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Mathieu VRAC

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS)

Centre d’Etude de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Bat. 714
91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FRANCE

Tél. : 01.69.08.88.62
Fax : 0169087716
Email :

Publications (+Thesis & HDR) Teaching CV Academic activities Links R packages

Actual position

  • Directeur de Recherches CNRS (Senior Research scientist) at “Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement” (LSCE / IPSL / CNRS )

Main research interests

My main research interests are centered around machine learning and statistical methods and models to analyse, simulate and understand past, present and future climate variability, including extreme events, atmospheric dynamics and multivariate dependences (compound events).

  • Downscaling & Bias correction methods
    • Statistical & Machine learning approaches
    • Multivariate bias correction methods
    • Non-stationary Stochastic Weather Generators
    • Compound events
  • Extreme climate events
    • Detection & Attribution of (dynamical &/or thermodynamical) climate events
    • Dependence & Spatial modeling of extreme climate events
    • Stochastic Weather Generators
  • Spatial/Temporal evolution(s) of large-scale atmospheric circulations
    • Statistical model-based clustering methods
    • Evaluation of large-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs)
    • Projections of future seasonal & atmospheric features under climate change scenarios
  • Impacts on vulnerable regions
    • Impacts of climate change (e.g., on hydrology, agronomical crops, etc.)
    • Mediterranean region / Western (Sahelian) Africa / Europe

Academic jobs

  • From October 2016: Senior Research scientist (“Directeur de Recherche”) CNRS at the ‘Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement’ (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS), France
  • 01/2014 – 12/2020: Head of the ESTIMR (Extremes – Statistics – Impacts – Regionalization) group
  • October 2008 – September 2016: Research scientist (“Chargé de Recherche”) CNRS at the ‘Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement’ (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS), France
  • From September 2006 to September 2008: CNRS Research scientist (on contract) at the ‘Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement’ (LSCE-IPSL/CNRS), France
  • From August 2004 to August 2006: Research Associate at the ‘Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science’ (CISES), The University of Chicago, USA
  • July 2005: Invited visiting post-doc at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
  • From September 2002 to August 2004 : Research and Teaching Assistant (Attache Temporaire a l’Enseignement et a la Recherche – ATER) in Applied Mathematics and Computer Science at the University Paris-Dauphine

Degrees

  • March 2012: Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches (HDR) en Sciences de l’Environnement, UVSQ. Title: “Modélisations statistiques à différentes échelles climatiques et environnementales” (manuscript, in French).
  • December 2002: Ph.D. thesis in Mathematics applied to climate science.
    “Analyse et Modelisation de Donnees Probabilistes par Decomposition de Melange de Copules et Application a une Base de Donnees Climatologiques“.
    Made in collaboration between the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) at the Ecole Polytechnique and the Centre de Recherche de Mathematiques de la Decision (CEREMADE) at the University Paris-Dauphine. Get the manuscript from here.
  • 1999 : DEA (French equivalent of Master degree) in Applied Mathematics at the University Paris-Dauphine.
    DEA report: ‘Classification supervisee et non supervisee de donnees histogrammes a modalites nominales’ (‘Supervised and unsupervised clustering and classification of histogram data with nominal modalities’) under the direction of E. Diday.
  • 1998 : Maitrise (French equivalent of the 1st year of Master degree) in Applied Mathematics (engineering mathematics) at the University of Marne-la-Vallee).
    Maitrise report : ‘Modelisation probabiliste d’experiences dans l’industrie routiere’ (‘Probabilistic modeling of experiences in the road industry’).
  • 1997 : Licence (French equivalent of B.Sc.) in Mathematics at the University of Marne-la-Vallee.
  • 1996 : DEUG (French degree) Sciences MIAS: Mathematics, Computer science, and Applications to Sciences, at the University of Marne-la-Vallee.
  • 1994 : Baccalaureat C (French degree) in Mathematics and physical sciences at Lycee Gerard de Nerval (Noisiel, Seine et Marne)

Teaching

  • From December 2022 : Member of the pedagogical team for the module “Introduction to the statistical analysis of climate risks” & In charge of of the “downscaling and bias correction” course (Master level 2), University Paris-Saclay.
  • March 2017 – June 2022: Course “Statistical Climatology” (Master level 2) at Université Lyon 1.
  • from January 2010 to March 2012: Course of “Statistical climatology” at the Ecole Centrale Marseille:
    • Clustering methods and weather regimes
    • Statistical downscaling and applications
    • Extreme Values Theory and applications
  • 2003-2004 : Teaching and Research Assistant (‘Attache Temporaire a l’Enseignement et a la Recherche’ – ATER) in Applied Mathematics at the University Paris-Dauphine :
    • In charge of the scientific computation module (teaching and organization) for DEUG MASS 1
    • In charge (‘Charge de TD’) of the ‘Statistics exercises’ for DEUG MASS 2, with Christian Robert.
    • In charge of the lessons in amphitheater of ‘Combinatory probabilities’, and exercises (TD) in IUP1 Miage.
    • In charge of the lessons in amphitheater of JAVA computing language in DEUG MASS 1.
    • In charge of the exercises (TD) of a module “Scientific management and Decisional Mathematics” in Maitrise of Science and Management with Daniel Vanderpooten.
  • 2002-2003 :
    • In charge (TD/TP) of theoretical and practical exercises of algorithms in langage JAVA in DEUG MASS 1st year.
    • In charge (TD/TP) of theoretical and practical exercises of JAVA in Licence IUP Genie Mathematiques et Informatique.
  • 2000-2001 : In charge of various exercises of Mathematics and computer science at the University Paris-Dauphine.
  • 1994-1999 : Teacher of mathematics at home.

Academic (co-)supervisions

PhD students:

  • V. Launeau (PhD student, LSCE & Celest Science, Nov. 2024 – present)
  • J. Schmutz (PhD student, June 2024 – present)
  • C. Naldesi (PhD student, co-sup. with N. Bertrand & D. Faranda, Oct. 2023 – present)
  • G. Jacquemin (PhD student, co-sup. with D. Allard, INRAE, and X. Freulon, Mines-ParisTech, Nov. 2022 – present)
  • L. Schmutz (PhD student, UNIL, Switzerland, co-sup. with G. Mariéthoz, D. Allard, S. Thao, Sept. 2022 – present)
  • S. Crossouard (PhD student, co-sup. with M. Kageyama and T. Dubos, LSCE, Jan. 2022 – present)
  • G. Benard (PhD student, co-sup. with M. Ghelen, LSCE, Dec. 2021 – present)
  • B. François (PhD student, LSCE, Oct. 2019 – Sept. 2022)
  • F. Breton (PhD student, LSCE, Jan. 2018 – Sept. 2021)
  • J. Pernin (PhD student, LMD/LSCE, Feb. 2014 – 2018)
  • P. Vaittinada Ayar (PhD student, LSCE, February 2013 – Jan. 2016)
  • A. Bechler (PhD student, LSCE & AgroParisTech, November 2011 – December 2014)
  • G. Levavasseur (PhD student, LSCE, february 2009 – 2012)
  • C. Tisseuil (PhD student, Univ. of Toulouse, january 2007 – december 2009)
  • M. Limam (PhD student, Dauphine, 2002-2004)

