URA 2464 / SPEC - CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. Advisor: Dr. Berengere Dubrulle.
  • 2013-2013: Post-doctoral Research In Fluid Dynamics and Dynamical Systems@ University of Hamburg - Klimacampus, Hamburg , Germany. Advisor: Prof. Valerio Lucarini.
  • 2009-2010: Tutor for students in Atmospheric Physics and Meteorology @ Bologna University, Bologna, Italy.


  • 2019 Winner of the EGU Best Blog Posts of 2019 Competition
  • 2018 European Geoscience Union Nonlinear Processes Division Outstanding Early Career Scientists Award.
  • 2014 Distinguished citizen of the year of the town S.Agata Militello (Italy). Prize assigned under the patronage of the Ministry of Home affairs.
  • 2014 Winner of the Outstanding Student Poster (OSP) Awards at the European Geophysical Union general assembly - section Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences. Vienna.
  • 2013 Selected for participating in the 1st Heidelberg Laureate Forum: a one-week event combining scientific, social and outreach activities featuring the winners of the  awards in Mathematics and Computer Science, the Abel Prize, the Fields Medal (including the Nevanlinna Prize), and the ACM Turing Award, September .
  • 2012 Winner of a sponsorship within the HPC-Europa2: Pan-European Research Infrastructure for High Performance Computing which covered a two months visit to LadHyX (Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France) to collaborate with the Dr. P. Manneville and an amount of 50.000 CPU hours to perform simulations on fluid dynamic systems on CINES-GENCI facilities located in Montpellier, France.


  • 2022-Now: Pradeebane Vaittinada (Postdoctoral Researcher, co-supervision: Mathieu Vrac, Projet XAIDA) “Attirbution of tropical and Mediterranean cyclones to climate change".
  • 2022-Now: Lucas Fery (PhD student, co-supervision: Berengere Dubrulle, These Numerics CEA) “Sobers simulations of convective atmospheric extreme events".
  • 2022 Vivien Guette (Master Student, co-supervision: Robin Noyelle, Sylvie Charbit) "Dynamcial indicators for the jet dynamics".
  • 2021-Now: Nemo Malhomme (PhD student, co-supervision: Berengere Podvin, Lionel Mathelin, These 80prime CNRS) “Machine Learning techniques for atmospheric convective events".
  • 2021-Now: Mireia Ginesta Fernandez (PhD Student, co-supervision: Pascal Yiou, Project EDIPI) “Attribution of explosive extratropical cyclones to climate change”.
  • 2021-Now: Robin Noyelle (PhD Student, co-supervision: Pascal Yiou): “Rare Events algorithms for climate sciences”.
  • 2021-Now: Andreia Hisi (Postdoctoral Research, co-supervision: Mathieu Vrac): “Automatization techniques for attribution of climate extremes".
  • 2020-Now: Vaishnavi Borse (Research Associate, co-encadrement : Soulivanh Thao, Pascal Yiou, M Vrac): “Machine learning methods for climate change”.
  • 2021-Now: Lia Rapella (Erasmus Student): "Evaluating the impacts of climate change on renewable energies".
  • 2021: Lucas Fery (étudiant M2- ENS Lyion, co-encadrement : Berengere Dubrulle): “Latent dirichlet Allocation for geophysical flows".
  • 2021-2022: Akim Viennent (étudiant M2- ENS Paris, co-encadrement : Nikki Vercauteren FU Berlin): “Covariant Lyapunov vectors and dimensionality reduction methods for geophysical variables".
  • 2021 : Robin Durand (étudiant M2-ENS, co-encadrement : Mathieu Vrac) : “Correction of atmospheric circulation biases in present and future climate simulations”.
  • 2021 : Dongjeon Lee (étudiant L3, Ecole de Beaux Arts de Tours) : “ContacTerre : valoriser les sciences du climat à travers l’art”.
  • 2020-2021: Tanguy Jonville (étudiant Polytechnique, co-encadrement : Nathalie de Noblet): “Methodological issues in attributing extreme heat events to afforestation and reforestation”.
  • 2020-2021 : Flavio Pons (Chercheur post-doctoral, Chercheur postdoctoral, Projet BOREAS): “Dynamics of cold spells in climate change”.
  • 2020 : Soren François (étudiant M2, Projet ClimarisQ): "Generator of extreme climatic events depending on the CO2 concentration”.
  • 2020 : Clément Dehondt (Master de l'Ecole Centrale, co-encadrement : Sébastien Fromang): “Extreme energy transfers in tropical cyclones”.
  • 2020 : Vincent de Menezes (étudiant M1): "Machine Learning Methods for non-stationary attractors”.
  • 2019 : Adnane Hamid (étudiant M2, co-encadrement : V Gautard, S Thao, M Vrac, P Yiou): "Machine Learning Methods for Chaotic Attractors".
  • 2017: Alix Goudyme (M2 co-supervision : B. Dubrulle SPEC-CEA Saclay): "Persistence of specific states of chaotic attractors".
  • 2016: Guillaume Névo (M2 co-supervision : B. Dubrulle SPEC-CEA Saclay): "Early Warning signals in geophysical and financial problems"
  • 2017: David Rodriguez (L3): "Assessing the dynamics of CMIP5 models via Dynamical Systems metrics".


