Attribution of Weather Extremes events to Climate Changre
My contributions in this fields of research are directed towards the understanding of the relation between the recurrences of climate extreme events and the processes that modify their dynamics with the climate change. I am particularly interested in cold and snowy spells, heatwaves and extreme convective events.
Critical Phenomena in Climate & Complex Systems
The understanding of the mechanism regulating the transitions between different attracting states in complex systems is a general problem in statistical mechanics. Systems which feature critical phenomena range from spin glasses up to finance, the climate systems and epidemiology. I have been involved in developing rigorous statistical methods for detecting the transition thresholds in datasets and in the modeling of systems at bifurcation points via the so called ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) processes technique.
Dynamical Systems methods for the analysis for Turbulent and Geophysical flows
Providing a statistical description of turbulence, by combining theoretical findings with high quality experimental datasets, is helping in understanding several features of turbulent flows as the dissipation anomaly or the existence of singularities in the Navier Stokes equations. I am actually contributing to this research field by developing statistical techniques based on the Extreme Value Theory and the ARMA process analysis which allows for quantify the distance between observations and theoretical models in a rich model-parameter space.
MITI Project UNDERPIN: UNDERPIN aims at bridging experts in statistical physics, statistics, dynamical systems and climate sciences to study persistent, high-impact climate extremes such as heatwaves, cold-spells and slow-moving cyclones. These events may be conceptualized as arising from situations where the large-scale atmospheric flow in the midlatitudes is extremely zonal or blocked and meandering.
ClimarisQ Project: Smartphone Android/IOS Game on climate extremes : ClimarisQ is a scientific mediation project that highlights the complexity of the climate system and the urgency of collective action to limit climate change. It is an app-game where players must make decisions to limit the frequency and impacts of extreme events. I am the Principal Investigator of ClimarisQ
H2020-ITN "EDIPI": European weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts : EDIPI (european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts) is an international consortium of universities, research centres and private companies aiming to further our holistic understanding of temperature, precipitation (incl. drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe. I am the French responsible for the project and work-package leader.
ANR "SAMPRACE": Sampling Rare Climate Events : SAMPRACE means « Sampling Rare Climate Events ». It is a project funded by the French ANR. The goal of the project is to devise statistical physics and mathematical methods to simulate rare events like heatwaves or cold spells in an efficient way. This web page contains ongoing elements of the project. I am partner of this project.
ERA4CS "EUPHEME": Placing Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Variability and Change : EUPHEME has three main objectives: 1) Develop state of the art methods for a range of timescales, and new techniques for evaluating their reliability, 2) Develop a scientific platform which hosts data, supports data processing and provides collaboration space for scientists using complementary methods and data sources. 3) Provide a user-oriented synthesis, disseminate consistent attribution assessments prototype attribution service website wide variety of stakeholders. I am the LSCE responsible of this project and WP3 co-leader.
LEFE-MANU-INSU-CNRS "DINCLIC" dynamical Indicators for Climate Change : The goal of DINCLIC is to determine the contributions of dynamics and thermodynamics patterns to rare events in conceptual atmospheric systems via the dynamical indicators (local dimensions, local stability). The applicability to real systems (reanalyses, observations, general circulation models, regional climate models) also will be assessed.
2020: HDR (Habilitation à diriger les Recherches), Earth Sciences -Sciences de la Terre
UVSQ, St Quentin en Yvelines, France, November 2020
Thesis: Physique Statistique des Evenements Extremes Geophysiques. [Thesis PdF, Presentation PdF, Presentation Movie]
2013: PhD, Earth Sciences and Applied Mathematics
Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany Mention: 1.0/1.0 magna cum laude, January 2013
Thesis: Extreme Value Theory for geophysical flows. [.pdf] Supervisor: Prof. Valerio Lucarini.
2010: Master of Science, Physics
Bologna University, Bologna, Italy Mention: 110/110 cum laude, July 2010
Thesis: Dynamical indicators of Stability in Non-Linear maps of low dimensionality. [.pdf] Supervisor: Prof. Giorgio Turchetti.
2008: Bachelor Degree, Atmospheric Physics and Meteorology
Bologna University, Bologna, Italy Mention: 110/110 cum laude, July 2008
Thesis: Characterization of stable and radioactive atmospheric tracers at the GAW M.te Cimone Station [.pdf] Supervisor: Prof. Laura Tositti.
2020-Now: External Fellow @ LMD-ENS, Paris, France
2014 Distinguished citizen of the year of the town S.Agata Militello (Italy). Prize assigned under the patronage of the Ministry of Home affairs.