Visiting PhD students

  • N. Tacoronte (May – Aug. 2025, supervised by S. Gamiz-Fortis and M.J. Esteban-Parra, Univ. of Granada, Spain)
  • D. Pappert (Jan. – Feb. 2025, supervised by O. Martius, Univ. of Bern, Switzerland)
  • M. Legasa (Sept. – Dec. 2022, supervised by R. Manzanas and J.M. Gutierrez, Univ. of Cantabria, Santander, Spain)
  • D. Faye (Sept. – Dec. 2022, supervised by A. Gaye, Univ. of Dakar, Senegal)

Master students (or study engineers):

  • J. Schmutz (Engineer, Feb. 2023 – June 2024)
  • M. Tahani (Engineer, April 2022 – August 2023, wit M. Gehlen)
  • M. Guichard (M1/Engineering school, Sept. 2022 – Jan. 2023, with Y. Robin)
  • A. Frot (Master 2, April – Sept 2022, with A. Jézéquel, M. Trolliet, T. Calvet)
  • X. Bonnemaizon (Master 2, April – Oct 2022, with A. Jézéquel, M. Trolliet, T. Calvet)
  • R. Durand (Master 2, April – Sept 2021, with D. Faranda)
  • M. Deronzier (Master 2, April – Sept. 2021, with E. Mouche)
  • A. Chassaing (Master 2, April-Aug. 2021, with M. Dumont and L. Oudin)
  • V. Sambath (Ecole Polytechnique, w/ T. Dubos and M. Kageyama, April-Sept 2020)
  • M. Garvik (Master 2, Feb – August 2020, with S. Thao and G. Mariethoz)
  • B. Francois (Master 2, April 2019 – September 2019)
  • C.G. Ngoungue Langue (Master 2, Feb. 2019 – Aug. 2019)
  • M. Garvik (Master 1, April – August 2019)
  • A. Hamid (Master 2, Sept. 2018 – Feb. 2019)
  • B. Francois (Master 1, April 2017- Sept. 2017)
  • S. Lassonde (LSCE, March 2013 – February 2014)
  • F. Blondot (Master 2, StaRMIP, HSM – with J. Carreau-, Feb. 2013 – July 2013)
  • E. Bernard (Master 2, LSCE, April – September 2011)
  • T. Braun, D. Grange, T. Harang, J. Jamaux, R. Lejas, A. Ndiaye (Master students project, Ecole Polytechnique, Sept. 2011 – May 2012)
  • P. Vaittinada Ayar (Master 2, LSCE, May – September 2010)
  • A. Merlo (Master 2, LSCE, April – July 2010)
  • G. Levavasseur (Master 2, LSCE, 2009)
  • M. Azlim (DEA, Dauphine, 2003)
  • F. Hechner (Magistère, LMD, Ecole Polytechnique, 2003)
  • M. Limam (DEA, U. Dauphine, 2002)

Post-docs or Research engineers:

  • M. Legasa (postdoc IPSL/LSCE, Oct. 2024 – Present)
  • Y. Robin (postdoc IPSL/LSCE, Oct. 2024 – Present)
  • A. Gellens (IR, LSCE, Sept. 2024 – Present, co-sup. with C. Agosta, LSCE)
  • P. Vaittinada Ayar (postdoc IPSL/LSCE, Sept. 2022 – Aug. 2025)
  • B. Bulut (postdoc LSCE, Dec. 2021 – Jun. 2023)
  • A. Hisi (postdoc IPSL, Oct. 2021, Nov 2023)
  • Y. Robin (postdoc LSCE, Oct. 2021 – June 2024)
  • A. Mecho (postdoc LSCE, Jan. 2021 – Jul. 2022)
  • S. Chen (post-doc, LSCE, June 2018 – September 2019)
  • G. Carella (post-doc, LSCE, Sept.2017 – present)
  • A. Sommer (post-doc, LSCE, Feb. 2017 – September 2018)
  • G. Panthou (post-doc LSCE/IPSL, September 2014 – September 2015)
  • M. Jouini (IR, LSCE, 2014)
  • T. Noël (Engineer, LSCE/IPSL, 2011-2015)
  • G. Wong (post-doc GEOMAR, Kiel, 2011-2013)
  • M. Kallache (post-doc LSCE/Climpact, 2009-2010)
  • N. Vigaud (post-doc, BRGM, september 2009 – august 2010)
  • A. Martin (post_doc, LSCE, 2009-2010)
  • P. Oettli (post-doc, LOCEAN, 2009-2010)
  • T. Salameh (post-doc, LSCE, september 2008 – june 2010)
  • H. Rust (post-doc, LSCE, june 2008 – november 2009)
  • C. Lavaysse (post-doc, LMD, december 2008 – october 2009)
  • K. Goubanova (post-doc, LOCEAN, february 2008 – december 2008)

Academic and associative activities

Academic responsibilities:

  • Head of the ESTIMR team at LSCE (Jan. 2014 – Dec. 2020)
  • Member of the LSCE’s “Scientific and Technical Council” (CST, Jan. 2020 – June 2023)
  • Member of IFSEM (IdF CNRS Training) expert panel on Statistics (March 2021 – June 2022)
  • Member of the cell “Climate Services” of the IPSL (2015-2022)
  • Member of the “Regional Climate and Environment” group (pôle CER) at IPSL (2015-2018)
  • IPSL Consulting expert for Climpact (2007-2011)
  • Leader of the IPSL reading group about ‘Statistical downscaling’ (2008-2011)
  • Reviewer for the international journals ‘Climate Dynamics’, ‘Climate of the Past’, ‘Climate Research’, ‘Computers and Geosciences’, ‘Data and Knowledge Engineering’, ‘Extremes’, ‘International Journal of Climatology’, ‘Journal of Geophysical Research’, ‘Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology’, ‘Journal of Climate’, ‘Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences’, ‘Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society’, ‘Water Resources Research’, etc.
  • Associate Editor for “International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences” (2014-2017)
  • Member of the Editorial committee of “Un jour, une brève“, the French blog of the international initiative “Mathematics of Planet Earth, 2013“
  • External Reviewer (Relecteur extérieur) for the French national report “Le changement climatique et les réseaux écologiques” (in French) led by the Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle and required by the French ministery of ecology (download here).
  • Reviewer for the Californian Climate Change assessment report 2008
  • Member of the ‘American Statistical Association’ (ASA) and of the ‘European Geophysical Union’ (EGU)

Scientific projects:

