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Dr. Mathieu Vrac

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS)

Centre d'etude de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Bat. 714
91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FRANCE

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Publications (+Thesis & HDR)   Teaching   CV   Academic activities   Links   R packages

Actual position

Main research interests

My main research interests are centered around machine learning and statistical methods and models to analyse, simulate and understand past, present and future climate variability, including extreme events, atmospheric dynamics and multivariate dependences (compound events).

Academic jobs



Academic (co-)supervisions

   PhD students:

Visiting PhD students

   Master students (or study engineers):

  Post-docs :

Academic and associative activities

  Academic responsibilities:


  Scientific projects:


  Organization of scientific events :


  Jurys :


Peer-reviewed Publications


Articles submitted or in revision


Articles in preparation


Articles published, in press or accepted



131. Faranda, D., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Alberti, T., Vrac, M., Pons, F., Yiou, P., Saint Lu, M., Hisi, A.N.S., Brockmann, P., Dafis, S., Vautard, R. (2024) ClimaMeter: Contextualising Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate. Accepted in Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

130. Vrac, M., Allard, D., Mariéthoz, G., Thao, S., Schmutz, L. (2024) Distribution-based pooling for combination and multi-model bias correction of climate simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 735–762,

129. Paquin, S., Albouy, B., Kageyama, M., Vrac, M. & Burke, A. (2024) Anatomically Modern Human dispersals into Europe during MIS 3: climate stability, paleogeography and habitat suitability. In press in Quaternary Science Reviews. In press.

128. Galmarini, S., E. Solazzo, R. Ferrise, A. Kumar Srivastava, M. Ahmed, S. Asseng, A.J. Cannon, F. Dentener, G. De Sanctis, T. Gaiser, Y. Gao, S. Gayler, J.M. Gutierrez, G. Hoogenboom, M. Iturbide, M. Jury, S. Lange, H. Loukos, D. Maraun, M. Moriondo, S. McGinnis, G. Padovan, A. Riccio, D. Ripoche, C. O Stockle, I. Supit, G. Trombi, S. Thao, M. Vrac, T.K.D. Weber, C. Zhao (2024) Assessing the impact on crop modeling of multi- and uni-variate climate model bias adjustments, Agricultural Systems, 15,


127. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Battisti, D.S., Li, C., King, M., Vrac, M., and Tjiputra, J. (2023) A regime view of ENSO flavours through clustering in CMIP6 models. Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003460.

126. Yiou, P., Cadiou, C., Faranda, D., Jézéquel, A., Malhomme, N., Miloshevich, G., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., Robin, Y., Vrac, M. (2023) Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 188.

125. Zapolska, A., Serge, M.A., Mazier, F., Quiquet, A., Renssen, H., Vrac, M., Fyfe, R., Roche, D.M. (2023) More than agriculture: analysing time-cumulative human impact on European land-cover of second half of the Holocene. Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 314, 108227,

124. Faranda, D., Messori, G., Bourdin, S., Vrac, M., Thao, S., Riboldi, J., Fromang, S., Yiou, P. (2023) Correcting biases in tropical cyclone intensities in low-resolution datasets using dynamical systems metrics. Clim Dyn 61, 4393–4409.

123. Zapolska, A., Vrac, M., Quiquet, A., Extier, T., Arthur, F., Renssen, H., François, L., Roche, D.M. (2023) Improving biome and climate modelling for a set of past climate conditions: evaluating bias correction using the CDF-t approach. Accepted in Environmental Research: Climate, 2 025004, DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/accbe2.

122. Ngoungue Langue, C., Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Flamant, C. (2023) Heat waves monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333,

121. Legasa, M. N., Thao, S., Vrac, M., & Manzanas, R. (2023). Assessing three perfect prognosis methods for statistical downscaling of climate change precipitation scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102525.