  • 2023: Master class in Dynamical Systems, M2 Geoscience, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris [10h]
  • 2022: Master class in Approaches of dynamical systems to Geophysics, Master in Matematica, Scuola Normale di Pisa, Pisa, Italy [10h]
  • 2022: Master class in Dynamical Systems, M2 Geoscience, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris [8h]
  • 2021: Master class in Dynamical Systems, M2 Geoscience, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris [8h]
  • 2021: Master Class in Statistical tools for climate Risk, M2 ECLAT, Université Paris Saclay, Saclay [5h] 
  • 2021: Master Class in Physics of Climate, CIRED, Master EEET, [3h]
  • 2020: Marser Class in Dynamical Systems ,Master in Mathematics, FU Berlin [2h]
  • 2019: Master Class in Dynamical Systems ,Master in Mathematics, FU Berlin [2h]
  • 2018: Master Class in Physics of Climate, Master Athens, AGROPARISTECH, Paris [3h]


  • Group coordinator (Chef d'Equipe) ESTIMR (~30 members).
  • Elected member of the OVSQ council.
  • EGU Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Scientific Officer.
  • Organiser of the bimestrial inter-laboratory seminars “Climate and Statistical Mechanics”, between the laboratories SPEC & LSCE at CEA Saclay, France.
  • Member of the Editorial board of the Journal Chaos AIP
  • Editor for Physica D
  • Member of the bureau of the Groupment de Recherche CNRS:  "Défis Théoriques pour les Sciences du Climat"



North Atlantic Circulation Continuous Time Analyses and Attribution

Figure: Attribution of the latest European weather availble NCEP circulation pattern: daily average of sea level pressure slp (a), 2-meter temperatures t2m (e), and total precipitation tp (i) on the day of the event. Average of the 33 sea level pressure analogs found for the counterfactual [1948-1977] (b) and factual [1992-2021] (c) periods, along with the corresponding 2-meter temperatures (f,g) and daily precipitation rate (j,k). Δslp (d), Δt2m (h), and Δtp (i) between the factual and counterfactual periods: color-filled areas show significant anomalies from the bootstrap procedure. Violin plots for counterfactual (blue) and factual (orange) periods for analogs Quality Q (m) Predictability index D (n), Persistence index Θ (o), and the distribution of analogs in each month (p). Violin plots for counterfactual (blue) and factual (orange) periods for ENSO (q) and AMO (r). Values for the peak day of the extreme event are marked with a black dot. Horizontal bars in panels (m-r) are the mean (black) and median (red) of the distributions.  Ref: Faranda et al. 2022 Weather and climate Dynamics

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