  • Coordinator and PI of the EXTENDING project (PC4 – Extreme events under Climate Change) in the “TRACCS” PEPR (2023-2031)
  • Co-coordinator and PI of the LOCALISING project (PC10 – Reaching the local scale in climate studies) in the “TRACCS” PEPR (2023-2031)
  • Scientific Committee member for the Météo-France project “Socle de projections climatiques pour la métropole” (2024-2025)
  • Scientific Committee member for the Météo-France project “Socle de projections climatiques pour l’Outre-Mer” (2024-2025)
  • Member of the “GeoLearning Chair” (2021-2026)
  • Member of the GIS project “Uncertainty Quantification” (2022 – present)
  • Partner (PI) in the “Combine” FNS project (2022-2025)
  • Partner in the “Deep time cube” FNS project (2022-2025)
  • Partner (PI) in the “XAIDA” H2020 project (2021-2025)
  • Partner in the “REGARD” FSOV project (2021-2025)
  • Coordinator of the “COESION” LEFE project (2022-2024)
  • Partner in the “Explore2” project (convention with French Ministry of the ecological transition, 2021-2024)
  • Partner in the “HR-CDFt” Copernicus project (2020-2021)
  • Member of the ERA4CS “EUPHEME” project (2017-2020)
  • Member of the ERA4CS “CoCliServ” project (2017-2020)
  • Member of the IRS-Saclay “SpaceObs” project (2016-2020)
  • Participant in the NeoGen – DRF impulsion project (2017-2019)
  • Participant in the “Convention Services Climatiques” fund by the French Ministry of Environement (Collaboration Météo-France – IPSL, 2017-2020)
  • Member of the ERC “A2C2” project (2014-2019)
  • Member of the H2020 “Atlantos” project (2015-2019)
  • Coordinator of the ANR “StaRMIP” project (2013-2016)
  • Member of the ANR “REMEMBER” (2013-2016).
  • Co-PI of the “CELLO” VW project (2014-2017)
  • WP leader (WP2: Climate scenarios) in the GICC REMedHE project (2012-2015)
  • French member of the Management Commitee and WG co-leader of the European COST Action ES1102 “VALUE”.
  • WP leader in the “McSIM” ANR project (2011-2014)
  • co-PI of the “PLEIADES” VW project (2011-2014)
  • Participant in the GICC DRIAS project (2010-2012)
  • Participant in the PEPER GIS project (2010-2013)
  • Work Package leader (WP1) of the REGYNA project (2008-2010)

Organization of scientific events :

  • Organizer of the workshop on “Bias Correction in Climate Studies“, 26-28 May 2025, Paris, France
  • Co-organizer of the workshop on “large ensemble simulations for compound event research”, 06-08 Oct. 2021, Paris, France
  • Member of the program committee of the “Climate informatics” conference (CI2019, website here), 02-04 October 2019, Paris, France.
  • Member of the organizing committee for the “4th Stochastic Weather Generator conference” (SWGEN 2018, website here), 02-04 October 2018, Boulder, USA.
  • Co-organizer of the 2nd international workshop on “Bias Correction in Climate Studies” (http://www.climate-bias-correction.org/), 14-16 May 2018, Santander, Spain.
  • Co-organizer of the international workshop on “Stochastic Weather Generators for hydrological applications” (archive of the website), 18-20 September 2017, Berlin, Germany.
  • Co-organizer of the international workshop on “Bias Correction in Climate Studies” (http://www.climate-bias-correction.de/), 4-6 October 2016, Berlin, Germany.
  • Co-organizer (and teacher) of the Fall school on “Statistical and Mathematical tools for the study of climate extremes”, Cargèse (Corsica, France), 9-13 November, 2015
  • Co-convener of the “Statistical downscaling” session of the international conference “Water 2010” (Quebec City, 5-7 July 2010)

Jurys :

  • Jury member (“examinateur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Mehdi Mikou on February 14, 2025 (CIRED, Université Paris-Saclay, France)
  • Jury member (“examinateur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Némo Malhomme on December 04, 2024 (Université Paris-Saclay, France)
  • Jury member (“examinateur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Julie André on October 14, 2024 (Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France)
  • Jury member (“rapporteur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Louis Le Toumelin on November 27, 2023 (Univ. of Toulouse, France)
  • Jury member (“examinateur invité”) for the PhD thesis defended by Cédric Ngoungue Langue on October 12, 2023 (Univ. Paris-Saclay, France)
  • Jury member (“rapporteur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Mikel Legasa Rios on July 21, 2023 (Univ. of Santander, Spain)
  • Jury member (“rapporteur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Antoine Doury on December 16, 2022 (Univ. de Toulouse, France)
  • Jury member (“rapporteur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Saïd Obakrim on October 21, 2022 (Univ. de Rennes, France)
  • Jury member (“president”) for the PhD thesis defended by Jorge Baño Medina on Decembre 16, 2021 (U. of Santander, Spain)
  • Jury member (“rapporteur”) for the PhD thesis defended by Benjamin Leroy on February, 12, 2021 (Univ. de Toulouse, France)
  • Jury member (“examinateur”) for the “Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches” (HDR) defended by Sylvie Parey on January, 28, 2021 (EDF-Saclay, Sorbonne Université)
  • Jury member (“rapporteur”) for the “Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches” (HDR) defended by Jean-Philippe Vidal on October, 15, 2019 (IRSTEA, Lyon)
  • Jury member (‘examinateur’) for the PhD thesis defended by Augustin Touron on September, 19, 2019 (Univ. Orsay/EDF, Palaiseau)
  • Jury member (‘examinateur’) for the PhD thesis defended by Victor Mélèse on February, 15, 2019 (IGE, Grenoble)
  • Jury member (“rapporteur”) for the “Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches” (HDR) defended by Théophile Vischel on December, 06, 2018 (IGE, Grenoble)
  • Jury member (‘examinateur’) for the PhD thesis defended by Joseph Bellier on September, 21, 2018 (IGE, Grenoble)
  • Jury member (‘examinateur’) for the PhD thesis defended by Michaël Zamo on December, 15, 2016 (Météo-France, Toulouse)
  • Jury member (‘examinateur’) for the PhD thesis defended by Clément Guilloteau on November, 07, 2016 (LA, Toulouse)
  • 2016-2018: Member of the FCPLR jury at the Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie (ENM, Toulouse)
  • Jury member as reviewer (“rapporteur”) for the PhD thesis defended by S. Radanovics on November, 03, 2014 (IRSTEA, Lyon)
  • Jury member (‘examinateur’) for the PhD thesis defended by J.-C. Espinoza on January, 13, 2009 (LOCEAN, Paris)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Asse Mbengue (Montpellier, ANACIM, 2023-2026)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Philippe Ear (Univ. Côte d’Azur, 2023-2026)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Xavier Bonnemaizon (UPSaclay, 2022-2025)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Occitane Barbaux (UPSaclay, Météo-France, IRSN, 2022-2025)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Némo Malhomme (UPSaclay, 2021-2024)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Cédric Ngoungue Langue (LATMOS and IGE, 2020-2023)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Sylvain Lannuzel (Centrale-Supelec, Cybeletech, 2019-2022)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Guillaume Chagnaud (IGE, Univ. Grenoble, 2019-2022)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Said Obakrim (Univ. Rennes, 2019-2022)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Hugues Delattres (LMD/IRSN/CSTB, 2018-2021)
  • Member of the committee thesis of Sheng CHEN (IRSTEA, Lyon, 2015-2017)
  • Member of the comity thesis of Hamdi Mallat (LSCE, 2010)

Peer-reviewed Publications

Articles submitted or in revision

  • Vrac, M., Loukos, H., Noël, T., Defrance, D. Should we use Quantile-Mapping-based methods in a climate change context?: A “perfect model” experiment. Submitted.

  • Crossouard, S., Thao, S., Dubos, T., Kageyama, M., Vrac, M., Meurdesoif, Y. Contribution of physical latent knowledge to the emulation of an atmospheric physics model: a study based on the LMDZ Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Submitted.

  • Robin, Y. , Vrac, M., Ribes, A., Barbaux, O., Naveau, P. A Bayesian statistical method to estimate the climatology of extreme temperature under multiple scenarios: the ANKIALE package. Submitted.