120. Dembélé, M., Vrac, M.. Ceperley, N., Zwart, S.J., Larsen, J., Dadson, S.J., Mariéthoz, G., Schaefli, B. (2023) Shifting of streamflow timing and seasonality under climate change in the Volta River basin, PIAHS, 2022-545,

119. Bevacqua, E., Jezequel, A., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Lehner, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. and Zscheischler, J. (2023) Advancing our understanding of compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations. Nat Commun 14, 2145 (2023).

118. Faranda, D., Messori, G., Jezequel, A., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2023) Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe. PNAS, 120 (13) e2214525120,

117. François, B. and Vrac, M. (2023) Time of Emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 23, 21–44,


116. Noël, T., Loukos, H., Defrance, D., Vrac, M., Levavasseur, G. (2022) Version 2 - Extending the global high-resolution downscaled projections dataset to include CMIP6 projections at increased resolution coherent with the ERA5-Land reanalysis, Data in Brief, 108669, ISSN 2352-3409,

115. Vrac, M., Thao, S., Yiou, P. (2022) Should multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations account for changes of rank correlation over time? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD036562.

114. Vrac, M., Thao, S., Yiou, P. (2022) Changes in temperature-precipitation correlations over Europe: Are climate models reliable? Clim Dyn.

113. Grisart, A., Casado, M. Gkinis, V., Vinther, B., Naveau, P., Vrac, M., Laepple, T., Minster, B., Prié, F., Stenni, B., Fourré, E., Steen Larsen, H.-C., Jouzel, J., Werner, M., Pol, K., Masson-Delmotte, V., Hoerhold, M., Popp, T., Landais, A. (2022) Sub-millennial climate variability from high resolution water isotopes in the EPICA Dome C ice core. Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301,

112. Bonnet, R., Boucher, O., Vrac, M., Jin, X. (2022) Sensitivity of bias adjustment methods to low-frequency internal climate variability over the reference period: an ideal model study. In press in Environmental Research: Climate.

111. Dembélé, M., Vrac, M., Ceperley, N., Zwart, S.J., Larsen, J., Dadson, S.J., Mariéthoz, G., and Schaefli, B. (2022) Contrasting changes in hydrological processes in the Volta River basin under global warming.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506,

110. Thao, S., Garvik, M., Mariethoz, G., Vrac, M. (2022) Combining Global Climate Models Using Graph Cuts. Clim Dyn.

109. Breton, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Jézéquel, A. (2022) Seasonal circulation regimes in the North Atlantic: towards a new seasonality, International Journal of Climatology, 123.

108. Frémont, P., Gehlen, M., Vrac, M., Leconte, J., Wincker, P., Iudicone, D., Jaillon, O. (2022) Restructuring of genomic biogeography in the surface ocean under climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2022). (see article here).


107. Yiou, P., Faranda, D., Thao, S., Vrac, M. (2021) Projected changes in the atmospheric dynamics of climate extremes in France. In press in Atmosphere.

106. Robin, Y, Vrac, M. (2021) Is time a variable like the others in multivariate statistical downscaling and bias correction? Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273,

105. Ngoungue Langue, C., Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Peyrillé, P., Flament, C. (2021) Seasonal Forecasts of the Saharan Heat Low characteristics: A multi-model assessment. In press in Weather and Climate Dynamics,

104. Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Pons, F.M.E., Hamid, A., Carella, G., Ngoungue Langue, C.G., Thao, S. (2021) Enhancing geophysical flow machine learning performance via scale separation. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 28 (3), pp.423 - 443. ⟨10.5194/npg-28-423-2021⟩. ⟨hal-03341712v3⟩

103. Denvil-Sommer, A., Gehlen, M., and Vrac, M. (2021) Observation System Simulation Experiments in the Atlantic Ocean for enhanced surface ocean pCO2 reconstructions. Accepted in Ocean Science,

102. François, B., Thao, S., Vrac, M. (2021) Adjusting spatial dependence of climate model outputs with Cycle-Consistent Adversarial Networks. Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2021, ⟨10.1007/s00382-021-05869-8⟩. ⟨hal-03317927⟩

101. Noël, T., Loukos, H., Defrance, D., Vrac, M., Levavasseur, G. (2021) High-resolution downscaled CMIP5 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over Europe coherent with ERA5-Land reanalyses for climate change impact assessments, in Data in brief, doi:

100. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Mailhot, A. (2021) Ensemble bias correction of climate simulations: preserving internal variability. Scientific Report 11, 3098.