2014 Winner of the Outstanding Student Poster (OSP) Awards at the European Geophysical Union general assembly - section Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences. Vienna.
2013 Selected for participating in the 1st Heidelberg Laureate Forum: a one-week event combining scientific, social and outreach activities featuring the winners of the awards in Mathematics and Computer Science, the Abel Prize, the Fields Medal (including the Nevanlinna Prize), and the ACM Turing Award, September .
2012 Winner of a sponsorship within the HPC-Europa2: Pan-European Research Infrastructure for High Performance Computing which covered a two months visit to LadHyX (Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France) to collaborate with the Dr. P. Manneville and an amount of 50.000 CPU hours to perform simulations on fluid dynamic systems on CINES-GENCI facilities located in Montpellier, France.
2022-Now: Pradeebane Vaittinada (Postdoctoral Researcher, co-supervision: Mathieu Vrac, Projet XAIDA) “Attirbution of tropical and Mediterranean cyclones to climate change".
2022-Now: Lucas Fery (PhD student, co-supervision: Berengere Dubrulle, These Numerics CEA) “Sobers simaltions of convective atmospheric extreme events".
2022Vivien Guette (Master Student, co-supervision: Robin Noyelle, Sylvie Charbit) "Dynamcial indicators for the jet dynamics".
2021-Now: Nemo Malhomme (PhD student, co-supervision: Berengere Podvin, Lionel Mathelin, These 80prime CNRS) “Machine Learning techniques for atmospheric convective events".
2021-Now: Mireia Ginesta Fernandez (PhD Student, co-supervision: Pascal Yiou, Project EDIPI) “Attribution of explosive extratropical cyclones to climate change”.
2021-Now: Robin Noyelle (PhD Student, co-supervision: Pascal Yiou): “Rare Events algorithms for climate sciences”.
2021-Now: Andreia Hisi (Postdoctoral Research, co-supervision: Mathieu Vrac): “Automatization techniques for attribution of climate extremes".
2020-Now: Vaishnavi Borse (Research Associate, co-encadrement : Soulivanh Thao, Pascal Yiou, M Vrac): “Machine learning methods for climate change”.
2021-Now: Lia Rapella (Erasmus Student): "Evaluating the impacts of climate change on renewable energies".
2021: Lucas Fery (étudiant M2- ENS Lyion, co-encadrement : Berengere Dubrulle): “Latent dirichlet Allocation for geophysical flows".
2021-2022: Akim Viennent (étudiant M2- ENS Paris, co-encadrement : Nikki Vercauteren FU Berlin): “Covariant Lyapunov vectors and dimensionality reduction methods for geophysical variables".
2021 : Robin Durand (étudiant M2-ENS, co-encadrement : Mathieu Vrac) : “Correction of atmospheric circulation biases in present and future climate simulations”.
2021 : Dongjeon Lee (étudiant L3, Ecole de Beaux Arts de Tours) : “ContacTerre : valoriser les sciences du climat à travers l’art”.
2020-2021: Tanguy Jonville (étudiant Polytechnique, co-encadrement : Nathalie de Noblet): “Methodological issues in attributing extreme heat events to afforestation and reforestation”.
2020-2021 : Flavio Pons (Chercheur post-doctoral, Chercheur postdoctoral, Projet BOREAS): “Dynamics of cold spells in climate change”.
2020 : Soren François (étudiant M2, Projet ClimarisQ): "Generator of extreme climatic events depending on the CO2 concentration”.
2020 : Clément Dehondt (Master de l'Ecole Centrale, co-encadrement : Sébastien Fromang): “Extreme energy transfers in tropical cyclones”.
2020 : Vincent de Menezes (étudiant M1): "Machine Learning Methods for non-stationary attractors”.
2019 : Adnane Hamid (étudiant M2, co-encadrement : V Gautard, S Thao, M Vrac, P Yiou): "Machine Learning Methods for Chaotic Attractors".
2017: Alix Goudyme (M2 co-supervision : B. Dubrulle SPEC-CEA Saclay): "Persistence of specific states of chaotic attractors".
2016: Guillaume Névo (M2 co-supervision : B. Dubrulle SPEC-CEA Saclay): "Early Warning signals in geophysical and financial problems"
2017: David Rodriguez (L3): "Assessing the dynamics of CMIP5 models via Dynamical Systems metrics".
2023: Master class in Dynamical Systems, M2 Geoscience, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris [10h]
2022: Master class in Approaches of dynamical systems to Geophysics, Master in Matematica, Scuola Normale di Pisa, Pisa, Italy [10h]