  • Mbengue, A., Sultan, B., Lguensat, R., Vrac, M., Diongue Niang, A., Ndiaye, O., Thierno Gaye, A. High-Resolution Downscaled CMIP6 Projections dataset of Key Climate Variables for Senegal: Implications for Future Climate Scenarios. Submitted

  • Schmutz, J. Vrac, M., François, B., Bulut, B. Spatial structures of emerging hot & dry compound events over Europe from 1950 to 2023. Submitted.

  • Astagneau, P., Wood, R., Vrac, M., Kotlarski, S., Vaittinada Ayar, P., François, B., Brunner, M. Impact of bias adjustment strategy on ensemble projections of hydrological extremes. Submitted.

  • Noyelle, R., Faranda, F., Robin, Y., Vrac, M. and Yiou, P. Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogues method. Submitted.
  • Pappert, D., Tuel, A., Coumou, D., Vrac, M., and Martius, O., Long vs. Short: Understanding the dynamics of persistent summer hot spells in Europe. Submitted.

  • Allard, D., Vrac, M., François, B., and García de Cortázar-Atauri, I. Assessing multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations on various impact models under climate change. Submitted.

  • Chen, S., Vrac, M., Faranda, D. Event Attribution of Climate Change with a Dynamically-driven Stochastic Weather Generator. In revision.

Articles in preparation

  • Many (of course)

Articles published, in press or accepted

2025

140. Iles, C., Vautard, R., Vrac, M. (2025) No Robust Sign of Human Influence in the Unprecedented Atmospheric Circulation of Summer 2018 over Northern Europe. Accepted in Earth’s Future.

139. Faranda, D., Sato, Y., Dong, C., Gualandi, A., Noyelle, R., Alberti, T., Dubrulle, B., Fery, L., Messori, G., Vrac, M., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Yiou, P., Mengaldo, G. (2025) El Niño and Droughtd in Southeast Asia: A Stochastic-Chaotic Modeling Approach. Accepted in Physical Review E.

138. Bénard, G., Gehlen, M., Vrac, M. (2025) A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: Application to relationships between atmospheric and marine biogeochemical variables. Accepted in Earth System Dynamics.

137. Bourdin, S., Camargo, S., Lee, C.-Y., Lin, J., Vrac, M., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Faranda, D. (2025) Improving Analogues-Based Detection & Attribution Approaches for Hurricanes. Environ. Res. Lett. 20 024042, doi 10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8d, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8d

136. Bulut, B., Vrac, M., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. (2025) What will the European Climate Look Like in the Future? A Climate Analog Analysis Accounting for Dependencies Between Variables. Earth’s Future, 13 (1), e2024EF004972, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004972.

2024

135. Hisi, A., Robin, Y., Faranda, D., Vrac, M. (2024) CDSupdate: A meta-interface for ERA5 download request, management and storage. SoftwareX, 28, 101965, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.softx.2024.101965.

134. Albouy, B., Paquin, S., Riel-Salvatore, J., Kageyama, M, Vrac, M., Burke, A. Evaluating the impact of climate change and millennial variability on the last Neanderthal populations in Europe (Marine Isotopic Stage 3). Quaternary Science Reviews, 2024, 338, pp.108812.
10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108812. hal-04675222.

133. Dong, C., Noyelle, R., Messori, G., Gualandi, A., Ferry, L., Yiou, P., Vrac, M., D’Andrea, F., Camargo, S.J., Coppoloa, E., Balsamo, G., Chen, C., Faranda, D., Mengaldo, G. (2024) Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns. Nat. Geosci. 17, 979–986 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01537-8

132. Nivron, O., Wischik, D., Vrac, M., Shuckburgh, E., and Archibald, A. (2024) A temporal stochastic bias correction using a machine learning attention model. Environmental Data Science. 2024;3:e36. doi:10.1017/eds.2024.42.

131. Faranda, D., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Alberti, T., Vrac, M., Pons, F., Yiou, P., Saint Lu, M., Hisi, A.N.S., Brockmann, P., Dafis, S., Vautard, R. (2024) ClimaMeter: Contextualising Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate. Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024.

130. Vrac, M., Allard, D., Mariéthoz, G., Thao, S., Schmutz, L. (2024) Distribution-based pooling for combination and multi-model bias correction of climate simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 735–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024.

129. Paquin, S., Albouy, B., Kageyama, M., Vrac, M. & Burke, A. (2024) Anatomically Modern Human dispersals into Europe during MIS 3: climate stability, paleogeography and habitat suitability. Quaternary Science Reviews (330), 108596, ISSN 0277-3791, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108596.

128. Galmarini, S., E. Solazzo, R. Ferrise, A. Kumar Srivastava, M. Ahmed, S. Asseng, A.J. Cannon, F. Dentener, G. De Sanctis, T. Gaiser, Y. Gao, S. Gayler, J.M. Gutierrez, G. Hoogenboom, M. Iturbide, M. Jury, S. Lange, H. Loukos, D. Maraun, M. Moriondo, S. McGinnis, G. Padovan, A. Riccio, D. Ripoche, C. O Stockle, I. Supit, G. Trombi, S. Thao, M. Vrac, T.K.D. Weber, C. Zhao (2023) Assessing the impact on crop modeling of multi- and uni-variate climate model bias adjustments, Agricultural Systems, 15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103846.

2023

127. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Battisti, D.S., Li, C., King, M., Vrac, M., and Tjiputra, J. (2023) A regime view of ENSO flavours through clustering in CMIP6 models. Earth’s Future, 11, e2022EF003460. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003460

126. Yiou, P., Cadiou, C., Faranda, D., Jézéquel, A., Malhomme, N., Miloshevich, G., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., Robin, Y., Vrac, M. (2023) Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 188 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5

125. Zapolska, A., Serge, M.A., Mazier, F., Quiquet, A., Renssen, H., Vrac, M., Fyfe, R., Roche, D.M. (2023) More than agriculture: analysing time-cumulative human impact on European land-cover of second half of the Holocene. Quaternary Science Reviews (314), 108227, ISSN 0277-3791, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108227.

124. Faranda, D., Messori, G., Bourdin, S., Vrac, M., Thao, S., Riboldi, J., Fromang, S., Yiou, P. (2023) Correcting biases in tropical cyclone intensities in low-resolution datasets using dynamical systems metrics. Clim Dyn 61, 4393–4409 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06794-8.

123. Zapolska, A., Vrac, M., Quiquet, A., Extier, T., Arthur, F., Renssen, H., François, L., Roche, D.M. (2023) Improving biome and climate modelling for a set of past climate conditions: evaluating bias correction using the CDF-t approach. Environ. Res.: Climate 2 025004 DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/accbe2

122. Ngoungue Langue, C., Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Flamant, C. (2023) Heat waves monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023

121. Legasa, M. N., Thao, S., Vrac, M., & Manzanas, R. (2023). Assessing three perfect prognosis methods for statistical downscaling of climate change precipitation scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102525. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102525

120. Dembélé, M., Vrac, M.. Ceperley, N., Zwart, S.J., Larsen, J., Dadson, S.J., Mariéthoz, G., Schaefli, B. (2023) Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin. Proc. IAHS, 385, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024, 2024.