99. Vrac, M., Thao, S. (2020) R2D2 v2.0: Accounting for temporal dependences in multivariate bias correction via analogue ranks resampling. Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5367–5387,

98. Gehlen, M., Chau, T.T.T, Conchon, A., Denvil-Sommer, A., Chevallier, F., Vrac, M., Mejia, C. (2020) Ocean acidification. In: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 3, Journal of Operational Oceanography, 12:sup1, s88–s91; DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1785097.

97. Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Thao, S. (2020) Changes in future synoptic circulation patterns: consequences for extreme event attribution. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088002.

96. Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M.I., Shepherd, T., Vrac, M. (2020) Brief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science (NHESS), 20, 1765–1782,

95. François, B., Vrac, M., Cannon, A., Robin, Y., Allard, D. (2020) Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: Which benefits for which losses? Earth System Dynamics (ESD), 11, 537–562,

94. Benoit, L., Vrac, M., Mariethoz, G. (2020) Non-stationary stochastic rain type generation: accounting for climate drivers. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2841–2854,

93. Pohl, E., Grenier, C., Vrac, M., Kageyama, M. (2020) Emerging climate signals in the Lena River catchment: a non-parametric statistical approach. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2839,

92. Gaetani, M., Janicot, S., Vrac, M., Famien, A., Sultan, B. (2020) Robust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in West Africa. Sci Rep 10, 7670 (2020).

91. Jézéquel, A., Bevacqua, E., D'Andrea, F., Thao, S., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2020) Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe. Enrivonmental Research Letters, 15 064018,  doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd,




90. Yiou, P., Cattiaux, J., Faranda, D., Kadygrov, N., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Ribes, A., Robin, Y., Thao, S., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Vrac, M. (2019) Analyses of the Northern European summer heatwave of 2018. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society,  101 (1), pp. S35-S40., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0170.1

89. Carella, G., Vrac, M., Brogniez, H., Yiou, P., Chepfer, H. (2019) Statistical downscaling of water vapour satellite measurements from profiles of tropical ice clouds. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1–20,

88. Bartok, B., Tobin, I., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., Jin, X., Levavasseur, G., Denvil, S., Dubus, L., Parey, S., Michelangeli, P.-A., Troccoli, A., Saint-Drenan, Y.-M. (2019) A climate projection dataset tailored for the European energy sector. Climate Services, Volume 16, 100138,

87. Jézéquel, A., Dépoues, V., Guillemot, H., Rajaud, A., Trolliet, M., Vrac, M., Vanderlinden, J.-P., Yiou, P. (2019) Singular extreme events and their attribution to climate change: a climate service-centered analysis. Weather, Climate, and Society, 12(1), 89-101,

86. Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Vousdoukas, M.I., Voukouvalas, E., Vrac, M., Mentaschi, L., Widmann, M. (2019) Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change. Sci Adv 5 (9), eaaw5531, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531

85. Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., van Loon, A., Maraun, D., and Vrac, M. (2019) Increased probability of compound long-duration dry & hot events in Europe during summer (1950-2013). Environ. Res. Lett. 14 (2019) 094006h,

84. Denvil-Sommer, A., Gehlen, M., Vrac, M., and Mejia, C. (2019) FFNN-LSCE: A two-step neural network model for the reconstruction of surface ocean pCO2 over the Global Ocean. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, 2019,

83. Robin, Y., Vrac, M., Naveau, P., Yiou, P. (2019) Multivariate stochastic bias corrections with optimal transport. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 773-786,