119. Bevacqua, E., Jezequel, A., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Lehner, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. and Zscheischler, J. (2023) Advancing our understanding of compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations. Nat Commun 14, 2145 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5

118. Faranda, D., Messori, G., Jezequel, A., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2023) Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe. PNAS, 120 (13) e2214525120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120

117. François, B. and Vrac, M. (2023) Time of Emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023

2022

116. Noël, T., Loukos, H., Defrance, D., Vrac, M., Levavasseur, G. (2022) Version 2 – Extending the global high-resolution downscaled projections dataset to include CMIP6 projections at increased resolution coherent with the ERA5-Land reanalysis, Data in Brief, 108669, ISSN 2352-3409, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2022.108669.

115. Vrac, M., Thao, S., Yiou, P. (2022) Should multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations account for changes of rank correlation over time? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD036562. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036562.

114. Vrac, M., Thao, S., Yiou, P. (2022) Changes in temperature-precipitation correlations over Europe: Are climate models reliable? Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06436-5

113. Grisart, A., Casado, M. Gkinis, V., Vinther, B., Naveau, P., Vrac, M., Laepple, T., Minster, B., Prié, F., Stenni, B., Fourré, E., Steen Larsen, H.-C., Jouzel, J., Werner, M., Pol, K., Masson-Delmotte, V., Hoerhold, M., Popp, T., Landais, A. (2022) Sub-millennial climate variability from high resolution water isotopes in the EPICA Dome C ice core. Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022.

112. Bonnet, R., Boucher, O., Vrac, M., Jin, X. (2022) Sensitivity of bias adjustment methods to low-frequency internal climate variability over the reference period: an ideal model study. Environ. Res.: Climate 1 011001 DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6adc

111. Dembélé, M., Vrac, M., Ceperley, N., Zwart, S.J., Larsen, J., Dadson, S.J., Mariéthoz, G., and Schaefli, B. (2022) Contrasting changes in hydrological processes in the Volta River basin under global warming.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022.

110. Thao, S., Garvik, M., Mariethoz, G., Vrac, M. (2022) Combining Global Climate Models Using Graph Cuts. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06213-4.

109. Breton, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Jézéquel, A. (2022) Seasonal circulation regimes in the North Atlantic: towards a new seasonality, International Journal of Climatology, 1– 23. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7565.

108. Frémont, P., Gehlen, M., Vrac, M., Leconte, J., Wincker, P., Iudicone, D., Jaillon, O. (2022) Restructuring of genomic biogeography in the surface ocean under climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01314-8 (see article here).

2021

107. Yiou, P., Faranda, D., Thao, S., Vrac, M. (2021) Projected changes in the atmospheric dynamics of climate extremes in France. Atmosphere, 12(11), 1440; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111440.

106. Robin, Y, Vrac, M. (2021) Is time a variable like the others in multivariate statistical downscaling and bias correction? Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021.

105. Ngoungue Langue, C., Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Peyrillé, P., Flament, C. (2021) Seasonal Forecasts of the Saharan Heat Low characteristics: A multi-model assessment. In press in Weather and Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-19.

104. Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Pons, F.M.E., Hamid, A., Carella, G., Ngoungue Langue, C.G., Thao, S. (2021) Enhancing geophysical flow machine learning performance via scale separation. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 28 (3), pp.423 – 443. ⟨10.5194/npg-28-423-2021⟩. ⟨hal-03341712v3⟩

103. Denvil-Sommer, A., Gehlen, M., and Vrac, M. (2021) Observation System Simulation Experiments in the Atlantic Ocean for enhanced surface ocean pCO2 reconstructions. Accepted in Ocean Science, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-17.

102. François, B., Thao, S., Vrac, M. (2021) Adjusting spatial dependence of climate model outputs with Cycle-Consistent Adversarial Networks. Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2021, ⟨10.1007/s00382-021-05869-8⟩. ⟨hal-03317927⟩

101. Noël, T., Loukos, H., Defrance, D., Vrac, M., Levavasseur, G. (2021) High-resolution downscaled CMIP5 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over Europe coherent with ERA5-Land reanalyses for climate change impact assessments, in Data in brief, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2021.106900.

100. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Mailhot, A. (2021) Ensemble bias correction of climate simulations: preserving internal variability. Scientific Report 11, 3098. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82715-1.

2020

99. Vrac, M., Thao, S. (2020) R2D2 v2.0: Accounting for temporal dependences in multivariate bias correction via analogue ranks resampling. Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5367–5387, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5367-2020.

98. Gehlen, M., Chau, T.T.T, Conchon, A., Denvil-Sommer, A., Chevallier, F., Vrac, M., Mejia, C. (2020) Ocean acidification. In: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 3, Journal of Operational Oceanography, 12:sup1, s88–s91; DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1785097.

97. Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Thao, S. (2020) Changes in future synoptic circulation patterns: consequences for extreme event attribution. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088002. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088002.

96. Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M.I., Shepherd, T., Vrac, M. (2020) Brief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science (NHESS), 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020.

95. François, B., Vrac, M., Cannon, A., Robin, Y., Allard, D. (2020) Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: Which benefits for which losses? Earth System Dynamics (ESD), 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020.

94. Benoit, L., Vrac, M., Mariethoz, G. (2020) Non-stationary stochastic rain type generation: accounting for climate drivers. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2841–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020.

93. Pohl, E., Grenier, C., Vrac, M., Kageyama, M. (2020) Emerging climate signals in the Lena River catchment: a non-parametric statistical approach. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020.

92. Gaetani, M., Janicot, S., Vrac, M., Famien, A., Sultan, B. (2020) Robust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in West Africa. Sci Rep 10, 7670 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63782-2.

91. Jézéquel, A., Bevacqua, E., D’Andrea, F., Thao, S., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2020) Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe. Enrivonmental Research Letters, 15 064018, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd.

.

2019

90. Yiou, P., Cattiaux, J., Faranda, D., Kadygrov, N., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Ribes, A., Robin, Y., Thao, S., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Vrac, M. (2019) Analyses of the Northern European summer heatwave of 2018. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 101 (1), pp. S35-S40. https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0170.1, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0170.1

89. Carella, G., Vrac, M., Brogniez, H., Yiou, P., Chepfer, H. (2019) Statistical downscaling of water vapour satellite measurements from profiles of tropical ice clouds. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020.

88. Bartok, B., Tobin, I., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., Jin, X., Levavasseur, G., Denvil, S., Dubus, L., Parey, S., Michelangeli, P.-A., Troccoli, A., Saint-Drenan, Y.-M. (2019) A climate projection dataset tailored for the European energy sector. Climate Services, Volume 16, 100138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100138.

87. Jézéquel, A., Dépoues, V., Guillemot, H., Rajaud, A., Trolliet, M., Vrac, M., Vanderlinden, J.-P., Yiou, P. (2019) Singular extreme events and their attribution to climate change: a climate service-centered analysis. Weather, Climate, and Society, 12(1), 89-101, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0048.1.

86. Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Vousdoukas, M.I., Voukouvalas, E., Vrac, M., Mentaschi, L., Widmann, M. (2019) Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change. Sci Adv 5 (9), eaaw5531, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531

85. Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., van Loon, A., Maraun, D., and Vrac, M. (2019) Increased probability of compound long-duration dry & hot events in Europe during summer (1950-2013). Environ. Res. Lett. 14 (2019) 094006h, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23bf

84. Denvil-Sommer, A., Gehlen, M., Vrac, M., and Mejia, C. (2019) FFNN-LSCE: A two-step neural network model for the reconstruction of surface ocean pCO2 over the Global Ocean. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019

83. Robin, Y., Vrac, M., Naveau, P., Yiou, P. (2019) Multivariate stochastic bias corrections with optimal transport. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 773-786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019.