82. Galmarini, S., Cannon, A.J., Ceglar, A. Christensen, O.B., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Dentener, F., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Dosio, A., Gutierrez, J.M., Iturbide, M., Loukos, H., Maiorano, A., Maraun, D., Mcginnis, S., Nikulin, G., Riccio, A., Sanchez, E., Solazzo, E., Toreti, A., Vrac, M., Zampieri, M. (in alphabetical order after first author) (2019) Adjusting Climate Model Bias for Agricultural Impact Assessment: how to cut the mustard. Climate Services, 13:65-69. doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2019.01.004.



81. Benoit, L., Vrac, M. and Mariethoz, G. (2018) Dealing with non-stationarity in sub-daily stochastic rainfall models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5919-5933,

80. Balkanski, Y., Menut, L., Garnier, E., Wang, R., Evangeliou, N., Jourdain, S., Eschstruth, C., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2018) Mortality induced by PM2.5 exposure following the 1783 Laki eruption using reconstructed meteorological fileds. Scientific Reports, volume 8, Article number: 15896, DOI:−018−34228−7.

79. Waelbroeck, C., Pichat, S., Böhm, E., Lougheed, B.C., Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Missiaen, L., Vazquez Riveiros, N., Burckel, P., Lippold, J., Arz, H.W., Dokken, T, Thil, F., Dapoigny, A. (2018) Relative timing of precipitation and ocean circulation changes in the western equatorial Atlantic over the last 45 ky. Climate of the Past,

78. Latombe, G., Burke, A., Vrac, M., Levavasseur, G., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M. and Ramstein, G. (2018) Comparison of spatial downscaling methods of general circulation models to study climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum. Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563−2579,−11−2563−2018.

77. Vrac, M. Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) Bias Correction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175-3196, (download the paper).

76. Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Van Loon, A.F., Maraun, D., Vrac, M. (2018) Soil Moisture Drought in Europe: A Compound Event of Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration on Multiple Timescales. J. Hydrometeor., 19, 1255–1271,−D−18−0017.1.

75. Jézéquel, A., Cattiaux, J., Naveau, P., Radanovics, S., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Ribes, A. (2018) Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 054007

74. Adjoua, M.F., Janicot, S. Ochou, A.D., Vrac, M., Defrance, D., Sultan, B., Noël, T. A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using CDF-t method. A contribution to agricultural impact studies. Earth System Dynamics,

73. Hertig, E., Maraun, M., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Vrac, M., Mares, I., Guttierez Lorente, J.M., Wibig, J., Casanueva, A., Soares, P. (2018) Validation of extremes from the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE. Int. J. Climatol. 2018;1–22,

72. Gutierrez, J.M., Maraun, D., Widman, M., Huth, R., Hertig, E., Benestad, R., Roessler, O., Wibig, J., Wilcke, R., Kotlarski, S., San Martin, D., Herrera, S., Bedia, J., Casanueva, A., Manzanas, R., Iturbide, M., Vrac, M., Dubrovsky, Ribalaygua, J., Portoles, J., Raty, O., Raisanen, J., Hingray, B., Raynaud, D., Casado, M.J., Ramos, P., Zerenner, T., Turco, M., Bosshard, T., Stepanek, P., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Keller, D.E., Fischer, A.M., Cardoso, R.M., Soares, P.M.M., Czernecki, B., Page, C. (2018) An intercomparison of a large ensemble of statistical downscaling methods over Europe: Results from the VALUE perfect predictor cross-validation experiment. Int. J. Climatol. 2018;1–36.

71. Yiou, P., Cattiaux, J., Ribes, A., Vautard, R., Vrac, M. (2018) Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns. Complexity, vol. 2018, Article ID 3140915, 8 pages,



70. Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobaek Haff, I., Widmann, M., Vrac, M. (2017) Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Compound Events via Pair-Copula Constructions: Analysis of Floods in Ravenna (Italy). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, 2017,

69. Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Vrac, M., Adjoua, M.F., Sultan, B., Swingedouw, D., Dumas, C., Gemenne, F., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Vanderlinden, J.-P. (2017) Consequences of rapid ice-sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 114 (25), pp. 6533−6538, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1619358114.