82. Galmarini, S., Cannon, A.J., Ceglar, A. Christensen, O.B., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Dentener, F., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Dosio, A., Gutierrez, J.M., Iturbide, M., Loukos, H., Maiorano, A., Maraun, D., Mcginnis, S., Nikulin, G., Riccio, A., Sanchez, E., Solazzo, E., Toreti, A., Vrac, M., Zampieri, M. (in alphabetical order after first author) (2019) Adjusting Climate Model Bias for Agricultural Impact Assessment: how to cut the mustard. Climate Services, 13:65-69. doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2019.01.004.

2018

81. Benoit, L., Vrac, M. and Mariethoz, G. (2018) Dealing with non-stationarity in sub-daily stochastic rainfall models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5919-5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018.

80. Balkanski, Y., Menut, L., Garnier, E., Wang, R., Evangeliou, N., Jourdain, S., Eschstruth, C., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2018) Mortality induced by PM2.5 exposure following the 1783 Laki eruption using reconstructed meteorological fileds. Scientific Reports, volume 8, Article number: 15896, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598−018−34228−7.

79. Waelbroeck, C., Pichat, S., Böhm, E., Lougheed, B.C., Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Missiaen, L., Vazquez Riveiros, N., Burckel, P., Lippold, J., Arz, H.W., Dokken, T, Thil, F., Dapoigny, A. (2018) Relative timing of precipitation and ocean circulation changes in the western equatorial Atlantic over the last 45 ky. Climate of the Past, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-22.

78. Latombe, G., Burke, A., Vrac, M., Levavasseur, G., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M. and Ramstein, G. (2018) Comparison of spatial downscaling methods of general circulation models to study climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum. Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563−2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd−11−2563−2018.

77. Vrac, M. Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) Bias Correction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175-3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018 (download the paper).

76. Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Van Loon, A.F., Maraun, D., Vrac, M. (2018) Soil Moisture Drought in Europe: A Compound Event of Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration on Multiple Timescales. J. Hydrometeor., 19, 1255–1271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM−D−18−0017.1.

75. Jézéquel, A., Cattiaux, J., Naveau, P., Radanovics, S., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Ribes, A. (2018) Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 054007 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab5da

74. Adjoua, M.F., Janicot, S. Ochou, A.D., Vrac, M., Defrance, D., Sultan, B., Noël, T. A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using CDF-t method. A contribution to agricultural impact studies. Earth System Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-111.

73. Hertig, E., Maraun, M., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Vrac, M., Mares, I., Guttierez Lorente, J.M., Wibig, J., Casanueva, A., Soares, P. (2018) Validation of extremes from the Perfect-Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE. Int. J. Climatol. 2018;1–22, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5469.

72. Gutierrez, J.M., Maraun, D., Widman, M., Huth, R., Hertig, E., Benestad, R., Roessler, O., Wibig, J., Wilcke, R., Kotlarski, S., San Martin, D., Herrera, S., Bedia, J., Casanueva, A., Manzanas, R., Iturbide, M., Vrac, M., Dubrovsky, Ribalaygua, J., Portoles, J., Raty, O., Raisanen, J., Hingray, B., Raynaud, D., Casado, M.J., Ramos, P., Zerenner, T., Turco, M., Bosshard, T., Stepanek, P., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Keller, D.E., Fischer, A.M., Cardoso, R.M., Soares, P.M.M., Czernecki, B., Page, C. (2018) An intercomparison of a large ensemble of statistical downscaling methods over Europe: Results from the VALUE perfect predictor cross-validation experiment. Int. J. Climatol. 2018;1–36. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5462

71. Yiou, P., Cattiaux, J., Ribes, A., Vautard, R., Vrac, M. (2018) Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns. Complexity, vol. 2018, Article ID 3140915, 8 pages, https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915.

2017

70. Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobaek Haff, I., Widmann, M., Vrac, M. (2017) Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Compound Events via Pair-Copula Constructions: Analysis of Floods in Ravenna (Italy). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, 2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017

69. Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Vrac, M., Adjoua, M.F., Sultan, B., Swingedouw, D., Dumas, C., Gemenne, F., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Vanderlinden, J.-P. (2017) Consequences of rapid ice-sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 114 (25), pp. 6533−6538, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1619358114.

68. Burke, A., Kageyama, M., Latombe, G., Fasel, M., Vrac, M., Ramstein, G., James, P. (2017) Risky business: the impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Las Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 164, Pages 217−229, ISSN 0277−3791,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.04.001.

67. Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Otto, F., Vautard, R. and Vrac, M. (2017) A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17−31, doi:10.5194/ascmo−3−17−2017.

66. Volosciuk, C., Maraun, D., Vrac, M. and Widmann, M. (2017) A Combined Statistical Bias Correction and Stochastic Downscaling Method for Precipitation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 1693–1719, doi:10.5194/hess−21−1693−2017

2016

65. Panthou, G., Vrac, M., M., Drobinski, P., Bastin, S., Li, L. (2016) Impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling on hydrometeorological extremes in RCMs in the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382−016−3374−2

64. Vrac, M., Vaittinada Ayar, P. (2016) Influence of bias correcting predictors on statistical downscaling models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 56, 5–26, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC−D−16−0079.1

63. Pernin, J., Vrac, M., M., Crevoisier, C., Chédin, A. Mixture model-based air mass classification: A probabilistic view of thermodynamic profiles. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 115–136, www.adv−stat−clim−meteorol−oceanogr.net/2/115/2016/, doi:10.5194/ascmo−2−115−2016

62. Vrac, M., Noël, T., Vautard, R. Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because Occurrences matter. JGR-Atmosphere, 121 (10), 5237–5258, DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024511.

61. Grouillet, B., Ruelland, D., Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M. (2016) Sensitivity analysis of runoff modeling to statistical downscaling models in the western Mediterranean. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 1031-1047, doi: 10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016.

2015

60. Goore Bi, E., Gachon, P., Vrac, M., Monette, F. (2015). Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of Current approaches and Trends. Accepted in Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

59. Troin, M., Vrac, M., Khodri, M., Caya, S., Vallet-Coulomb, C., Piovano, E., Sylvestre, F. (2015). A complete hydro-climate model chain to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variability in subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina), Climate Dynamics, 46: 1783. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0.

58. Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Carreau, J., Déqué, M., Gallardo, C. (2015) Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: Present climate evaluations. Clim. Dyn., 46, 1301-1329, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2647-5.

57. A. Bechler, M. Vrac, L. Bel (2015). A spatial hybrid approach for downscaling of extreme precipitation fields. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 4534-4550, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022558

56. A. Bechler, L. Bel, M. Vrac (2015). Conditional simulations of extremal t process for fields of extreme precipitation. Spatial Statistics. Accepted.

2014

55. I. Tobin, R. Vautard , I. Balog , F.-M. Bréon , S. Jerez , P. Ruti , F. Thais , M. Vrac , P. Yiou (2014). Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Accepted by Climatic Change (pdf soon).

54. M. Vrac and P. Friederichs. Multivariate – Inter-variable, spatial and temporal – bias correction. Journal of Climate 28(1):218-237, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00059.1 (preprint, R package ECBC_1.1.tar.gz).

53. J. Eden, M. Widmann, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, (2014). Comparison of GCM- and RCM-simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 119, 11,040–11,053, doi:10.1002/2014JD021732.

52. Wong, G., Maraun, D., Vrac, M., Widmann, M., Eden, J., Kent, T. (2014) Stochastic model output statistics for bias correcting and downscaling precipitation including extremes. J. Climate, 27, 6940–6959, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00604.1

51. P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut (2014). Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781-1785. Accepted by Climate of the Past.

50. A. Burke, G. Levavasseur, P. James, D. Guiducci, M. Izquierdo, L. Bourgeon, M. Kageyama, G. Ramstein and M. Vrac (2014). Exploring the impact of climate variability on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Human Evolution, Vol. 73, 35-46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhevol.2014.06.003

2013

49. M. Kallache, P. Naveau and M. Vrac (2013). Spatial extreme droughts assessment in the Duero basin (central Spain) with multivariate extreme value statistics. Accepted by Water Resources Research.

48. H. Rust, M. Vrac, B. Sultan, M. Lengaigne (2013). Mapping Weather-Type Influence on Senegal Precipitation Based on a Spatial–Temporal Statistical Model*. J. Climate, 26, 8189–8209. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00302.1.

47. E. Bernard, P. Naveau, M. Vrac and O. Mestre (2013). Clustering of maxima: Spatial dependencies among heavy rainfall in France. Accepted by Journal of Climate (pdf soon).

46. M. Vrac, P. Vaittinada Ayar and P. Yiou (2013): Trends and variability of seasonal weather regimes. Int. J. Climatol., 34: 472–480. doi: 10.1002/joc.3700 (pdf soon).

45. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, J. Guiot (2013): An objective methodology for potential vegetation reconstruction constrained by climate. Accepted by Global and Planetary Change (pdf soon).

44. N. Vigaud, M. Vrac, Y. Caballero (2013): Probabilistic Downscaling of GCM scenarios over southern India. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, issue 5, 1248-1263, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3509 (pdf soon).

2012

43. R. Vautard, T. Noël, L. Li, M. Vrac, E. Martin, P. Dandin, J. Cattiaux and S. Joussaume (2012): Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France. Accepted by Clim. Dyn. (pdf soon).

42. P. Yiou, T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, L. Menut, R. Vautard, M. Vrac (2012): Ensemble reconstruction of the atmospheric column from surface pressure using analogues. Accepted by Clim. Dyn. (pdf soon).

41. A. Colette, C. Granier, Ø. Hodnebrog, H. Jakobs, A. Maurizi, A. Nyiri, S. Rao, M. Amann, B. Bessagnet, A. D’Angiola, M. Gauss, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, F. Meleux, M. Memmesheimer, A. Mieville, L. Rouïl, F. Russo, S. Schucht, D. Simpson, F. Stordal, F. Tampieri, and M. Vrac (2012): Future Air Quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1–18, 2012, www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/1/2012/, doi:10.5194/acp-12-1-2012 (pdf soon).

40. E. Flaounas, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, S. Bastin, C. Lebeaupin-Brossier, M. Stefanon, M. Borga, J.-C. Calvet (2012): Precipitation and temperature space–time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region: evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1558-y (download the pdf).

39. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard (2012). Statistical modelling of a new global potential vegetation distribution. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 044019 (11pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044019 (download the pdf).

38. M. Vrac, P. Drobinski, A. Merlo, M. Herrmann, C. Lavaysse, L. Li, S. Somot (2012): Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2769-2784, www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2769/2012/, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012 (see the website or download the pdf).

37. A. Colette, R. Vautard, M. Vrac (2012): Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate forcing (2012). Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 39, L13707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052258 (download the pdf).

36. F. C. Sperna Weiland, C. Tisseuil, H. H. Dürr, M. Vrac, and L. P. H. van Beek (2012). Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 983-1000, doi:10.5194/hess-16-983-2012 (download the pdf).

35. C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, G. Grenouillet, M. Gevrey, T. Oberdorff, A.J. Wade, S. Lek (2012): ‘Strengthening the link between hydro-climatic downscaling and species distribution modelling: Climate change impacts on freshwater biodiversity’, Science of the Total Environment (STOTEN), 424, 193-201, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.035(download the pdf).

34. Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Drobinski, P., Lengaigne, M., and Vischel, T. (2012): Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 651-670, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-651-2012, 2012 (download the pdf)

33. C. Tisseuil, F. Leprieur, G. Grenouillet, M. Vrac, S. Lek (2012). ‘Projected impacts of climate change on spatio-temporal patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity: a deconstructing approach’. Accepted by Global Ecology and Biogeography (pdf soon).

2011

32. G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. Roche, D. Paillard, A. Martin, J. Vandenberghe (2011). ‘Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling’. Climate of the Past, 7, 1225-1246, doi:10.5194/cp-7-1225-2011 (download the paper).

31. J. Carreau, M. Vrac (2011). “Stochastic downscaling of precipitation with neural network conditional mixture models”. Water Resources Research, 47, W10502, doi:10.1029/2010WR010128 (pdf). See also the “hparetomixt” R package.

30. I. Bentaleb, C. Martin, M. Vrac, B. Mate, P. Mayzaud, R. de Stephanis, C. Guinet (2011). “Foraging ecology of Mediterranean fin whales in a changing environment elucidated by satellite tracking and stable isotopes”. Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 438: 285-302, doi: 10.3354/meps09269 (pdf).

29. M. Vrac, L. Billard, E. Diday, A. Chédin (2011). “Copula Analysis of Mixture Models”. Accepted in Computational Statistics (pdf soon).

28. M. Ghil, P. Yiou, S. Hallegatte, B. D. Malamud, P. Naveau, A. Soloviev, P. Friederichs, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Kondrashov, V. Kossobokov, O. Mestre, C. Nicolis, H. Rust, P. Shebalin, M. Vrac, A. Witt, and I. Zaliapin (2011). “Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction”. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 295-350, doi:10.5194/npg-18-295-2011 (download the paper)

27. P. Willems, M.Vrac (2011). ‘Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change’. Journal of Hydrology, 402, 193-205, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.030 (pdf).

26. P. Oettli, B. Sultan, C. Baron, M. Vrac (2011). ‘ Are regional climate models relevant for crop yield prediction in West Africa?’. Environ. Res. Lett., 6 , doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014008 (download the paper).

25. M. Kallache, M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P.-A. Michelangeli (2011). ‘Non-stationary probabilistic downscaling of extreme precipitation’. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmospheres, VOL. 116, D05113, doi:10.1029/2010JD014892 (pdf).

2010

24. H. Rust, M. Vrac, M. Lengaigne, B. Sultan (2010). ‘Quantifying differences in circulation patterns based on probabilistic models: IPCC-AR4 multi-model comparison for the North Atlantic’. Journal of Climate, 23, 6573-6589, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3432.1 (pdf). See also the associated “gaussDiff” R package.

23. P. Yiou, E. Bard, P. Dandin, B. Legras, P. Naveau, H. Rust, L. Terray, and M. Vrac (in alphabetical order after first author) (2010). ‘Statistical issues about solar-climate relations’. Climate of the Past, 6, 565-573, doi:10.5194/cp-6-565-2010 (download the paper).