68. Burke, A., Kageyama, M., Latombe, G., Fasel, M., Vrac, M., Ramstein, G., James, P. (2017) Risky business: the impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Las Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 164, Pages 217−229, ISSN 0277−3791,

67. Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Otto, F., Vautard, R. and Vrac, M. (2017) A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17−31, doi:10.5194/ascmo−3−17−2017.

66. Volosciuk, C., Maraun, D., Vrac, M. and Widmann, M. (2017) A Combined Statistical Bias Correction and Stochastic Downscaling Method for Precipitation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 1693–1719, doi:10.5194/hess−21−1693−2017



65. Panthou, G., Vrac, M., M., Drobinski, P., Bastin, S., Li, L. (2016) Impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling on hydrometeorological extremes in RCMs in the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX. Climate Dynamics,−016−3374−2

64. Vrac, M., Vaittinada Ayar, P. (2016) Influence of bias correcting predictors on statistical downscaling models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 56, 5–26,−D−16−0079.1

63. Pernin, J., Vrac, M., M., Crevoisier, C., Chédin, A. Mixture model-based air mass classification: A probabilistic view of thermodynamic profiles. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 115–136, www.adv−stat−clim−meteorol−, doi:10.5194/ascmo−2−115−2016

62. Vrac, M., Noël, T., Vautard, R. Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because Occurrences matter. JGR-Atmosphere, 121 (10), 5237–5258, DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024511.

61. Grouillet, B., Ruelland, D., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M. (2016) Sensitivity analysis of runoff modeling to statistical downscaling models in the western  Mediterranean. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 1031-1047, doi: 10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016.



60. Goore Bi, E., Gachon, P., Vrac, M., Monette, F. (2015). Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of Current approaches and Trends. Accepted in Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

59. Troin, M., Vrac, M., Khodri, M., Caya, S., Vallet-Coulomb, C., Piovano, E., Sylvestre, F. (2015). A complete hydro-climate model chain to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variability in subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina), Climate Dynamics, 46: 1783.

58. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Carreau, J., Déqué, M., Gallardo, C. (2015) Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: Present climate evaluations. Clim. Dyn., 46, 1301-1329, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2647-5.

57. A. Bechler, M. Vrac, L. Bel (2015). A spatial hybrid approach for downscaling of extreme precipitation fields. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 4534-4550, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022558

56. A. Bechler, L. Bel, M. Vrac (2015). Conditional simulations of extremal t process for fields of extreme precipitation. Spatial Statistics. Accepted.



55. I. Tobin, R. Vautard , I. Balog , F.-M. Bréon , S. Jerez , P. Ruti , F. Thais , M. Vrac , P. Yiou (2014). Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Accepted by Climatic Change (pdf soon).

54. M. Vrac and P. Friederichs. Multivariate - Inter-variable, spatial and temporal - bias correction. Journal of Climate 28(1):218-237, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00059.1 (preprint, R package ECBC_1.1.tar.gz).

53. J. Eden, M. Widmann, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, (2014). Comparison of GCM- and RCM-simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 119, 11,04011,053, doi:10.1002/2014JD021732.

52. Wong, G., Maraun, D., Vrac, M., Widmann, M., Eden, J., Kent, T. (2014) Stochastic model output statistics for bias correcting and downscaling precipitation including extremes.  J. Climate, 27, 6940–6959,

51. P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut (2014). Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781-1785. Accepted by Climate of the Past.

50. A. Burke, G. Levavasseur, P. James, D. Guiducci, M. Izquierdo, L. Bourgeon, M. Kageyama, G. Ramstein and M. Vrac (2014). Exploring the impact of climate variability on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Human Evolution, Vol. 73, 35-46,



49. M. Kallache, P. Naveau and M. Vrac (2013). Spatial extreme droughts assessment in the Duero basin (central Spain) with multivariate extreme value statistics. Accepted by Water Resources Research.