22. K. Goubanova, V. Echevin, B. Dewitte, F. Codron, K. Takahashi, P. Terray, M. Vrac (2010). ‘Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model’. Climate Dynamics, 36 (7-8), 1365-1378, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0824-0 (pdf).

21. D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A. M. Ireson, R. E. Chandler, E. J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H. W. Rust, T. Sauter, M. Themeßl, V. K. C. Venema, K. P. Chun, C. M. Goodess, R. G. Jones, C. Onof, M. Vrac, I. Thiele-Eich (2010). ‘Precipitation downscaling uder climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user’. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 48, No. 3, RG3003 (pdf).

20. C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, S. Lek, A.J. Wade (2010). ‘Direct statistical downscaling of river flows’. Journal of Hydrology, Volume 385, Issues 1-4, pages 279-291, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.030 (pdf).

19. M. Vrac, P. Yiou (2010). ‘Weather regimes designed for local precipitation modelling: Application to the Mediterranean basin’. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmospheres, 115, D12103, doi:10.1029/2009JD012871 (pdf). See also the associated “CCMtools” R package.

2009

18. P.-A. Michelangeli, M. Vrac, H. Loukos. ‘Probabilistic downscaling approaches: ‘Application to wind cumulative distribution functions’. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038401, 2009 (pdf). See also the associated R package CDFt_1.2.tar.gz.

17. V. Jomelli, D. Brunstein, M. Déqué, M. Vrac, D. Grancher. ‘Impacts of future climatic change (2000-2100) on the occurrence of debris flows: A case study in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps)’. Climatic Change,doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9616-0, 2009 (pdf soon)

16. G. Toulemonde, A. Guillou, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, F. Chevallier. ‘Autoregressive models for maxima and their applications to CH4 and N2O’, Environmetrics, 10.1002/env.992, in press, 2009 (preprint).

15. T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, P. Naveau. ‘Statistical downscaling of near surface wind field over complex terrain in southern France’, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 103, doi: 10.1007/s00703-008-0330-7, 253-265, 2009 (pdf).

2008

14. A. Bernacchia, P. Naveau, M. Vrac, P. Yiou. ‘Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function. Part II: An application to El Nino’, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15, 169-177, 2008 (pdf)

2007

13. M. Vrac, P. Marbaix, D. Paillard, P. Naveau. ‘Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe’, Climate of the Past, 3, 669–682, 2007 (pdf)

12.M. Vrac, P. Naveau, P. Drobinski. ‘Modeling pairwise dependencies in precipitation intensities’, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 14, 789–797, 2007 (pdf)

11. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe, X.Z. Liang. ‘A general method for validating statistical downscaling methods under future climate change’, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030295, 2007 (pdf)

10. M. Vrac and P. Naveau. ‘Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: From dry events to heavy rainfalls’, Water Resources Research, 43, W07402, doi:10.1029/2006WR005308, 2007 (pdf). See also the associated “NHMixt” R package (to compute statistical mixture between Gamma and GPD).

9. M. Vrac, K. Hayhoe, M. Stein. ‘Identification and inter-model comparison of seasonal circulation patterns over North America’. International Journal of Climatology, 27 (5), p. 603-620, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1422, 2007 (pdf)

8. M. Vrac, M. Stein, K. Hayhoe. ‘Statistical downscaling of precipitation through nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing’, Climate Research, 34: 169-184, doi: 10.3354/cr00696, 2007 (pdf)

2006

Nothing this year…

2005

7. M. Vrac, A. Chedin, E. Diday. ‘Clustering a Global Field of Atmospheric Profiles by Mixture Decomposition of Copulas’. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Technology, Vol. 22, No. 10, pages 1445-1459, 2005 (pdf)

6. E. Diday, M. Vrac. ‘Mixture decomposition of distributions by copulas in the symbolic data analysis framework’, Discrete Applied Mathematics, 2005, 147, 27-41 (pdf)

2004

5. P. Naveau, M. Vrac, M. G. Genton, A. Chédin and E. Diday. « Two statistical methods for improving the analysis of large climatic data sets : General skewed Kalman filters and distributions of distributions » Chapter in Vol. 13 of Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics: Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Kluwer Academic Publishers, under the direction of X. Sanchez_Vila, J. Carrera and J. Gomez-Hernandez, 2004 (pdf)

4. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chedin. ‘Decomposition de melange de distributions et application a des donnees climatiques’, Revue de Statistique Appliquee, 2004, LII (1), 67-96.

2003

Nothing…

2002

3. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. ‘Mixture decomposition of copulas and application to climatology’. Chapter in ‘Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty’, Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002

2. M. Vrac, E. Diday, M. M. Liman, S. Winsberg. ‘A top down binary tree method for symbolic class descriptions’. Chapter in ‘Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty’, Elsevier Science B.V., under the direction of B. Bouchon-Meunier, L. Foulloy and R. Yager, 2002 (preprint)

1. M. Vrac, E. Diday, A. Chédin. ‘Mélange de lois de lois par copules’, Chapter in ‘Extraction et Gestion de connaissances’, Hermes Sciences, under the direction of P. Briand, 2002

Other Publications

General-public publications

My PhD. thesis

“Analyse et Modelisation de Donnees Probabilistes par Decomposition de Melange de Copules et Application a une Base de Donnees Climatologiques“. (“Analysis and Modeling of Probabilistic Data by Mixture Decomposition of Copula Functions and Application to a Climate Database“)
Advisors: A. Chedin (LMD/IPSL/CNRS) and E.Diday (U. Dauphine).
Defended on December 6, 2002, at the University Paris-Dauphine.
PhD manuscript here

My “Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches” (HDR – Sciences de l’Environnement, UVSQ)

“Modélisations statistiques à différentes échelles climatiques et environnementales“
Defended on March 30, 2012

R packages

  • The “SBCK” (Statistical Bias Correction Kit) R package, implementing several (univariate and multivariate) bias correction methods – including CDF-t, R2D2 and dOTC – with a unified interface to facilitate their use
  • The “ECBC” R package developed for the Vrac and Friederichs (2014) paper.
  • The “hparetomixt” R package developed for the Carreau & Vrac (2011) paper. This package provides the so-called “Hybrid Pareto mixture” density in its unconditional version. The ANN-conditional version should come soon.
  • The “CDFt” R package (updated on June, 25, 2010) developed for the Michelangeli et al. (2009) paper.
  • The”CCMtools” R package developed for the Vrac and Yiou (2010) paper.
  • The “NHMixt” R package (version beta) developed for the Vrac and Naveau (2007) paper.
  • The “gaussDiff” R package developed for the Rust et al. (2010) paper.
  • Projects – Working groups – Research teams
    • The ESTIM’R (Extremes – Statistics – Impacts – Regionalization) team (my team)
    • The StaRMIP project (Statistical regionalization Models and Hydrological Impacts Intercomparison Project, ANR, 2013-2016)
    • DRIAS – Futures of Climate
    • Groupement d’Intérêt Scientifique (GIS) ‘Climat – Environnement – Société‘
    • Extreme Events – Causes and Consequences (E2C2)
    • ANR ‘AssimilEx‘ (Assimilation of Extreme events)
    • Statistiques pour l’Analyse, la Modélisation et l’Assimilation (SAMA)
    • ANR MedUP (Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events : Uncertainties and Propagation on environment)
    • Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability (Med-CliVar)
    • African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA)
    • Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase II (PMIP2)