48. H. Rust, M. Vrac, B. Sultan, M. Lengaigne (2013). Mapping Weather-Type Influence on Senegal Precipitation Based on a Spatial–Temporal Statistical Model*. J. Climate, 26, 8189–8209. doi:

47. E. Bernard, P. Naveau, M. Vrac and O. Mestre (2013). Clustering of maxima: Spatial dependencies among heavy rainfall in France. Accepted by Journal of Climate (pdf soon).

46. M. Vrac, P. Vaittinada Ayar and P. Yiou (2013): Trends and variability of seasonal weather regimes. Int. J. Climatol., 34: 472–480. doi: 10.1002/joc.3700 (pdf soon).

45. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, J. Guiot (2013): An objective methodology for potential vegetation reconstruction constrained by climate. Accepted by Global and Planetary Change (pdf soon).

44. N. Vigaud, M. Vrac, Y. Caballero (2013): Probabilistic Downscaling of GCM scenarios over southern India. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, issue 5, 1248-1263, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3509 (pdf soon).



43. R. Vautard, T. Noël, L. Li, M. Vrac, E. Martin, P. Dandin, J. Cattiaux and S. Joussaume (2012): Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France. Accepted by Clim. Dyn. (pdf soon).

42. P. Yiou, T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, L. Menut, R. Vautard, M. Vrac (2012): Ensemble reconstruction of the atmospheric column from surface pressure using analogues.  Accepted by Clim. Dyn. (pdf soon).

41. A. Colette, C. Granier, Ø. Hodnebrog, H. Jakobs, A. Maurizi, A. Nyiri, S. Rao, M. Amann, B. Bessagnet, A. D'Angiola, M. Gauss, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, F. Meleux, M. Memmesheimer, A. Mieville, L. Rouïl, F. Russo, S. Schucht, D. Simpson, F. Stordal, F. Tampieri, and M. Vrac (2012): Future Air Quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1–18, 2012,, doi:10.5194/acp-12-1-2012 (pdf soon).

40. E. Flaounas, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, S. Bastin, C. Lebeaupin-Brossier, M. Stefanon, M. Borga, J.-C. Calvet (2012): Precipitation and temperature space–time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region: evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1558-y (download the pdf).

39. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard (2012). Statistical modelling of a new global potential vegetation distribution. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 044019 (11pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044019 (download the pdf).

38. M. Vrac, P. Drobinski, A. Merlo, M. Herrmann, C. Lavaysse, L. Li, S. Somot (2012): Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2769-2784,, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012 (see the website or download the pdf).

37. A. Colette, R. Vautard, M. Vrac (2012): Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate forcing (2012). Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 39, L13707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052258 (download the pdf).

36. F. C. Sperna Weiland, C. Tisseuil, H. H. Dürr, M. Vrac, and L. P. H. van Beek (2012). Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 983-1000, doi:10.5194/hess-16-983-2012 (download the pdf).

35. C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, G. Grenouillet, M. Gevrey, T. Oberdorff, A.J. Wade, S. Lek (2012): 'Strengthening the link between hydro-climatic downscaling and species distribution modelling: Climate change impacts on freshwater biodiversity', Science of the Total Environment (STOTEN), 424, 193-201, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.035(download the pdf).

34. Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Drobinski, P., Lengaigne, M., and Vischel, T. (2012): Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 651-670, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-651-2012, 2012 (download the pdf)

33. C. Tisseuil, F. Leprieur, G. Grenouillet, M. Vrac, S. Lek (2012). 'Projected impacts of climate change on spatio-temporal patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity: a deconstructing approach'. Accepted by Global Ecology and Biogeography (pdf soon).



32. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, A. Martin, J. Vandenberghe (2011). 'Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling'. Climate of the Past, 7, 1225-1246, doi:10.5194/cp-7-1225-2011 (download the paper).

31. J. Carreau, M. Vrac (2011). "Stochastic downscaling of precipitation with neural network conditional mixture models". Water Resources Research, 47, W10502, doi:10.1029/2010WR010128 (pdf). See also the "hparetomixt" R package.

30. I. Bentaleb, C. Martin, M. Vrac, B. Mate, P. Mayzaud, R. de Stephanis, C. Guinet (2011). "Foraging ecology of Mediterranean fin whales in a changing environment elucidated by satellite tracking and stable isotopes". Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 438: 285-302, doi: 10.3354/meps09269 (pdf).

29. M. Vrac, L. Billard, E. Diday, A. Chédin (2011). "Copula Analysis of Mixture Models". Accepted in Computational Statistics (pdf soon).

28. M. Ghil, P. Yiou, S. Hallegatte, B. D. Malamud, P. Naveau, A. Soloviev, P. Friederichs, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Kondrashov, V. Kossobokov, O. Mestre, C. Nicolis, H. Rust, P. Shebalin, M. Vrac, A. Witt, and I. Zaliapin (2011). "Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction". Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 295-350, doi:10.5194/npg-18-295-2011 (download the paper)

27. P. Willems, M.Vrac (2011). 'Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change'. Journal of Hydrology, 402, 193-205, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.030 (pdf).

26. P. Oettli, B. Sultan, C. Baron, M. Vrac (2011). ' Are regional climate models relevant for crop yield prediction in West Africa?'. Environ. Res. Lett., 6 , doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014008 (download the paper).

25. M. Kallache, M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P.-A. Michelangeli (2011). 'Non-stationary probabilistic downscaling of extreme precipitation'. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, VOL. 116, D05113, doi:10.1029/2010JD014892 (pdf).



24. H. Rust, M. Vrac, M. Lengaigne, B. Sultan (2010). 'Quantifying differences in circulation patterns based on probabilistic models: IPCC-AR4 multi-model comparison for the North Atlantic'. Journal of Climate, 23, 6573-6589, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 (pdf). See also the associated "gaussDiff" R package.

23. P. Yiou, E. Bard, P. Dandin, B. Legras, P. Naveau, H. Rust, L. Terray, and M. Vrac (in alphabetical order after first author) (2010). 'Statistical issues about solar-climate relations'. Climate of the Past, 6, 565-573, doi:10.5194/cp-6-565-2010 (download the paper).

22. K. Goubanova, V. Echevin, B. Dewitte, F. Codron, K. Takahashi, P. Terray, M. Vrac (2010). 'Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model'. Climate Dynamics, 36 (7-8), 1365-1378, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0824-0 (pdf).

21. D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A. M. Ireson, R. E. Chandler, E. J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H. W. Rust, T. Sauter, M. Themeßl, V. K. C. Venema, K. P. Chun, C. M. Goodess, R. G. Jones, C. Onof, M. Vrac, I. Thiele-Eich (2010). 'Precipitation downscaling uder climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user'. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 48, No. 3, RG3003 (pdf).

20. C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, S. Lek, A.J. Wade (2010). 'Direct statistical downscaling of river flows'. Journal of Hydrology, Volume 385, Issues 1-4, pages 279-291, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.030 (pdf).

19. M. Vrac, P. Yiou (2010). 'Weather regimes designed for local precipitation modelling: Application to the Mediterranean basin'. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, 115, D12103, doi:10.1029/2009JD012871 (pdf). See also the associated "CCMtools" R package.



18. P.-A. Michelangeli, M. Vrac, H. Loukos. 'Probabilistic downscaling approaches: 'Application to wind cumulative distribution functions'. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038401, 2009 (pdf). See also the associated R package CDFt_1.2.tar.gz.

17. V. Jomelli, D. Brunstein, M. Déqué, M. Vrac, D. Grancher. 'Impacts of future climatic change (2000-2100) on the occurrence of debris flows: A case study in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps)'. Climatic Change,doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9616-0, 2009 (pdf soon)

16. G. Toulemonde, A. Guillou, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, F. Chevallier. 'Autoregressive models for maxima and their applications to CH4 and N2O', Environmetrics, 10.1002/env.992, in press, 2009 (preprint).

15. T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, P. Naveau. 'Statistical downscaling of near surface wind field over complex terrain in southern France', Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 103, doi: 10.1007/s00703-008-0330-7, 253-265, 2009 (pdf).



14. A. Bernacchia, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, P. Yiou. 'Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function. Part II: An application to El Nino', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15, 169-177, 2008 (pdf)



13. M. Vrac, P. Marbaix, D. Paillard, P. Naveau. 'Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe', Climate of the Past, 3, 669–682, 2007 (pdf)

12.M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P. Drobinski. 'Modeling pairwise dependencies in precipitation intensities', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 14, 789–797, 2007 (pdf)

11. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe, X.Z. Liang. 'A general method for validating statistical downscaling methods under future climate change', Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030295, 2007 (pdf)

10. M. Vrac and P. Naveau. 'Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: From dry events to heavy rainfalls', Water Resources Research, 43, W07402, doi:10.1029/2006WR005308, 2007 (pdf). See also the associated "NHMixt" R package (to compute statistical mixture between Gamma and GPD).

9. M. Vrac, K. Hayhoe, M. Stein. 'Identification and inter-model comparison of seasonal circulation patterns over North America'. International Journal of Climatology, 27 (5), p. 603-620, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1422, 2007 (pdf)

8. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe. 'Statistical downscaling of precipitation through nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing', Climate Research, 34: 169-184, doi: 10.3354/cr00696, 2007 (pdf)



Nothing this year...



7. M. Vrac, A. Chedin, E. Diday. 'Clustering a Global Field of Atmospheric Profiles by Mixture Decomposition of Copulas'. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Technology, Vol. 22, No. 10, pages 1445-1459, 2005 (pdf)

6. E. Diday, M. Vrac. 'Mixture decomposition of distributions by copulas in the symbolic data analysis framework', Discrete Applied Mathematics, 2005, 147, 27-41 (pdf)



5. P. Naveau, M. Vrac, M. G. Genton, A. Chédin and E. Diday. « Two statistical methods for improving the analysis of large climatic data sets : General skewed Kalman filters and distributions of distributions » Chapter in Vol. 13 of Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics: Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Kluwer Academic Publishers, under the direction of X. Sanchez_Vila, J. Carrera and J. Gomez-Hernandez, 2004 (pdf)

4. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chedin. 'Decomposition de melange de distributions et application a des donnees climatiques', Revue de Statistique Appliquee, 2004, LII (1), 67-96.






3. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. 'Mixture decomposition of copulas and application to climatology'. Chapter in 'Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty', Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002

2. M. Vrac, E. Diday, M. M. Liman, S. Winsberg. 'A top down binary tree method for symbolic class descriptions'. Chapter in 'Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty', Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002 (preprint)

1. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. 'Mélange de lois de lois par copules', Chapter in 'Extraction et Gestion de connaissances', Hermes Sciences, under the direction of P. Briand, 2002


Other Publications


General-public publications


My PhD. thesis

"Analyse et Modelisation de Donnees Probabilistes par Decomposition de Melange de Copules et Application a une Base de Donnees Climatologiques". ("Analysis and Modeling of Probabilistic Data by Mixture Decomposition of Copula Functions and Application to a Climate Database")
Advisors: A. Chedin (LMD/IPSL/CNRS) and E.Diday (U. Dauphine).
Defended on December 6, 2002, at the University Paris-Dauphine.
PhD manuscript here


My "Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches" (HDR - Sciences de l'Environnement, UVSQ)

"Modélisations statistiques à différentes échelles climatiques et environnementales"
Defended on March 30, 2012


R packages


Some links


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